I still think Clark started too late. And nowhere has that been more evident than by his withdrawl from Iowa.
Yes, Lieberman withdrew. But Joe was in real danger of placing in the gutter with Kucinich, Braun and Sharpton. His retreat was necessary, it futile. He'll face the same situation in every state in which he attempts to compete.
But Clark is different. He can compete in every state. He has the star power to command media attention, even as others like Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards struggle to attract the TV cameras. He has the netroots organization to organize independently from the campaign in many more states than the traditional candidates (though I still maintain they are being misused and underutilized). He has the instant credibility that only being a wartime general can command.
Yet despite polling in double digits in Iowa, he is withdrawing. Why? A third place finish in Iowa, exceeding all expectations, would set him up nicely for a third or even second place finish in New Hampshire. Rather than have the news cycle dominated by the winners between January 17 and February 3, Clark would get enough attention to provide that all-important momentum in the compacted primary schedule.
If Clark beat out Edwards in both Iowa and NH, who wouldn't give him the edge in South Carolina? Oklahoma? North Dakota? Instead, Clark is abandoning that potential media bonanza and is rolling the dice on Feb. 3. Again, why?
In short, time and money. Clark may be able to raise a great deal of money compared to everyone not named Dean, but he only has 4-5 months to raise it. While the other canndidates have already spent tens of millions building ground organization in the early primary states, Clark has to start from zero and build from scratch.
Remember, the other candidates have spent over a year now working on their ground game. These things don't sprout up out of nowhere. It takes real effort, a lot of hard work. And experienced staff, most of which have already committed to other candidates.
Clark has ridden his media splash to good national poll numbers, but he doesn't have the ground operation to support it. Not yet. And the campaign knows it.
Had they announced earlier in the year, they would have had the time to build ground organization and raise the money to fund it. By starting so late, the Clark campaign has to prioritize its targets, focus its energies on a handful of states. It has lost the ability to run the type of national campaign that Dean is running. It lacks operational flexibility (which must grate on the general).
They can still pull it off, of course, but their job is a lot more difficult. I think people misunderestimate the amount of work and expense involved in building state campaign organizations. The late entry matters. Whether it's crippling remains to be seen.