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A late promotion from the diaries from my favorite High School prognosticator -- kos)
With the ruling overturning the GOP gerrymander in Colorado, Democrats can add two more seats to their lists of targets. And if, as we can now hope (with Colorado's ruling becoming a bedrock of the Democratic argument in Texas), the Texas Redistricting Massacre is overturned as well, then Democrats can plan how to narrow the GOP Majority in 2004. After careful review of 30 GOP-held House seats that could be vulnerable, I have narrowed that list down to the Top 10 Democratic takeovers in 2004. This is assuming we lose 1-3 seats in other races, such as Ken Lucas' open seat. This gives the Democrats 210-215 seats, leaving us within striking distance in 2006 for taking back the House. Without further ado, let's take a look at the Top 10:
- NE-2 (Lee Terry, incumbent): NEBRASKA?! Stephen, are you out of your mind?! No Democrat can win in Nebraska! Well, actually, that statement is false. Granted, the Democrats are currently out of power in Nebraska, but our recent Mayoral victories prove that we can win in even heavily Republican states. In this case, Republican Lee Terry is being targeted by the Nebrakska Democratic party, who have recruited a stellar Congressional candidate. Her name is Nancy Thompson, a State Senator from Pampillon, Nebraska. A former Sarpy County Commissioner, Thompson has raised over $60,000 so far, which is only a little behind Terry's fundraising. Terry won with 62% in 2002 against a weak candidate, and this district was represented by a Democrat (Peter Hoagland) until 1995, so Terry might be beaten. Most likely, Terry will win this seat, but an upset cannot be ruled out. Thompson is a tenacious campaigner and a strong fundraiser, and she might have what it takes to win.
- NJ-7 (Mike Ferguson): This is my home turf, and Mike Ferguson is my Congressman. This is unfortunate, as he is a pompous pain in the derriere who wouldn't even shake my hand at a debate I attended between him and Tim Carden in 2002. Ferguson won 58-41 in 2002, after outspending Tim 3:1. This district does lean Republican, with Bush having won it 49-47 over Gore in 2000, with 3% for Nader. However, Democrats have recruited a stellar challenger against Ferguson. His name is Stephen Brozak, a Lt. Colonel in the US Marines who has served in Kuwait and Iraq (as a military spokesman) and was stationed in Arlington. Mr. Brozak is also a securities broker at Westfield Bakernik Brozak, LLC. Mr. Brozak will be forming a committee in the next week.
Ferguson is vulnerable for two reasons: 1)He recently paid a $210,000 fine to the FEC for an illegal loan to his 2000 Congressional campaign from his parents, and 2)He was involved in a scuffle with a Georgetown college student at a bar in Washington. The student claims (this has not been proven) that Ferguson "behaved inappropriately" towards her, while Ferugson disputes the student's accusations. Democrats believe that Ferguson is vulnerable for those two reasons, and also for his lockstep support for President Bush. This race will be worth watching.
- NC-11 (Charles Taylor): Congressman Taylor is considered vulnerable by some because he fails to win by big margins in a strong GOP district. For example, he won with 55.4% in 2002 despite the fact that Elizabeth Dole swept the district. His likely Democratic opponent is Patsy Keever, a Buncombe County Commissioner and a talented candidate. Keever will present a strong challenge to Taylor, and this seat will be worth watching. Taylor may also have a primary challenge from John Armor, a community activist and attorney. North Carolina has been hard hit by manufacturing losses, and with Republican infighting in North Carolina adding to their problems, Keever may have a shot at an upset. This is my pick for the upset of the year.
- GA 11 (Phil Gingrey): Congressman Gingrey won with 52% in 2002 in a strong GOP tide in Georiga, so don't be suprised if Democrats target him in 2004. With Gingrey's fundraising advantage, Democrats need a strong candidate to beat him. That candidate could be Cathy Henson, an ex-State Board of Education Member and attorney, but she has not said whether she'll run. For now, Democrats have a strong candidate in Rick Crawford, the Polk County Chief Magistrate (Judge). Crawford would make this competitive, while Henson, a very strong candidate, could probably win the seat for the Democrats. If Democrats are competitive in Georgia in 2004, then they have a shot at beating Gingrey.
- IA-4: Congressman Tom Latham won in 2002 with 54% against John Norris, an accomplished young Democrat. In 2004, Democrats have two potential candidates: Norris and State Senator Amanda Ragan. Ragan would be the stronger candidate in my opinion, and so here's hoping she runs. If Norris runs, it will still be competitive, but I think Latham wins. If Ragan runs, I think the Democrats can win this seat.
- IA-2: (Jim Leach)-The day Jim Leach ends his 27-year Congressional career, Democrats will almost certainly win this seat. For now, Democrats are targeting Leach again in 2004, based on the district's Democratic lean. Dave Franker, an Iowa City School Board member, is running, and ex-State Senator Art Small may also run. Democrats need to win this seat sometime in the future in order to take back the House. Franker, a good, decent candidate, may be the right man.
- PA-15 (Open seat): With Congressman Pat Toomey running against Senator Arlen Specter in the GOP primary, the Democrats have a good shot at winning the seat. This seat went for Al Gore in the 2000 election, and Toomey won a rematch against a weak opponent with 57% in 2002. In 2004, the Republicans have a bitter 3-way primary between State Senator Charlie Dent (a moderate), Joe Pascuzzo (a conservative) and Brian O'Neill (who has been endorsed by Gary Bauer-take that for what it's worth), an attorney. This allows the Democrats a shot at winning this seat, but we need a strong candidate first. Dave Wallisch, a county judge, is considering a bid, and he's the best Democrat to win the seat. If Wallisch runs, the Democrats have a good chance of winning this seat. If not, we'll likely go with Jim Maza, a former County Commissioner and a township supervisor, who would probably fall short of victory.
- CO-3 (Open seat): With Scott McInnis leaving the House to run for Governor in 2006, Democrats have an excellent shot at winning this seat. There are just 5,000 more Republicans than Democrats in this district, making it a swing district. Democrats have cleared the field for State Rep John Salazar, brother of AG Ken Salazar (the frontrunner for Governor in 2006). Salazar is a good fit for this moderate, pro-gun, pro-choice district, where Republicans have been unable to unify behind a single candidate. So far, six Republicans are running, with more possibly joining the fray. If Salazar can run a good campaign, he will win.
- CO-7 (Beauprez): This district was the closest in the nation in 2002, and Democrats will target it in 2004. Al Gore won CO-7 in 2000, and Bob Beauprez, the Republican incumbent, won with 47% and 122 votes in 2002. John Works, a wealthy banker, is likely to be the Democratic nominee, and he can self-fund to the hilt. This race could very well go Democratic, and it will be one of our top targets in 2004.
- GA-12 (Burns): This seat is the most Democratic in the nation held by a GOP Congressman, and the Democrats will be gunning for Congressman Max Burns. Burns is not doing a good job fundraising, and appears to be attatched to the NRCC for funds. Democrats have a crowded field, but the frontrunner is John Barrow, an Athens-Clarke County Commissioner and an agressive fundraiser. Barrow has raised over $350,000 so far, almost matching Burns. This race leans to the Democrats, so long as they don't embroil themselves in a bloody primary.
Well, there you have it. If Texas is kept the way it is, a strong showing in these competitive races may give us a close minority in 2004. If I've left off any race you think is worth mentioning, please post about it. Thanks!