The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.
Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans. The only seat that might be in danger is Markey's in CO-04 and Perlmutter's CO-07 (both are D)
Filing deadline May 27
Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats
Filing deadline May 25
Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.
Filing deadline July 30
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
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District: CO-01
Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map
Cook PVI D+21
Representative Diana DeGette (D)
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly
2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Current opponents Michael Deming
Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)
Assessment Safe. Degette has raised $213K and spent $230K, no info on Deming
District: CO-02
Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies. Also the exurbs of Denver map
Cook PVI D +11
Representative Jared Polis (D)
VoteView rank 187.5/447
First elected 2008
2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin NA
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Stephen Bailey (R) and an independent
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe. Polis has raised $169K and spent $116K. No info on the others
District: CO-03
Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative John Salazar (D)
VoteView rank 207/447
First elected 2004
2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Martin Beeson, Bob McConnell, Ray Scott, Scott Tipton, Doug Thompson
Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe. It'd be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub. Salazar has raised nearly half a million, and spent $233K. Beeson and McConnell have each raised less than $10K
District: CO-04
Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Betsey Markey (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Tom Lucero, Cory Gardner, Diggs Brown, Dean Madere are all confirmed, and others may run, too.
Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; this could be hard fought. Markey, though, has raised almost a million, and spent $220K, giving her a lot of cash on hand. Gardner has raised $395K (fairly impressive for a challenger) and spent $121K. Lucero has raised less, no info on the others.
District: CO-05
Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Doug Lamborn (R)
VoteView rank 439.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents None declared. Possible primary challenge
Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.
Assessment A long shot; Lamborn has raised $100K and spent about half that.
District: CO-06
Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents
John Flerlage (nothing at this site)
Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it's a longshot. Coffman has raised $300K and spent $125K. Flerlage has raise $35K and spent $18K.
District: CO-07
Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)
VoteView rank 203.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew
2006 margin 55-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Brian Campbell, Ryan Frazier, Michale Deming, Mike Sheely and Lang Sias
Demographics Not unusual in what I track
Assessment This could be competitive - there's a reason all those Republicans are running in the primary. Still, Obama won easily, and Perlmutter has raised $666K and spent $300K; the only Repub. who has raised much is Frazier, who has raised $213K and spent $94
District: CT-01
Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 119.5/447
First elected 1998
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 73-27
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on things I track
Assessment Safe. Larson has raised nearly a million, and spent $800K
District: CT-02
Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Joe Courtney (D)
VoteView rank 137/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan
2006 margin 83 votes
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 44-54
Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak
Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)
Assessment One close race, one easy victory. I won't say absolutely "safe" but it looks good. Novak's website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he's a wingnut, not suited to the district. Courtney has raised $600K and sent $219. Daly has raised about $50K, Novak has raised less than $10K.
District:CT-03
Location New Haven and areas around it map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Rosa DeLauro
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected 1990
2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky
2006 margin 76-22
2004 margin 72-25
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Current opponents Itshaky is running again, as are Jerry Labriola and Peggy Rogers.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. DeLauro has raised $419K and spent slightly more; no info on opponents.
District: CT-04
Location NYC suburbs - Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Jim Himes (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Rob Kane, Will Gregory, Dan Debicella, Rob Russo, Rob Merkle and Enrique Torres.
Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)
Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent; the Republicans first choice was John McKinney, but he is not running. Himes has raised $1.4 million, and spent $301K. Debicella has raised $100K and spent little; the other Republicans have raised little.
District: CT-05
Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Chris Murphy (D)
VoteView rank 142/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello
2006 margin 54-44
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Justin Bernier, Daniel Carter, Kie Westby, Bill Evans, Mark Greenberg, Sam Caliguri
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably safe. Murphy has raised almost $1 million and spent $330K; Caliguri has raised $300K and spent $200; Bernier has raised $190K and spent $50K. The others have raised little.
District: DE-AL
Location Delaware.
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Mike Castle (R) Retiring to run for senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment With Castle out, this is a prime pickup opportunity In fact, Crisitunity at SSP ranks it the most vulnerable seat held by the Repubs. No fund raising info, for some reason.