Well, we finally have the PPP results that we've been looking forward to for the last few days (after the SUSA poll showed an aberrant result). After the oddities of the last SUSA poll, it is good to have a second data point. Unfortunately, PPP seems to have the same ideas on weighting that SUSA does (which is to say, they don't bother), and the result is a similar result in their poll.
The SUSA poll skewed 52-43 McCain-Obama. As we all know, that wasn't even close to the result of 53-46. This poll skews out 52-41...basically the same result with a few more people pleading bad memory or not wanting to disclose. SUSA gave a 55-40 lead to McDonnell, while this one gives a 51-37 lead to McDonnell...15 points for SUSA vs. 14 points for PPP. Also similar to SUSA, the results were highly similar down the ballot (in the case of PPP, you got 14-point leads across the board;
Plugging the two options I used last time (that is, weighting first for an even split at 49-49 between McCain and Obama and then weighting for the actual results from 2008 of 53-46 Obama-McCain), we get the following results:
Unweighted:
Deeds 37, McDonnell 51, Undecided 12
Wagner 34, Bolling 48, Undecided 18
Shannon 32, Cuccinelli 46, Undecided 22
Even Split:
Deeds 41.2, McDonnell 46.1, Undecided 10.8
Wagner 37.2, Bolling 44.1, Undecided 16.2
Shannon 36.3, Cuccinelli 40.7, Undecided 21.1
2008 Replicated:
Deeds 44.2, McDonnell 43.6, Undecided 11.2
Wagner 39.9, Bolling 42.0, Undecided 16.7
Shannon 38.8, Cuccinelli 38.5, Undecided 21.7
*I chose to include decimals this time because 2008 replicated results wouldn't have shown the slight-but-notable Dem leads in two races without them. Shannon and Deeds lead by less than 1% each.
The story is almost identical to the SUSA poll across the board: Unweighted responses yield a GOP blowout. Weighting to 2008 gives a dead heat across the board. Weighting to tied voter preference from '08 gives a modest GOP lead as we saw earlier in the season. Nothing seems to have really moved except who's getting sampled...and I am likely to agree with an earlier comment that this has to do with trouble polling young people (and other summer polling problems that often manifest themselves).
An interesting footnote is that the don't recall/other voters tended to back the Republicans (by 48-27 in the Gov's race and by 42-19 and 46-12 in Lt. Gov. and AG, respectively). My suspicion is that at least some of these are "shy Obama" voters (i.e. crossovers who don't want to admit that they did). Again, no way to tell for sure, but based on those roaring margins down the ballot they certainly feel like soft voters who have leaned Republican in recent years. The fact that Obama voters also register higher "undecided" ratings also points back to him winning independents...voters who came over for him and (presumably) Warner but who may wander back into the Republican fold as local issues trump national ones.
Nobody knows what's going to happen in November with all of the people Obama managed to register and turn out. They might all come out, they might stay at home...you never know. That said, inverting the voter splits like this is resulting in utter nonsense and the pollsters ought to know better.
So...two badly-weighted polls in a week from Virginia. Don't get too excited if McDonnell crashes back to a single-point lead once a well-weighted poll comes out, just as you shouldn't panic at the sight of these results. If the polls return to a narrow GOP lead, it's not a McDonnell meltdown or a Deeds surge, it's the pollsters bothering to weight/check their samples once again. McDonnell doesn't actually have a 14-point lead now; he can't lose it if he never had it.
P.S. Unfortunately, the rumored "birther" question didn't seem to appear. I'd been really looking forward to seeing that one, if just for entertainment value.
Update: Looks like I missed the Birther question. Mea culpa. I'll deal with that information in another diary, but the numbers ain't good for the Republicans. Less than a third of self-IDed conservatives are sure Obama was born in the US, and McCain voters aren't that much better off.