First off, I would like to start by saying this is only my second diary in the approximately 6 months I have been a registered user, so I am going to guess that 100% of the people reading this do not recognize my user name, but I hope that changes. I happen to be a major political junkie, and tend the find senate races the most interesting of all political races for public office, and hope to have a somewhat accurate outlook to what is ahead in the 2010 Senate Elections.
My future updates will be sporadic, due to the fact that I am heading to College in mid-August, where I hope to major in either Journalism or Political Science. I will try to write a general diary at least once a month that updates all the races, and write up about specific races if any major game changing events occur. Each race is ranked similarly to the way Nate Silver does it over at his FiveThirtyEight blog, in which races are ranked by likely hood of the current seat changing parties. With all the boring stuff out of the way, lets get on with the show.
If the election were held today, the most vulnerable seats would be:
1. Kentucky's Seat Held By Jim Bunning* (R)
After reports of Jimmy boy retiring back in early January, many felt that this seat would have stayed in Republican hands, but lo and behold, everyone's favorite senator from the Bluegrass state still going to run, and no one is going to tell him otherwise. With Approval ratings back in April tanking at 28%, and an unknown state senator almost winning the seat in 2004, it looks as if this is seat is all but assured if Bunning wins the primary. The cherry on top of this whole this is that it now looks like there may be some infighting leading up to the primary with Rand Paul and Kentucky SOS stating they will run in the primary if Bunning bows out. Bunning is to hard headed to bow out and let his party keep one of its precious senate seats, because of this, his funding will likely stay low throughout the general election if his second quarter earnings are any indication. By contrast, Kentucky's Democratic AG, Jack Conway has raised more than double what Bunning has with a not-to-modest $1.32 Million. *NOTE: Alas, on the last day I compile my list, Jim Bunning goes out and says he is not running for re-election due to low fundraising, apparently Bunning believes that McConnell dried to dry up his funds to prevent him from running again. This race drops immensely in the rankings, but I would like to get this post out without a major revision, so look at this newly ranked next time. Now if only Bunning would make good on a supposed statement.
2. Missouri's Open Seat (R)
The battle of the Missouri political Dynasties! With Missouri losing its bellwether status in 2008, this race would have further thrown off America's political attitude had the popular Kit Bond not announced his retirement, with early polls showing that he was leading the prospective Democratic challenger by as much as 4 points back in December. But thats old news, the race is pretty much between Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan, both being relatives of well known Missouri public officials. This race looks kinda like a no brainer, Roy Blunt, while being the father of unpopular former Governor Matt Blunt, has never ran or been elected to a statewide public office, while Carnahan has done so twice.
3. New Hampshire's Open Seat (R)
Good News for Republicans: Fairly popular AG Kelly Ayotte is resigning from her post to run for senate in New Hampshire. Bad News for Republicans: She is a Republican. While New Hampshire has a pretty large Libertarian streak to all their public officials, the Republican brand isn't getting any better in New England, and it looks as if the only north eastern state to vote for Bush in 2000 may shed its final federal Republican seat after losing its entire house delegation and other senate seat to libertarian democrats in the 2006 mid-terms. Fortunately for us, and unfortunately for the GOP, she is the best candidate that New Hampshire can come up with. But it only gets better, hard line conservatives don't want this supposed "RINO" as their nominee, and it looks like they are trying to get former gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne to run in the primary. I'd be surprised if Democratic Rep. Hodes didn't win this seat, even if he is behind by 1 point in current polling when pitted against Ayotte.
4. Ohio's Open Seat (R)
Looks like Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner have a fairly moderate lead over prospective GOP candidate and former congressman Rob Portman. Even with Obama's approval dipping bellow 50% in the Buckeye state, it still looks as if the seat will change hands if the election were held today.
5. Connecticut's Seat Held By Chris Dodd (D)
Our first seat held by a Democrat! The only iffy incumbent Democratic seat comes from the great state that brought us Joe Lieberman. Dodd's most recent polling by Quinnipiac shows that he is either polling lower or even with 3 perspective Republican candidates. While I would personally like to see Dodd gone, its probably not likely anyone can beat this 5 term Senator due to the fact that he is a good fund raiser, and has started snubbing lobbyists as a PR tactic. I would personally like to see Dodd lose a primary contest, keeping the seat in Democratic hands (hear that Ned Lamont?),take a 2 year vacation, then run for the Democratic Primary in 2012, and beat the snot out of Lieberman in the 2012 General.
6. North Carolina's Seat Held By Richard Burr (R)
In a state that is slowly becoming a more bluish-purple by the year, a seat that has not had its incumbent winning re-election since the 1970's, Burr hitting freezing territory in terms of approval, AND a recent poll showing that Burr would lose to a "Generic Democrat", this seat looks like could change hands come November 2, 2010. While it is entirely possible that this seat is maintained by Burr if democratic backlash occurs due to failures of the Obama administration, I find it unlikely at best. The only question now is who is that "Generic Democrat" going to be?
The Tossup Column:
7. Delaware's Open Seat (D)
The only reason this state is even in the top ten is because it is an open seat, and it probably wouldn't even be at this spot if anyone announced their intention to run. The closest thing we have is Republican representative, and former governor Mike Castle saying its more likely that he will run for the senate than the house. The only perspective candidate for the Democrats that hasn't declined has been AG Beau Biden. While early polling shows that Castle would beat out Biden in a senate race, with low fundraising in the second quarter and the possible loss of his birther base, Mike Castle may not be in the best position to run for higher office.
8. Colorado's Seat Held By Michael Bennet (D)
With the Republican field widening, this race looks as if it could be a lot more competitive, unfortunately for republicans this state is only going to get bluer, and while Bennet was appointed to the position, it looks like a large number of polls show he would win an election in the race were today, but it would be a squeaker. My guess is that people will become more acquainted with Bennet and re-elect him to a full term in 2010, but until this race become clearer, it is in the tossup column.
9. Illinois's Open Seat (D)
With Burris out, and Giannoulias in, this race became a whole lot less predictable. While I am fairly certain this seat will remain in Democratic hands, there is always a possibility for a competitive race in 2010
10. Louisiana's Seat Held By David Vitter (R)
While Vitter is only drawing unwanted attention to himself, and vast majority of people not wanting him to see re-election, this race looks like a no brainer, right? Wrong. For some reason, "generic democrat" has better polling numbers than the actual announced candidate. Already knowing that Louisiana is all kinds of backwards, the fact that Charlie Melancon isn't polling better is a little troubling.
11. Texas's Open Seat? (R)
What is Clear: Texas Senator Kay Baily Hutchison is running for governor What is not clear: When she will resign her senate seat, if ever. While I don't know if that makes a difference, if she resigns early enough, Rick Perry could call for a special election before the 2010 mid-terms. The prospective democratic candidate, Houston mayor Bill White, still looks like he would have a tough road ahead of him in the state that gave this nation great statesman such as John Cornyn and George Bush.
Now we head into "not likely to change party hands" territory:
12. Nevada's Sr. Seat Held By Harry Reid (D)
While the prospect of losing Harry Reid makes people on both sides of the aisle salivate, its unlikely that Reid will be beaten due to the incompetence the Republican Party of Nevada. They have yet to proclaim a front runner on what should be the most prized seat in the senate. Even if the Republicans were to put up a good candidate, in a state that is getting bluer, its unlikely that Reid would lose in on November 2nd and that is pretty sad considering the opponent has a sub 40% approval rating. Now only if we got someone to Primary him, it sure straightened out Specter, speaking of that old Party switcher...
13. Pennsylvania's Seat Held By Arlen Specter (R) (D)
I kid Specter, I kid. While the birther crowd is glad to have got rid of Specter in place of Pat Toomey, I highly doubt this guy could win a general election in Light blue Pennsylvania. It's pretty reasonable to say that this race isn't going to be defined by D vs. R, but rather D vs D. With primary challenger Joe Sestak gaining on Specter in the polls, this could end similarly to Connecticut in 2006, except this time, it would put Specter into permanent retirement. While that same poll showed that Toomey was also gaining on Specter, I suspect that once the electorate learns how conservative he is, he wont have a snowballs change in hell, but non-the-less, this is ranked at 13 due to that recent poll, don't expect this race to be as high next time around.
14. Florida's Open Seat (R)
Florida's senate race is very similar to Pennsylvania in the fact that most of the action will be coming from the primary. Charlie Crist is obviously the front runner, and will undoubtably win against Kendrick Meek if he is the nominee. Birthers aren't happy about the prospect of a moderate Republican winning that seat even thought they should be thankful to hold onto the seat in such a swing state. They will undoubtedly try to get Rubio to win the nomination, who would likely lose to anyone in the general election. Unfortunately for us progressives, Rubio is not doing to well. I have read in a lot of places that say the republican base can not, and will not vote for Crist in the primary, but I don't think it matters. Unlike every other state with the exception of Michigan, Florida never had a real Democratic Primary in 2008. Why does this matter? This is the sole reason Specter could never win the Republican nomination in Pennsylvania, all the moderates switched party affiliation to vote in the 2008 Democratic Primaries. The DNC really screwed the pooch on this one, because people don't normally change party ID unless they want to participate in a presidential primary, and Florida is a state with closed primaries. Because of this, I fully expect Crist to win the whole thing, but until that primary it stays at 14. Who knows, maybe a certain tactic can turn the tide...
15. New York's Jr. Seat Held By Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
While people initially had doubts about Gillibrand, I think most of the progressive community likes Gillibrand overall, but there still is a primary brewing in the Empire State. With that said, the idea that a Republican can overcome the hurdles that come with a state that is in the north east is questionable at best. Most recent polls with Gillibrand show she has a small lead over former governor Pataki.
16. Nevada's Jr.Open Seat
Lets face it, Ensign isn't going to resign. But Johny, if your reading this, I will keep this spot open just for you, OK?
Now for the "Snowballs Change In Hell" Column
17. California's Seat Held By Barbara Boxer (D)
It's sad to see my state so high on this list, even though Boxer did vote for cloture on that F-22 amendment. Apparently a recent Rasmussen poll reports that failed HP executive Carly Fiorina is competitive with Boxer. I would love to say this poll is a fluke because she has worse favorability ratings than boxer. Even with this new poll, I highly doubt Boxer will be ousted, because lets be honest, there are more important races in this state.
18. Wisconsin's Seat Held By Russ Feingold (D)
Russ faced a tough campaign in 1998, and won a substantial majority in 2004. I doubt this will be competitive, even if Paul Ryan does enter.
19. North Dakota's Seat Held By Byron Dorgan (D)
Midwest conservadems rarely face tough re-election. Thats why it is perhaps not surprising that the most recent poll for this race was back in February.
20. Arkansas's Seat Held By Blanche Lincoln (D)
Fun fact: Arkansas has elected only one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, who was defeated in 2002. So yeah, don't get your hopes up Republicans. Too bad that fun fact doesn't steer away would be gaffee machines.
21. Arizona's Seat Held By John McCain (R)
Apparently McCain wants to be back in black for another six years. This race has potential, even though the only person that could have possibly beaten John McCain in the general election is now the head of the DHS. Birthers are at it again, with the hope of a primary opponent that can beat McCain, they bring Minuteman Founder Chris Simcox to the table. While it is unlikely that the popular senator from Arizona will lose to Simcox, the prospect of Simcox being the nominee is intriguing. Then again, there is a reason this is number 21 on the list.
22. Iowa's Seat Held By Chuck Grassley (R)
If dems want this one, they better hope he retires, and this doesn't look like the case. To bad Vilsack isn't running.
23. Georgia's Seat Held By Johnny Isakson (R)
If Jim Martin couldn't win in 2008, don't think any opponent to this guy will. But hey, maybe things will change.
24. Hawaii's Seat Held By Daniel Inouye (D)
Inouye looks like he is going to slide to an easy re-election
25. Kansas's Open Seat (R)
This is a sad one, if she weren't head of the HHS, this would have been an easy pickup. The closest thing the Democrats have to a front runner is former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger, so yeah, this wont end well.
26. Oklahoma's Seat Held By Tom Coburn (R)
Even if Brad Henry got in, it wouldn't change to dynamics of this race to much.
27. Alaska's Seat Held By Lisa Murkowski (R)
If Palin gets in the primary, its still going to be a Republican in the seat. Palin says she wont get involved in the race, and come one, this is one of the most trustworthy people ever.
28. Maryland's Seat Held By Barbara Mikulski (D)
I could not find a single poll for this race. Looks like Mikulski may win by a Squeaker!
29. South Carolina's Seat Held By Jim Demint (R)
South Carolina is still South Carolina, but something may be brewing in the Palmetto state.
30. Washington's Seat Held By Patty Murray (D)
Washington is still Washington.
31. Alabama's Seat Held By Richard Shelby (R)
Alabama is still Ala... do I even need to finish?
32. South Dakota's Seat Held By John Thune (R)
While he only beat Tom Daschle with 51% of the vote, Thune looks like he is here to stay.
33. Utah's Seat Held By Bob Bennet (R)
Come on, why are you even looking here, this is Utah.
34. Vermont's Seat Held By Patric Leahy (D)
Even against the current governor of Vermont, Leahy has a strong lead.
35. Oregon's Seat Held By Ron Wyden (D)
With Oregon shedding its last republican senator in 2008, why would they want another one?
36. Indiana's Seat Held By Evan Byah (D)
While he does have a challenger, its not really going to make this competitive.
37. New York's Sr. Seat Held By Chuck Schumer (D)
Any interest in this race would be diverted to Gillibrand's race.
38. Idaho's Seat Held By Mike Crapo (R)
Lets be serious, the biggest challenge this guy has it to actually get people to punch the ballot for a guy who's name is Crapo. He tells us its pronounced like Cray-po, but I don't fall for his sneaky lies.
So there you have it, my 2010 Rankings for August, this did take way longer than I thought, but its all good. Expect my next ranking sometime in September.
UPDATE: I will be constantly updating this diary as I catch spelling and Grammar errors, I probably should have held off one more day before publishing to get these bugs out, bear with me while I fix this Diary.