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Blacks poised to pack polls
Iraq war, 2000 election cited for surge of new registrants
By ANNA VARELA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/02/04
A surge in voter registration has some African-American leaders predicting high black voter turnout on Nov. 2, even though Georgia is not viewed as a swing state in the presidential race.
The Georgia secretary of state's office and local election boards are struggling to keep up with a huge increase in registration paperwork, much of it from African-Americans. From Jan. 1 through Sept. 23, the state registered 332,869 new voters — 34 percent of them African-American, according to data provided by the secretary of state's office. During the last several election cycles, blacks have accounted for only about 25 percent of registered voters in Georgia.
The Rev. Timothy McDonald III, pastor of Atlanta's First Iconium Baptist Church, said blacks are frustrated about the war in Iraq and the sluggish economy, and are still angry over the 2000 election.
"I think this go-round we're going to see one of the largest turnouts of new registrants voting," said McDonald, who has preached voter registration from his pulpit, and is working with organized groups including Concerned Black Clergy.
"You hear it. You feel it. I think the registration numbers reflect that," McDonald said.
Richard Grigsby, director of voting for the Southern Regional Council, a civil rights group based in Atlanta, also expects strong turnout.
"I believe African-Americans have another issue that is overriding: the feeling of being disenfranchised, of the election being stolen in 2000," Grigsby said.
African-American voters have a long history of supporting Democrats, but it's unclear how much of a difference the increase in black voter registration will make on Nov. 2.
Many experts caution that it's easy to add people to the voter rolls but hard to get them to show up at the polls. State data show that well over half of new registrants don't vote. But voter registration groups say they are prepared to shift into get-out-the-vote mode as soon as they get through Monday, the last day on which voters can register for the election.
Target marketing
Numerous organizations are working to register potential voters, and many are targeting communities with high concentrations of unregistered blacks.
For example, volunteers with the nonpartisan group Georgia for Democracy have focused on registering minority voters in DeKalb County, which is majority black. More than 31,000 people have been added to the voter rolls in DeKalb so far this year, 61 percent of them black. By comparison, 52.5 percent of DeKalb's registered voters were black on June 1.
Georgia for Democracy, a nonprofit created by former supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean, promotes "progressive values," according to its Web site. Susan Keith, director of visibility for the organization, said the group is focusing on DeKalb because that is where many members live. She agrees that black voters are likely to support the group's positions in favor of universal health care, stronger environmental protections and fewer tax breaks for big corporations.
Though Keith plans to vote for Democratic candidates, she's careful to avoid making a direct connection between the work of her organization and the fact that blacks overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. "We're just targeting minorities," she said.
Some nonpartisan and Democratic-leaning groups have found new, free tools on the Internet that make it easier to target unregistered black voters. Two Web sites — fairdata2000.com and techpolitics.org — allow users to pull up precinct lists and maps of Georgia and several other states that get down to street level. Blue circles indicate unregistered African-Americans. The bigger the blue circle, the more unregistered people. Several academics and voting-rights groups say that such detailed information was not available to the public in 2000.
"This is down almost to the house level," said Ken Colburn, a retired legislative director for the Congressional Black Caucus who has part- nered with political researcher Bill Cooper on the Web sites.
'Going to be surprising'
Colburn is candid about his support for Democrats, though the Web sites are not openly partisan.
"The idea is to get this data out so these various groups can use it, go at people," he said. "We want the folks who are essentially Democrats to go forward."
Helen Butler, state director for a nonpartisan group called Voices for Working Families, has used techpolitics.org to help her target unregistered African-Americans for voter drives.
She also predicts a strong turnout among black voters. "I think it's going to be surprising."
Experts caution that Georgia has a history of low voter turnout. And they say it's hard to get newly registered people to actually vote. From Jan. 1, 2000 though June, Georgia added about 677,000 people to the rolls who have never cast a ballot. Over that period, a little more than 1 million people registered, meaning more than 60 percent of them have never voted.
"It's probably harder to get a newly registered voter to the polls than somebody who's been voting, who's been registered for the past 10 years," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. "It's a habit-forming thing."
The black share of Georgia's turnout has been steady at 22 percent to 23 percent going back to 1998, a period when blacks were about 25 percent of all registered voters, Bullock said.
Bullock also said it's hard to make any sweeping statements about what the increase in black voter registration might mean for Democratic candidates.
The presidential and U.S. Senate races don't seem close enough in Georgia for the increase to make a difference, Bullock said.
"If this were Florida in 2000, yes, it would make a difference," he said.
Ensuring turnout
Democrat Denise Majette, an African-American congresswoman running for U.S. Senate, would still need to get about 40 percent of the white vote, combined with strong black support, to win, Bullock said.
In metro Atlanta, he said, the increase in black voter registration suggests that the Republican hold on Cobb, Gwinnett and Rockdale counties may be slipping.
Several of the groups that have been registering voters say they will urge those new voters to go to the pollsand help them get there.
Some are already making appointments for people who need transportation for advance voting — which allows people to vote during the workweek before the election without having to cite any special need — or on Nov. 2.
And some say they also will target people who are registered but have never voted.
Grigsby, of the Southern Regional Council, said he is hearing from community activists who feel that the stakes are higher than four years ago.
"I do get a sense that there are grass-roots organizations that are more involved or more committed than they were in 2000," Grigsby said.
Kelli Potts, a stay-at-home mother in Buckhead, thinks there is a good chance that blacks will turn out in high numbers.
Potts recently volunteered for a phone-a-thon with 75 other people, calling female voters, minorities and newly registered voters to urge them to go to the polls.
Most of the African-Americans she talked to were enthusiastic about voting, she said.
"Just from the indicators that we've had from our phone bank, I feel optimistic. I feel that we're going to have huge numbers turn out."
Greg Martin, a black student at Columbus State University, said he's eager to vote for the first time.
The 18-year-old music student plans to vote for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry, largely because he believes the Iraq war is diverting money and attention from America's domestic problems.
"So many people fought, African-Americans, for the right to vote, that I just don't think it would be right not to," Martin said.
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