Following up on yesterday, there have been some new developments with the situation along the eastern-Afghanistan/FATA-Pakistan borer. It is becoming very clear that the suicide-bombing of a CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, was a success for the Haqqani-faction of the Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban. This was revenge for Baitullah Mehsud and a response for the drone strikes.
However, it now seems Pakistan may be more willing to allow for operations in North Waziristan to expand beyond the use CIA drones. If so, this would confirm my thoughts from yesterday; the fight in this region is really going to heat up.
A suicide bombing rocked the province of Lakki Marwat in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, striking at a sporting event that left as many as 88 dead. The strike was credited to Pakistani Taliban that are currently being sheltered in nearby North Waziristan. The militants were angered by locals forming "peace committes"/lashkars/militias to keep the Taliban out.(New York Times)
Here's something that stood out for me from the New York Times article, with an added emphasis;
The Pakistani military says it has its hands full already with its operation in South Waziristan. But many of the militants it was fighting there have simply moved and are now being sheltered by groups in North Waziristan.
Mr. Hussain, the provincial information minister, suggested that they, too, should now be targets. He called for limited operations to flush out militants from their remaining strongholds in the tribal areas.
"The military has done well in South Waziristan," he said, "but it’s time to go after the militants who have taken shelter in other places."
Then I came across another report, this one from CBS News;(emphasis added)
U.S. commanders say they've been stepping up attacks against the Haqqanis, sending an extra 1,000 special ops forces across Afghanistan over the past year. Another 500 are due this spring. A senior U.S. official says the Paksitani government has also agreed to allow small numbers of U.S. special ops forces to operate on the ground in the Haqqani's Pakistan stronghold.
This would be a major reversal from their previous stand and a further-indication that Pakistan is not seeing "good Taliban"/Afghan-Taliban like they used to; as ugly folks that are occasionally useful. This does not necessarily translate into any change between Pakistan and Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura in Baluchistan province- however, as it pertains to rooting out "Al Qaeda Central"'s safe havens, this is enormously significant.
There was also something else recently which caught my eye that was widely reported. A recent raid by Pakistani security forces nabbed militants from a hospital in Wana, South Waziristan(Dawn). Wana is under the sway of Mullah Nazir who, like Haqqani/Bahadur, was amongst those considered to be "good Taliban"/Afghan-Taliban by the Pakistanis. This follows an incident from early December in which militants in the region attacked a Pakistani army check-point, violating a peace agreement the Pakistanis had with Mullah Nazir.(Reuters)
It really remains to be seen what the Pakistani military is going to do.
Will they solidify government-control of the areas they've seized in FATA?
Will they continue their incremental-doctrine against the Pakistani Taliban by focusing on the tribal agencies north of North Waziristan?
I think the answer to both of these questions are likely ayes. The Pakistanis are fully aware that they'll have to live with the residents of these areas for decades if not centuries- therefore, they have every reason to want to develop areas like the Mehsud-regions of South Waziristan.(which we're giving $55 million for) As for expanding their military operations in Orakzai/Kurram/Khyber tribal agencies, which are located north of North Waziristan, that seems likely. There has been talk of this for awhile, especially as it pertains to Orakzai agency. Currently the Pakistani security forces in that region are mainly relying on the paramilitary Frontier Corps backed up by air and artillery power.
The bigger question, of course, is whether or not the Pakistanis will expand beyond those Taliban that have declared war on the Pakistani state. While it seems clear that the Pakistanis are beginning to allow the U.S. more leeway in combating militants in North Waziristan, it truly remains to be seen if the Pakistanis themselves would actually go into the heart of Haqqani country. If they want to find Hakimullah Mehsud and his lieutenants before the Predator and Reaper drones give him a one-way ticket to meet his predecessor, the Pakistanis would have to go in.
Side-Note:
In yesterday's diary I noted the two drone strikes into North Waziristan that followed the suicide-bombing of the CIA base in Khost. According to CBS News, a Taliban commander has said that another top commander in the Haqqani network was taken out in one of those attacks.