http://www.nytimes.com/...
No this isn't The Onion.
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Tuesday that it was "very likely" that the recession had ended although he cautioned that it would be many months before unemployment rates would drop significantly.
Apparently in Ben's World, unemployment and the recession (and therefore by implication the rest of the trade cycle), are mutually exclusive. So if unemployment was at 95% Ben would need to know how sales are going and what the money supply was like before he makes any comment on whether we might be in a recession. Never mind the people tenting on his grass, front porch and into the street due to unemployment.
"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point,"
Ben: Excuse me now, I have to christen a new ride in Ben's Fantasyland at Disneyland. I call it "The Recovery."
Mr. Bernanke said the consensus of forecasters was for moderate growth for the rest of this year and next,...
Ben likes a consensus! So if the consensus was made up of Larry, Moe, Curly and the Keystone Kops that would be just peachy in Ben's World. We just need Lots O' People!
And "economists" don't count. How many of these predicted the collapse in the first place? I didn't think so.
Business cycles are officially dated by a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee often spends many months sifting through economic trends before declaring the beginning and end dates of a recession.
I see. "Trends" trump reason, logic, human psychology, and government's unpredictable wackiness with its bailouts (that went to -- well, nobody seems to know), new regulations (new doesn't mean good) and new "oversight" -- Heh. See The SEC for a lesson in "oversight."
Ben, for the most part we won't leave our brains at your door on this, thank you very much.
But a penny for your thoughts.