Dean's defeat in Iowa sowed two major trends in news reporting:
- Dean is an arrogant jerk who is likely done for.
- Kerry is the comeback kid. Hooray!
#2 would still exist if the Iowa order was the same, but the precentages were closer. #1 wouldn't exist if the numbers had been closer. Sure, Kerry pulled an upset, but Dean's defeat would have been diluted by the close numbers.
So...
In New Hampshire, the prevailing wisdom on this site seems to be that Dean needs atleast a second place finish. I say, second place is wonderful, but if it's distant second, forget about it. It's as good as fourth. The news reports will be "Dean gets ass kicked again" rather than "Dean holds strong 2nd"
I know he has a lot of money and organization in other states, but that is almost wasted if some momentum can't be generated in NH.