On a day when most of the attention (rightfully) has been on the President's speech in DC, there is a little bit of campaign and polling news waiting for us. So, on that note, let's wrap up this Thursday on the campaign trail.
NATIONAL: Is Anyone Still Willing To Admit to Being A Republican?
Pew Research has been tracking voter self-identification, and they find the Republican Party at an incredibly low ebb--23%. They also see a rise in Independents (36%), with Democrats holding reasonably steady at 35%.
NATIONAL: Obama Leads GOP Pack With Only 42 Months To Go Until Election Day!!
Always good to get early data, but PPP might be engaged in a bit of overkill. The boys at PPP poll Election Day 2012, with President Obama stacked up against a quartet of potential GOP rivals. The bottom line: landslides all the way around. Obama leads Mike Huckabee by thirteen (52-39), Newt Gingrich by seventeen (53-36), Mitt Romney by eighteen (53-35), and Sarah Palin by nineteen (56-37). Interestingly, they also polled approval ratings: once-and-apparently-future GOP spokesman Newt Gingrich was at the bottom, with 30% favorability.
CO-GOV: Democratic Governor Gets His First Serious Opponent
Scott McInnis, a former Congressman who has been oft-mentioned over the years for statewide office, will challenge Governor Bill Ritter (D) in next year's election. He has already walked into some controversy--apparently, you cannot raise money for your campaign or formally announce your campaign until you file with the Secretary of State. A watchdog group is claiming McInnis did just that.
FL-GOV: Florida GOP Appears To Clear The Field For McCollum
Bowing to pressure from the state GOP chairman, state agriculture commissioner Charlie Bronson has elected to forgo a bid to be elected governor next year. However, he did hedge his bets a bit, beginning his declaration of non-candidacy with three crucial words: "At this time." This apparent decision makes it almost certain that the 2010 Florida governors race will be between GOP attorney general Bill McCollum (a former Orlando-area Congressman) and Democratic state chief financial officer Alex Sink. A poll released earlier this week by Mason Dixon gave McCollum a nominal six-point edge.
MN-GOV: Pawlenty No Shoo-In For Re-Election, Says SUSA
SurveyUSA, in their latest Election 2010 polling, have paired up Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty with practically every possible candidate for the office in 2010. Three of them actually manage to keep the incumbent under 50%. The closest race would be against former Democratic Senator Mark Dayton, who holds T-Paw to just a four point lead (47-43). Also holding the incumbent to a lead within the margin of error was Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, who trails Pawlenty by just five points (47-42). St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman also holds Pawlenty under the magical 50% threshold, but the lead is considerably wider (48-37).
NY-SEN: Yet ANOTHER Democratic Rep. Whispering About A Senate Bid??
Give Crisitunity over at Swing State Project the award for the best analogy of the week. Discussing today's news out of New York, where we learn that longtime Bronx Congressman Jose Serrano is talking about running for the Senate, he compares the flurry of Democratic members of the House hinting at Senate bids to a giant game of Whack-A-Mole. Gillibrand, however, did pick up three key delegation endorsements (Arcuri, Hall, Murphy). Also, diarist devtob reports that the director of the Marist poll is also bullish on Gillibrand's chances.
PA-SEN: DSCC Poll Shows Specter Dominant in Potential Dem Primary
Taegan Goddard reported earlier today that the DSCC commissioned a poll on a potential Democratic primary in the PA-Senate race. The poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, found Arlen Specter up on Joe Sestak by a 56-16 margin.