Preliminary results show that the March 14 coalition (comprising Sunni Muslims, Druze and right-wing Christians) has won the elections in Lebanon. So far, March 14 has won (66) 68 seats, (down 2 seats from the 2005 election) in the 128-seat Chamber of Deputies and the March 8 Group (comprising Christians, some secularists and Shiite Muslims) has won (62) 57 with independents taking 3, a net gain for March 8/Opposition of 3 seats. There may be some shifts in these numbers as they are finalized but I'm reasonably confident of a government win. Election turnout was about 52%, higher than the 2005 turnout of around 46%.
For those of you who would like some background on the major players, please see my earlier diary: Quick and Dirty Guide to the Lebanese Elections for a round-up.
I also offer the disclaimer that some of what follows is my personal view and those of unnamed sources both inside and outside Lebanon who of course wish to remain anonymous. Additionally, I have been following the news on LBC, Orange TV and Future TV, Lebanese television stations that are aligned with both sides of the political divide.
This Diary can be summarized on one line:
Nothing has changed.
As expected, the Christian votes in North Lebanon swung the election. The Sunni, Shiite and Druze votes were pretty much a foregone conclusion but the Christian vote was up for grabs. Here is a partial listing of the current results (in English, scroll down)pending confirmation by the Ministry of the Interior (I've added results from Arabic websites below to fill out the rest):
South Lebanon : 23 seats
March 14: 2
March 8/Opposition: 21
No surprises here. Hizbullah and Amal (March 8) triumphed. The Christian seats in Jezzine and Zahrany also went to March 8. The only exception in the south is Saida/Sidon which went to March 14. This is unsurprising since Saida is the hometown of Sa'ad Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Fouad Siniora and Bahia Hariri won Saida.
Beka'a: 23 seats
March 14: 13
March 8/Opposition: 10
These results are a bit more suspicious. Baalbek-Hermel district's 10 seats all went to March 8 but the big shock is Zahle. March 14 has won all 7 seats, including Shiite, Greek Catholic, Greek Orthodox and Armenian Orthodox seats, results that are suprising to say the least. Tayyar (Aoun March 8) is reporting that Elias al-Skaff and Camil al-Maalouf have retained their seats for March 8 but I'll stick to the above results for now.
North Lebanon: 28 seats
March 14: 25
March 8/Opposition: 3
These results are completely shocking. Polling showed a narrow March 8 win but this result is a whitewash. I thought March 8 would win Koura, Batroun and Zgharta outright and then some seats in Akkar and Tripoli. However, only Sleiman Franjieh's Marada swept the 3 seats of Zgharta and all the rest of the seats went to March 14. This result on its own was enough to turn the result to March 14. This shows a greater regional segmentation of the Christian vote than I would have expected.
Mount Lebanon: 35 seats
March 14: 14
March 8/Opposition: 26
Future TV (March 14) was reporting that they have swept all of the Metn's 8 Christian seats. However Tayyar.orghas reported (in Arabic) that March 8 has taken 6 seats with Michel al-Murr retaining his and Sami Gemayel, son of Amin, gaining one for the Phalange. I've gone with tayyar (website of Free Patriotic Movement - Michel Aoun's party) on these results because I know that it is not possible for March 14 to sweep all the Metn seats since one of those seats is held by Hagop Pakradounian, an Armenian Orthodox who is running uncontested.
Beirut: 19 seats
March 14: 17
March 8/Opposition: 2
These results are as expected with more dynastic flavor to them: Nadim Gemayel, son of slain President Bachir won a Maronite seat and Nayla Tueni, daughter of slain politician Gibran won a Greek Orthodox seat.
Where do we go from here?
Lebanon is basically in the same place politically except that there is now a narrower majority for the government (a result that will have to be finalised). The process of forming a government will now take place. The government will still need the support of the opposition to pass matters relating to the constitution since these issues require a two-thirds majority in parliament. Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader aligned with March 14 has already called for a national unity government on television.
There has been speculation for months now that Hizbullah does not want to form part of the government, preferring the freedom of the opposition rather than the compromise of governing. I don't find that argument completely persuasive because the electoral system itself constains Hizbullah. The seats in the Chamber of Deputies are split evenly between Christian and Muslim (giving disproportionate representation to Christians who are approximately 40% of the population). The Muslim seats are then split evenly between the Muslim sects. The only way Hizbullah and Amal can increase their representation is to gain the support of Sunnis and Christians in their seats. They have done so with Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement where 26 of the Christian seats have gone to Aoun. A few more Christian seats in Koura, Batroun, or Zahle could have shifted this election entirely to March 8. One could argue that some in Hizbullah don't mind this constraint, particularly the military wing, but those I know on the political side were desperately hoping for a win followed by a national unity government to avoid US sanctions.
The lesson that I would draw from this is that if the sects were represented according to their size in terms of population, you would quite probably have an opposition win due to the fact that the Shiites would have greater representation and the Christians far less.
There has been pressure put upon the Lebanese both internally and externally. The Maronite and Syrian Orthodox patriarchs have been actively calling for their members to vote for the government. There have been visits by Joe Biden, Hilary Clinton, and Jeremy Feltman, all seen as warnings to vote for the government and threatening to withhold aid at least and bring sanctions at worse. March 14 has engaged heavily in funding flights for citizens outside Lebanon to return to vote, funding provided by Hariri and Saudi Arabia. Anecdotal evidence suggests they have completely outdone any funding supplied by Iran for these purposes. (Michel Aoun's FPM is well-known for not having large well-funded backers and asking its candidates to dig into their own pockets for campaign purposes). I must admit that I find these sorts of pressures intolerable in a democracy but it is once again another example of other countries using Lebanon as a microcosmic playground for their antagonisms.
The March 9 opposition also ran a mixed campaign. Combined with some of the best political adverstising were the mis-steps by Aoun and Nasrallah. Aoun visited Syria and Iran in the months before the elections and Hizbollah operatives supplying arms to Hamas were arrested in Egypt. Nasrallah usually acute political acumen failed him as he gave a speech about this recently that was not well received. Since just a few Christian seats flipped the balance and there were only a few thousand votes in it, it's quite possible these factors also combined to influence the course of the election.
In an earlier diary on the election results, there was much jubilation about a March 14 win. All I can say is that in Lebanon, you really need to be careful whom you support. Both sides have groups that committed atrocities during the Civil War. Hizbullah still operates its own militia and carries out foreign and military policy independent of the national government. The government side includes Christians who are fascists as well as Muslim fundamentalists of the Wahhabi-Salafi-Sharia law-I heart al-Qaeda type. Strange bedfellows I know, but consistency is not a strong point with a lot of players in Middle East politics, including the US and its support for autocratic and repressive regimes.
The last thing I think should be taken away from this election is that unless Lebanon's electoral system is reformed, you are going to continue having electoral stalemate. With the current composition of the Chamber of Deputies, current political divides have become entrenched. My suggestion would be to move to a system of proportional representation with a senateto protect the rights of the minority confessions. We need to move to a new system so that secularism rather than sectarianism can be encouraged. I think the Christians are short-sighted in not supporting this because if in the future Shiites and Sunnis reconcile, Christians will be pushed out of any influence at all.
Updated to add: there is another diary posted right before this one that is crediting the March 14 win (in part I suppose) to President Obama's speech in Cairo. I must admit that it did not occur to me that it would sway minds either way. All my discussions with Lebanese and in Lebanese media since the speech have centered on the cautious theme: 'Nice words, but we'll believe the change in US policy when we see it'. Given all the other influences, I'd say the influence of Obama's speech on the Lebanese election was small at best. Perhaps one could make a case for the good cop/bad cop routine - Obama as good cop, Biden/Feltman as bad cop?