If President Obama wants to have a chance of passing healthcare reform and his other agenda, he needs to make an example of the Blue Dogs. He does not need to make an example of all of them. Just a few to make the point that crossing him as consequences.
This story is being reported:
"The Blue Dog revolt against the House Democratic leadership's health care bill took a new turn Tuesday morning, when several members of the centrist faction made overtures to House Republicans about joining forces to slow and reshape the measure.
Republican aides said there was great interest among GOP lawmakers in trying to work with dissidents in the 52-member Blue Dog Coalition to try to stop the legislation."
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Let me translate what's happening: The GOP is not interested in reform. They are interested in killing the bill. The Blue Dogs are not interested in reform. They are interested helping corporate interests that have been lobbying them. Those interests are alligning, and they will destroy President Obama's attempt at reform.
Let me just add that the kabuki of reform that does not result in reform will not just hurt President Obama tactically, but will harm the party for a generation. This is one of those issues that has a long-term strategic element to it. Indeed, the GOP through its talking heads/strategists/pollsters like Luntz have made this abundantly clear.
The problem is that the Blue Dogs in their interest of gaming the system to favor their power and money are favoring the GOP's attempt to destroy the bill and other Democrats.
This problem, by the way, is not just coming up in this area. We have seen it occur repeatedly, including with bills like climate change. I had not dog in that race, but I could see it was yet another canary in the coalmine about what has become a patern of giving into a few Blue Dogs who not represent the majority. Now on climate change they could argue they may indeed represent the majority, but overall, when looking at healthcare, they do not. Not even close to the majority.
With healthcare, the conservatives are trying for a repeat the defeat of healthcare reform under President Clinton. Except, 2009, is not 1993. Thus, the consequences to the party will not be the same. Whereas President Clinton was president during the consolidation of Reaganism, we are in the middle of a shift of the public to the left. A defeat here has wider implications for the party.
There are really only two tools- the carrot or the stick. So far, President Obama's preferred approach to the exclusion of the other is the carrot.
But, this situation requires fear. The Blue Dogs do not fear President Obama. If President Obama wants to govern he needs to put some fear into them. Here's the reality: If President Obama is unable to pass this legislation given wide popular support, how will he pass any legislation that impacts the economic lives of Americans? The Blue Dogs are plainly going to always focus on corporate interests.
There are those who say President Obama is allowing this to happen because he agrees with the Blue Dogs. I honestly don't think that is the case. I think he has a fatal flaw for compromise that is getting in the way of addressing reality. That reality is that the Blue Dogs do not fear him. They are playing hardball politics: what they don't fear- they are going to run over.
How can he put the fear of God into them? Threaten to support a primary candidate against a few of them. Threaten to cut off some needed legislation for their districts. Directly go into their districts to discuss the issue with district voters. Make them sweat. Take Rahm Emanuel off this issue, and place someone in charge who sends the signal directly to them that things are going to change.
The story on 1993 is that it was the conservative Dems who played President Clinton like a violin. That's why Clinton loss that battle. People keep saying President Obama is this brilliant politician. He is no more brilliant that President Clinton. Brilliance alone is not enough. It also requires the willingness to think about how to twist arms like LBJ did to pass his Great Society.
So, I will once again say- President Obama needs to make an example of the Blue Dogs. Until he does, he will face this problem without relent, and will end up without much to run on in 2012. I simply don't think Kabuki legislation will be enough.