In a bit less than two weeks, on June 9, Democrats in the Old Dominion will select their candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor (only one person is on the ballot for Attorney General).
Actually, that is not quite true, since in Virginia we do not register by party. Thus any registered voter may cast a ballot. And since there is no Republican pary (one can vote in only one primary at a time) except in a very few House of Delegates districts, almost all of the voter of Virginia are eligible to participate.
The problem is, we have little experience with voting for candidates for both Governor and Lieutenant Governor. The last time we had a contest for the Dem nominee for Governor was in 1985, when we selected Gerry Baliles at a convention. And our last primary for governor was in 1977, when populist Henry Howell narrowly defeated Andrew Miller, only to lose the general to Mills Godwin, the only man elected governor first as a Dem and then - this time - as a Republican.
That makes our primary something hard to analyze. But below the fold I will offer a bit of information that might help, or might simply confuse you more.
We have had contested primaries for Lieutenant Governor. Four years ago Leslie Byrne defeated Chap Petersen, Phil Puckett and Viola Baskerville in a contest that drew only 115,000 voters. At the same time the Republican primary saw 175,000 people select AG Kilgore as the gubernatorial candidate in a race that really was not a contest, and 170,000 picked State Senator Bill Bolling for Lt. Gov. over Prince William Supervisor Sean Connaughton. Bolling would go on to defeat Byrne in the general.
IIRC, in the Dem primary for Senator in 2006, Jim Webb defeated Harris Miller in a race that drew about 160,000 voters. That turnout represented about 3% of the voters.
That may seem like a miniscule proportion. But remember, (1) we do not register by party, (2) it is probably best to assume that the state is roughly equally divided among Dems, Repubs, and Independents, and thus (3) the turnout represents just under 10% of those who considered themselves Democrats.
No one knows how many will turn out for this primary. Early absentee voting has already begun, which is how I voted to today. And it is not just how many, but who, from what parts of the state.
Polling races like these is exceedingly difficult, as one might imagine. Who is a likely voter? If one examine the recent PPP poll, one saw McAuliffe ahead with Dees and Moran basically tied. But if one excluded from the sample those who may have voted in the 2008 primary but not in previous primaries, among those remaining Deeds actually led.
The Lt. Gov's polls show Jody Wagner holding on to a bit over 20% of the vote. In what has gone from a 5-way down to a 2-way race, Mike Signer is now drawing 11% to her 21% or so. But about two weeks out, that means over 2/3 of the potential voters were still not even leaning towards one of the two remaining candidates.
In a sense there is more from previous cycles on which one can draw to analyze the Lt. Gov. race. In this case there is a clear insider candidate - Jody Wagner ran for Congress in 2000, losing narrowly. Since then she served as Treasurer of Virginia under Dem. Governor Mark Warner and Secretary of Finance under Dem. Governor Tim Kaine. We have examples of the insider candidate against the insurgent in a number of recent races, and those examples should not give Wagner much comfort, especially given the large share that is undecided. In 1989 businessman Don Beyer upset longtime senator Dick Saslaw for the nomination for Lt. Gov - Beyer when on to serve two terms. In 2006 Jim Webb was the outsider against long term party activist Harris Miller, but defeated him comfortably in the primary, despite being heavily outspent. And in 2001 then Richmond Mayor Tim Kaine upset party insider Alan Diamonsteen for the Lt Gog nomination, and then went on to serve as Lt. Gov and now is in his final year as Governor.
Virginia only allows governors to serve one term at a time. The only person to serve twice, in non-consecutive terms, was Mills Godwin.
And Virginia also has an interesting pattern of electing as governor the party that the year before lost the presidency. Consider this pattern, beginning about 3 decades ago:
President elected year Governor elected year
Carter (D) 1976 Dalton (R) 1977
Reagan (R) 1980 Robb (D) 1981
Reagan (R) 1984 Baliles (D) 1985
Bush 41 (R) 1988 Wilder (D) 1989
Clinton (D) 1992 Allen (R) 1993
Clinton (D) 1996 Gilmore (R) 1997
Bush 43 (R) 2000 Warner (D) 2001
Bush 45 (R) 2004 Kaine (D) 2005
So given the election of Obama, one of course wonders if the pattern will continue. Here it is worth noting that the pattern only began in the 76-77 time period, and one should remember that correlation does not necessarily indicate any causation.
Virginia is decreasingly Republican in its orientation over the past few years. And before knowing the shape of the tickets of the two parties, trying to predict the outcome of the general election in November is more than foolhardy.
As noted in passing, I have already voted for this primary, as I will be out of state on primary day, returning from Florida will I will be reading AP Government exams. My preferences are well known - I voted for Creigh Deeds for Governor and for the "insurgent" Mike Signer for Lt. Gov. I have no idea how either race will ultimately turn out - I could be 2/2, 1/2 either way or 0/2. All I know is that each man now has a vote for me.
And like everyone else watching this race, I will be trying to figure out what will happen.
Earlier some were predicting a turnout of over 350,000, which would be considered massive compared to previous primaries. I find that hard to imagine. But I also think there is enough interest that it will exceed the turnout in the Senate primary three years ago. I can offer all kinds of scenarios by which each of the 3 running for governor could win, although I think the evidence right now gives the edge to McAuliffe. I would not ascribe as great an advantage to Wagner in the LG race.
That said? I really do not know. I voted for those I thought could best serve in the respective offices. And now, like the rest of you, I will watch and try to figure out what is going on.
Peace.