The Hill, after analyzing the tea leaves of the situation has come to the conclusion that Obama is laying the ground work for reconciliation which will come to pass in 10/15 if a bill has not passed the Senate.
Obama sets stage for using budget reconciliation
President Barack Obama this week has been laying the foundation for Senate Democrats to use a controversial budget maneuver to pass healthcare reform.
By offering Republicans olive branches during his address to Congress on Wednesday, Obama has set up a win-win situation. If GOP lawmakers embrace compromise, a healthcare bill would pass Congress easily. But the more likely scenario is that Republicans will continue to oppose Obama’s plan, and the president later this fall will be able to note he tried to strike a deal with the GOP but could not.
That will set up a Democratic argument that Senate leaders have been forced to use a partisan budget tool known as reconciliation to pass a health bill through the Senate by a simple majority, instead of 60 votes. Under the budget plan they passed earlier this year, Democrats could invoke the reconciliation process on Oct. 15.
I've given my thoughts on budget reconciliation. It is not the panacea that many claim it to be. Specifically: "Suppose we get Fifty Votes. (I don't even think we have that). We would need that Fifty vote group to stay strong through HUNDREDS of "calls to order".
Then, those things that the Parlimentarian finds that are not related to the budget (and we could expect a lot of those: Insurance reforms, exchanges, etc) will require sixty votes. By this point, Snowe would probably not want to join in with us, and if we have the conservadems saying no, well then we end up with 1/2 a healthcare or less.
Suppose the public plan makes it through that then, it's creation date would still be in 2013. It would expire in 2014. That leaves one year to develop one billion in SAVINGS, not just new revenue, otherwise, the public plan expires, due to the five year sunset, inserted by Kent Conrad.
This is all on top of whether we even WIN on the reconciliation measure for it. If we lose, say bye-bye Obama presidency."
I don't know what's going to happen if reconciliation comes to pass, but if it fails, things will not be good for anyone.