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Today is the last contest where we will have F Sue Del Papa, former Secretary of State and Nevada Attorney General. In republican side, here is B Krolicki Lieutenant Governor and former State Treasurer, recently free of his indictment.

With B Sandoval running for Governor, this hypothetical contest would become real more easily for a senate race, if J Ensign retires or if H Reid retires.

I think the second democrat from Nevada should think in the senate, and especially in the seat of J Ensign. I think we can not lose the republican senator of our mind. He must be a political target. He is damaged and is not necessary hard political fire against J Ensign because would be better he try to continue, leaving out the race other republicans like D Heller or B Krolicki. We can see that in this series results.

When we think about Nevada we can not think only in 2010 elections, we must look too to the 2012 elections. That mean Democratic Party needs two strong candidates for the senate, and a strong candidate for governor. This series tell F Del Papa can be a good candidate for one of the two senate seats from Nevada.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this serie.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Jersey: Governor (*). 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor (*).
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Massachusetts: No-one.

(*): Without take office still.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about gerrymander redistricting (allways finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS IN THE CABINET OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Still no-one.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 02.879 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 17 votes = 06.373 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 16 votes = 07.188 => Likely Democratic
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R)
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. C Grassley
  1. O Snowe
  1. S Collins

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 13 votes = 03.205 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 05 votes = 04.000 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 20 votes = 04.083 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 19 votes = 04.386 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 15 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) (updating by new votes)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. B Krolicki
  1. P Mills
  1. T Branstad

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
IA3: David Loebsack: IA 1952 USHRep 07- .
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: D Loebsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 02.500 => Likely Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 02.708 => Likely Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
IA: D Loebsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 15 votes = 04.333 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 04 votes = 04.583 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 06 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 13 votes = 07.308 => Likely Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. D Heller
  1. J Gregg
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)

All they first level politic targets for democrats

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 08:04 AM PST.

Poll

NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R)

28%2 votes
14%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
14%1 votes
42%3 votes

| 7 votes | Vote | Results

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