Can we win Mass Senate election? a simple analysis...
Special elections have low turnout, Known data about 33.4% of Obama voters(Assumption, thanks for cph to point out) did vote in primary (668k in total), assuming 95% of primary voters will huddle around Martha Coakly. I think most reasonable turnout will be in low 60's given the special significance.
2008 Pres Elections total votes: 3Mil, Obama won 62% votes
Assumption based on 2008 election 75% voting: 750k of McCain votes from no repubs
2008 election Total Indies 1.6Mil = 53/47 for Obama
I would say here there will be tilt, lets take worse scenario 70/30 for Brown. ( but I doubt of this switch, that is 50% disapproval in indies, especially MASS that is progressive state)
Max Indies that can vote for Brown: 1.12Mil
Total Repubs: 330k
Model 1 Max Brown votes: 1.45Mil x (75% of will vote as repubs fired up) = 1.087Mil
Coakley's bank of votes from primary voters= 615k
Model 1 Additional votes = 460k
Max Indies voting Dem = 540k
Total pending registered Dem votes: 525k
Total Dem votes: 63%
Coakley needs 44% of additional votes from the pending bank of supported.
Total voter turnout: 1.087+.625+.45 = 2.1 (71%)
Model 2 Max Brown votes: 1.45Mil x (66% of will vote as repubs fired up) = .924Mil ( Most plausible )
Coakley's bank of votes from primary voters= 615k
Model 2 Additional votes = 309k
Max Indies voting Dem = 540k
Total pending registered Dem votes: 525k
Coakley needs 29% of additional votes from the pending bank of supported.
Total Dem votes: 55%
Total voter turnout: 0.924+.615+.309 = 1.84 (62%)
Model 3 Max Brown votes: 1.45Mil x (60% of will vote as repubs fired up) = 840k
Coakley's bank of votes from primary voters= 615k
Model 3 Addtional votes = 225k
Max Indies voting Dem = 540k
Total pending registered Dem votes: 525k
Total Dem votes: 50%
Coakley needs 22% of additional votes from the pending bank of supported.
Total voter turnout: .84+.615+.225 = 1.58 (57%)