WDXPIX.com
So get this -- Sen. Arlen Specter quits the Republican Party because, in his words:
I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate.
In that same statement he promises to NOT be a loyal Democrat and will continue to oppose a key Democratic initiative -- one that he supported until he flipped in hopes of currying favor with the GOP primary electorate:
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans ... For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
Then, in his first week as a Democrat, he voted against the Democratic budget, said he'll oppose a key component of Obama's health care plan, and visibly recoiled at the suggestion that he might show some loyalty to his new party:
I did not say I would be a loyal Democrat. I did not say that.
Glad you've made that perfectly clear, Arlen. But suddenly I'm wondering ... how exactly do you expect to win a Democratic primary given that you oppose Obama's two biggest policy initiatives at the moment, while also insulting the party you belong to? If you wanted to chart an "independent" course or whatever bullshit you want to call that, why not run as the Connecticut for Lieberman Party nominee? So why is he setting himself up to be judged by the Democratic primary electorate, and doing such a poor job of ingratiating himself with them?
There are two possibilities:
- Arlen plans on flipping on EFCA, and once he does, labor support locks him in the Democratic primary. He just can't flip too quickly because he would a) look even more unprincipled and craven than he already is, and b) he wouldn't be making headlines and be the center of attention, which he clearly loves. (He's making Lieberman really jealous).
- Arlen got a deal from the Democrats that they'd clear the primary field for him, and Obama, Rendell, Biden, and the DSCC plan to do everything they can to deliver on that.
If it's #1 above, then he's in good shape. He just needs to flip already. But if it's #2, we're going to see the biggest split between the party establishment and the party's rank and file since the Connecticut 2006 Senate race. Heck, this one will be bigger. And it will be lots of fun -- the party bigwigs who think they can deprive the Democratic primary electorate of democracy versus a new net- and grassroots army taking control of their own destiny. I get shivers just thinking about it!
And isn't it something that Netroots Nation is in Pennsylvania this year? Synchronicity!
Joe Sestak has amped up his interest in a primary, understanding that it'll all really come down to Specter -- will he or won't he on EFCA?
“I cannot see the unions across the board supporting Specter if he cannot support EFCA,” Sestak said in an interview with me a few moments ago. “[Stern] let it be known that it’s very much on the top of their agenda.”
Sestak cautioned that Stern didn’t directly address the 2010 primary. But he said the meeting went “great,” strongly suggesting that SEIU is seriously considering supporting him or another primary challenger to Specter. “It was very clear that there were a number of issues we agree on,” Sestak said of his much-anticipated meeting with Stern.
Sestak also confirmed that he’d almost certainly get in the race if Specter doesn’t show a major ideological change of heart. “If he doesn’t demonstrate that he has shifted his position on a number of issues, I would not hesitate at all to get in,” Sestak said.
The AFL-CIO is making similar noise:
"Those decisions will be made by people in the state, and our members in the state know who will stand with them," Richard Trumka, the secretary-treasurer of the AFL-CIO, told ABC's Top Line. "And if Arlen Specter -- he stood with them in the past -- if he continues to stand with them, they'll support him. If he doesn't, they won't support him."
Sestak also went on Big Ed's show to talk about Specter's convictions, or lack thereof:
If it's just for political survivability, it's not enough.
The beauty of Sestak's approach is that it's a win-win -- 1) the threat of a serious challenge either gets Specter to switch on EFCA and other key progressive priorities, or 2) we get ourselves the race of the cycle and get to relive the glory days of the 2006 Connecticut Senate primary.
We've got a poll currently in the field that will give us a good look at the current state of both the Democratic and Republican primaries. Of particular note will be the Ridge v Toomey primary numbers, since no one has polled those yet. Results are due Thursday.