There are several pieces of news out today.
- In past two days, Deeds campaign has gotten about 10,000 signs up in NoVa, and they tout his Washington Post endorsement
- PPP has new poll coming out tonight, between 10-11 PM. Tom Jensen in this blog post said that the undecideds are breaking heavily one way, and that the only battle seems to be for 2nd place.
UPDATE PPP out Deeds 40, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. Leading except in Hampton Roads (even in NoVa). Read the poll here
And come below the fold for some more . . . including crosstabs!
UPDATE in a comment below Jerome Armstrong accuses me of lying. I noted in response my source for the statement that Aimee was "head" - Jerome has NOT responded there, which is the most widely read Virginia blog Not Larry Sabato. I am offering this so my readers will know I don't make things up. MORE - Ben has posted an update at NLS in which he writes in response to Jerome's comments here: "Now the Moran campaign is attacking Aimee- saying her position as head of "Students for Moran" was "self appointed". Actually when we did the debate at Virginia Tech, she was the campaign point of contact for the activities going on outside the building. I'm not clear if she was head of Students for Moran at Tech, or statewide, but either way Brian ought to step in here and tell his staff to stop attacking people not on the ballot Tuesday."
- Aimee Fausser was head of Students for Moran at Virginia Tech (this is a clarification). Note the past tense. She posted this at New Dominion Project, a pro-Moran website, explaining why she has switched to Creigh Deeds. Let me offer a snip as to why:
Creigh Deeds is not afraid to fight for what he believes in. One of the positions I most admire was Creigh's attempt to broker a compromise to close the gun show loophole. Creigh's positions are pragmatic and he has shown real leadership, proving to be more concerned with creating actual progress in Virginia than taking an easy position. The other day, I saw this clip of Brian Moran calling Creigh a radical on gun issues. This is ridiculous to me, and really made me upset with Brian. I feel that the negativity that is coming from Brian and Terry's campaigns stands in contrast to the campaign Creigh has run, and of the three races, I think Creigh's exemplifies best what Virginia needs moving forward.
I believe Jensen now thinks turnout will be 300,000 or more, which is much higher than most other people were predicting. But if in fact there is late movement from people who were undecided - and thus possibly not voting - perhaps it could get that high. Steve Jarding of Moran's campaign has said he thinks 200,000. For comparison, even that is more than 40,000 more than in the Webb-Miller Senate primary in 2006, and 85,000 more than the 4-way LT Gov primary in 2005.
McAuliffe has a huge (for Virginia) paid field staff, and they have been set up for GOTV for quite some time. But some of Deeds supporters, particularly among his fellow state Senators but also including some others like Delegate Al Pollard, are apparently working their networks hard on Creigh's behalf.
Exactly one month ago I endorsed Creigh in this diary, in which I noted
Creigh's passion for Virginia and its people is palpable. It is what drives him to public service. When people disagree with him, he is willing to listen, and sometimes to change. For example, on the matter of the anti-gay marriage amendment, Creigh says that he is a work in progress. People can grow when they encounter ideas that challenge their preconceptions, especially when they see the reality of the impact of those preconceptions on the lives of others.
I don't think there is any doubt that Creigh would be a formidable candidate against Bob McDonnell in a general, with his ability to draw from parts of the state that are not traditionally as strongly Democratic. He has shown wise management of the campaign funds he has raised.
All of these are good but insufficient reasons for deciding to vote FOR Creigh Deeds. In my mind there is ultimately only one reason, and it is this: I have no doubt that he would be a superb Governor, able to bring people together. While I do not doubt that his two opponents could be very good governors, which is why I have no hesitation in saying I will support either with enthusiasm as nominee, I strongly believe Creigh would be the best governor.
That was before the Washington Post endorsed Creigh, and also did a follow up editorial on his behalf. The Post endorsement carries a fair amount of weight across Virginia.
And one final note - another poll just out, from an email from UnitedVirginia.org:
Below are current results of the top two Democratic races from United Virginia's Pre-Nomination Poll of Virginia's political organizers, as well as the link to take the survey. Final poll results will be provided on UV's website before Tuesday's Democratic primary. Anyone is eligible to vote on Tuesday.
Thanks,
Jim
Support for Governor of Virginia:
* Creigh Deeds (D) - 37%
* Terry McAuliffe (D) - 26%
* Brian Moran (D) - 34%
* Undecided- 3%
Support for Va.'s Lt. Governor:
* Mike Signer (D) - 27%
* Jody Wagner (D) - 58%
* Undecided - 15%
Note that this is NOT a scientific poll, but it does include the sentiments of those who are political organizers.
Not making any predictions yet in either race. But things are getting interesting.
Crosstabs on PPP
Women 40-25-25
Men 40-27-25
Fav-Unfav
Deeds 57-14
McAuliffe 40-40
Moran 47-23
Dems-Repubs-Others
Deeds 37-44-50
McAuliffe 27-20-23
Moran
White - AA - Hispanic - Other
Deeds 46 31 18 28
McAuliffe 23 32 26 32
Moran 24 23 41 18
Poll Makeup
White-Black-Hispanic-Other
64 29 3 4
75% Dem, 6% Repub 20% Other
By area code:
276 5%
434 10%
540 15%
703 31%
757 20%
804 20%
Stay tuned.
Peace