I watched the MTP interview, and while I was enraged by his arrogance and lies, I thought he did a good job
politically, and that includes his response to the AWOL allegations. Basically, I didn't see the train wreck that everyone on Kos saw. I actually think many of his responses will work. "9/11 is to blame for the deficit and loss of jobs" / "As President, I have to protect the country, and that is the decision I made with Iraq" / etc. etc. It is all bullshit, and we know it, but I honestly think a lot of people will be satisfied with those responses, particularly when Bush will be able to point out that when put in the position, Kerry sided with Bush about the war.
I am VERY concerned by the drunkenness that is sweeping this board. Everyone is convinced Bush is toast (Kos called it Bush's "death spiral"). They are convinced Kerry's military record is a panacea and a vaccination to all things foreign policy, even though historically military record never influences voters (well, except for Ike).
Bush is NOT to be underestimated. He is a talented politician, and has an amazing soft touch. We people in Berkeley and Mass and Manhattan tend to not understand how Bush's demeanor plays to middle Americans. The very things we snigger and laugh about are the things they like about him.
Bush just had the worst 2 weeks of his presidency, what with the new Medicare costs, and the Kaye stuff. I actually think the bad news started with the Mars thing, because it offended a lot of Republican women who want to see some tight purse strings right now. At the same time, people have been watching the Dem primary battle, and many of them are hearing these criticisms of Bush for the first time.
What I am saying is that we are at a very specific point in the cycle, and it is only natural for Bush to take a hit. So I think we need to stop being so sure the man is done. Kerry will possibly never be this popular again, once the media-vetting period starts (you know, that thing that USUALLY occurs before the person is chosen as the nominee).
I'm not trying to burst anyone's bubble, I just remember when Dukakis had a 25 point lead over Bush Sr.