Amidst all the recent talk about Iran's nuclear program and Israel's intentions towards Iran something potentially far more important has been developing between two worlds, the Arab and the Persian, with a history of long-standing enmity and distrust - a proxy war in the small, poor Arab state of Yemen involving Shiite forces backed by Iran and a Sunni-dominated government backed and armed by Saudi Arabia.
On August 24th the LA Times reported:
Fighting in the mountains of northwestern Yemen intensified Sunday as the government announced that it had killed more than 100 Shiite Muslim rebels, and humanitarian organizations voiced alarm over an estimated 100,000 people who have fled their homes since the conflict flared nearly two weeks ago.
The Shiite revolt in the northwest is unfolding amid Yemen's tricky mix of tribes and clans, and larger regional animosities between Iran's Shiite-led government and its Sunni Arab neighbors. Yemen has intimated that Iran is funneling weapons and money to the rebels. Iran's news media have alleged that Saudi forces have joined Yemeni troops in putting down the rebellion. The Saudis, who worry the unrest may seep across their border, have only publicly acknowledged that the kingdom is consulting with Yemen about the violence.
Couple this with the recent announcement that Morocco was breaking diplomatic ties with Iran:
The Moroccan Foreign Ministry has announced it is severing its diplomatic relations with Iran. Sunni-dominated Morocco has expressed concern for what it sees as Iran’s efforts to convert Sunni Muslims to Shi’ism.
These two seemingly disparate events actually share quite a bit in common. Morocco is far enough away from Iran and has relatively little economic interests in Iran or vice-versa that it could afford to act as the tip of the spear of Arab resentment at Iran's growing influence in the Arab world - a matter which has been of some concern to many Arab states and which seems to have reached a breaking point due to Iran's backing of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
As Foreign Policy said:
Even if the actual foreign material support in Yemen's civil strife is minimal, the conflict is probably the newest front in a broadening proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Lebanon is one front. Iranian attempts to gain influence over Shiite populations in eastern Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf is another. Some factions in Iran may feel obligated to support what they believe are oppressed Shiite minorities around the mostly Sunni Middle East. In the case of the rebellion in Yemen, some nervous officials in Riyadh may see an Iranian plan to achieve control over the Red Sea shipping lane.
Strangely though, the chaos in Yemen is benefiting an organization which has no love for either Iran, which it views as an infidel state or Saudi Arabia - which is viewed much the same. That organization is Al Qaeda.
CS Monitor:
Al Qaeda is benefiting from the chaos, observers say. A new report on Al Qaeda in Yemen from the Middle East Institute in Moscow warns that Yemen has become a strategic hub for Al Qaeda, reports the Yemen Post. The terrorist organization has strengthened its position in Yemen, the report says, and has turned the ungoverned spaces of the country into a transport hub for fighters going to conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and East Africa.
Add in the fact that some believe there is a messianic, religious context to Iranian support for the Shiite rebels in Yemen and one has all the conditions necessary for a perfect proxy war between two states with long-standing distrust and which both see themselves as the true leaders in the region:
"Iran has strategic goals in this regard, and the Iranians believe an army will come from Yemen to support the long-awaited 12th imam, the Mahdi," he said. "Any threat to the Yemeni state will also threaten Saudi Arabia, the only force that can confront Iran. Iran therefore has an interest in promoting threats to Yemen."
Keep an eye out on this conflict in the weeks and months ahead and in particular look out for any statements from the Iranian government expressing "concern" for its Shiite brethren in Yemen. While Iran has said a "political solution" is the only one which solve the problem in Yemen it appears there is more Iranian involvement than just the "political."