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I'm going to lay out a bold prediction: by hook and by crook, there will be a health care reform bill. There is no serious chance that a bill will not pass, not even if Scott Brown wins.

There are several ways this could occur: budget reconciliation, delaying Scott Brown's seating, and forcing the House to pass the Senate bill.

The method in this case, assuming Brown wins, will be the third one: force the House to pass the Senate bill.

I think this for a few key reasons.

  1. The whole of the President's political fortunes rest on passing this bill. They have spent 7 months on it, and the President's team are not going to let it die. Presidents, more than Congress, see their work in a historical context and in terms of what defines them and their term in office. Barack Obama's will be, for better or for worse, be animated by his passage of health care or will simply be Clinton part II: a lot of potential but very little results.

  1. The Democratic Party will not be electorally effective if a bill doesn't pass. A lot of you guys talk about how passing a bad bill would be for the base. Well imagine how it would look to the base, plus independents and moderates to see that we failed at our major, signature issue AGAIN. Horrible. Not even our most conservative members would disagree with that, I think. Either that or they'll switch parties.
  1. Rahm Emanuel was there to see the first failure of reform first hand. I strongly doubt that he will do anything less than everything he can, legal or not, to pass this bill. Like him or not, he has done a million favors for about 25%-30% of the Democratic caucus and has lots of chits to cash in. Most people who love their lives do not want to be on the wrong side of Rahm Emanuel.
  1. House Progressives will cave. The simple fact is they want a bill worse than anyone in the caucus. They want to improve the bill and make it better, but I think it's highly likely that, when literally faced with the choice of passing the Senate bill or getting nothing, they will pass the Senate bill. I think this because their goal, unlike many moderates, is to do the most good for the most people in the situation. Given that stark, binary choice of passage or failure, they will vote for passage.
  1. Moderates/conservatives will cave too. What I don't think a lot of people in the media understand is that many folks in the Dem caucus didn't vote for big bills because they didn't have to. They have 250 odd members and can afford to drop 40 and still pass big legislation. The leadership has been cutting them a break all this time, and don't think that they don't know that. As such we haven't even begun to see the array of inducements and threats that could be on the table if the stakes were high. My guess is that there is a list of members Pelosi has kept an eye on that have at some point promised to come through for her in exchange for not voting for something else.

This is not to say it won't be nerve-wracking if Scott Brown somehow manages to win, which I still think is less likely to happen than not. But they will pass this bill. The fortunes of the party and the President depend on it.

Come Tuesday, we might live in a post-MA Sen world, and that could realign incentives dramatically.

Originally posted to I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:13 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

    •  My thoughts exactly. (5+ / 0-)

      Progressive block threats have actually gone a long way towards improving the legislation, but they won't kill it. Because they actually want Health Care Reform. Unlike all the disingenuous Republicans running around saying "I want Health Care Reform too. Just not this evil Commie Single Payer plan the Dems want".

      "See? I'm not a racist! I have a black friend!"

      by TheHalfrican on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:49:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  2 out of 3 want Medicare for all (0+ / 0-)

        Seriously.. 2 out of 3, from both parties.

        If they did that, they would be heroes. The bill as it exists now is really NOT the improvement that many people claim it it. For example, it does not end job lock or price hikes for employers when people use their health insurance. It does not do anything for cost control and it still leaves most of us potentially exposed to unlimited costs. The delay till 2014 means it will probably be repealed and never implemented. Thats is a serious problem. OTOH Medicare for all is a guaranteed winner. Not Medicare buy-in, medicare for all, paid for by taxes, with all the Federal health systems merged into one. They already pay 60% of all bills, This would save a huge amount of money currently spent on billing. In many cases half of doctors and hospitals expenses are related to fighting the insurers for payment.

        80% won't be protected from discrimination in group plans. They also can and do get $ for terrible insurance and then intimidate sick into not using it

        by Andiamo on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 04:44:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  HCR is killing us (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      importer, manwithnoname

      The latest WaPo poll has the following numbers on health care:

      1/15/10    
      Strongly Approve:  24        
      Somewhat Approve:  21  
      Somewhat Disapprove:   9        
      Strongly Disapprove:  43        
      No Opinion:  4

      Say what you want about Hamsher (and, no, I don't like some of her tactics), at least she made a huge effort to ensure the public option remained in the bill.

      When the public option was removed, support went south.  Add the excise tax and mandate with no PO, and the Democratic party sinks nationwide if they enact this bill as is.  Make no mistake, it's having a huge impact on this race.

      Also, interestingly enough the insurance companies/Pharma are strongly backing Coakley:  the voters don't like this either, relative to the HCR debate.

      BTW I really want Coakley to win, but I fear this is a sign of things to come for the Dems if the health-care bill is not improved dramatically.

      Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr.

      by nandssmith on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:26:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Its not anything in the bill that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, ETF, Onomastic

        made those poll numbers.  It's the sneaky Republican party.

        I visited my elderly Mom in Florida over the holidays. She was an ardent Obama supporter for the presidential election.

        She pulled me aside and said she didn't think Obama has been good for the country. I asked he why and she quoted some of the most distorted Right wing propoganda I have ever heard.

        I looked around her house, and there was newsletter after newsletter from several organizations with neutral sounding names such as "citizens for progress".  They all had push poll articles, such as:

        If you knew that the health care bill would reduce your medicare benefits, would you want your congressman to approve it?

        •  I disagree (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, snowshoeblue, Onomastic

          The public option was popular nationwide, as was Medicare buy-in at 55 - even after months of crazy town halls and the Republicans consistently trying to shout down HCR.

          When those things were removed, popularity tanked across the board.

          Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr.

          by nandssmith on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 02:58:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You assume the average (5+ / 0-)

            citizen was watching the developments on the bill blow by blow and not the one or two page propoganda newsletters in their mailboxes.

            Just try and stop the next person you see in the line of the supermarket and ask them what is the public option.

            You are most likely to get a response including "government want's to get rid of medicarecare".

            Remember, most people are not on DKOS.

            •  I am assuming nothing, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              snowshoeblue

              and I realize most people are not on DKos.  

              The average citizen wants a public insurance choice separate from the "big, bad" insurance companies.  They trust government-run health care far more than insurance-run HC.  

              That's why even the tea-baggers won't give up their Medicare, and why the Republicans jumped on the meme that the Dems would cut Medicare - because they know government plans are popular, even as they tout the "less government" theme.

              Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr.

              by nandssmith on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:54:16 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, people are becoming more savey, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        snowshoeblue, nandssmith

        they see what's going on and they see that this HCR is not reform but another huge giveaway to the insurance cartel.

        The Democrats, rather the DLC Democrats, are trying to run the Clinton game plan again and this time it won't work.  People have far more access to information, they are not relying on the local news show and they don't like what they see.

        I am a dyed-in-the-wool progressive.  I worked for and voted for Obama hoping for a miniscule move toward the left.  Instead we got Bush III.  For all the talk, Obama has kept in place much of Bush II's agenda, just as Clinton continued the agenda set by Bush I.

        If Coakley loses, it is a referendum on the administrations lack of movement to the left.  As long as they continue to look like the Bush administration, their numbers will continue to drop.    

  •  If HCR fails.. (5+ / 0-)

    .. then it won't be Clinton 2. Clinton never got a FIFTH as far as Obama has with a health care bill. Remember, Clinton's bill never even got out of committee. This will be a much much more crushing defeat.

    The only hope is for the House to fold and vote for the Senate bill, on the pretense that improvements will be made down the road. With the egos we have in the House that is the looooooongest of long shots. :-(

    Joe Wilson is a racist. Censure his ass.

    by OReillysNightmare on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:16:46 PM PST

    •  It's going to happen. (11+ / 0-)

      This isn't just faith. It's political logic.

      The leadership has never badly needed votes. They have always been able to get what they want. They haven't even had to really work hard.

      See the work of one Thomas DeLay to see what I'm talking about. He actually got one Rep to sign on by promising to give campaign money for his son to run for mayor or something along those lines.

      People have lots of levers and weak spots, esp. congressmen. They will find them and use them, I guarantee it.

      Educate yourself about budget reconciliation here

      by I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:19:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I pray you're right. God, most of us here do. (5+ / 0-)

        Things are bleak in MA. Unlike yourself, I think Brown will win. If things pan out that way, then our only hope is you're right in your assumption that the House will vote the Senate bill in. I'm worried about what Barney Frank said about HCR being dead if Brown wins.

        Joe Wilson is a racist. Censure his ass.

        by OReillysNightmare on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:24:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Absolutely right. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sebastianguy99, ETF

        Also, those Dems in red districts had damned well better make sure this bill passes. If their Dem base deserts them, who are they going to turn to for votes? Republicans? Lots of good things in this bill take effect immediately, and can only help politically.

        I might add that although it hasn't been reported except by Rachel, the Congressional Quarterly recently proclaimed that Obama has had the most successful legislative year of any president since CQ started keeping the stats 56 years ago.

        He beat Eisenhower and Reagan.

        He beat LBJ.

        LBJ's best year was 1965, with a 93% success rate.

        Obama hit 96.7% last year. That's not just the best first year, it's the best year.

        Clearly, he knows how to get stuff through Congress. As does Rahm, and I'm damned glad Obama picked him.

        It's a BOY! See our new baby panda on the PANDA CAM! He's a toddler! Now on public view!

        by Fonsia on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 01:18:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Paul Krugman agrees with you in tomorrow's OpEd (7+ / 0-)

      http://www.nytimes.com/...

      And meanwhile, Democrats have to do whatever it takes to enact a health care bill. Passing such a bill won’t be their political salvation — but not passing a bill would surely be their political doom.

      Obama 7/09: "Don't bet against us" (unless the Dems screw it up).

      by Drdemocrat on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:38:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  opposite is true (10+ / 0-)

        It will be much easier to tout the bill once it's dead, and blame Scott Brown and the GOP for killing health care, than it will to pretend that this shit sandwich is good for America. If Krugman thinks that people won't be outraged to discover that they've been sold like economic indentured servants to WellPoint and Aetna, he's really not paying as much attention as I thought.

        If Brown wins, for God's sake take advantage of it and save the party in 2010--let the GOP kill the bill and take the rap. If it passes, the Dems will take the rap for net negative legislation.

        LoadedOrygun.net--Oregon's Progressive Community

        by torridjoe on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 11:15:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You are correct. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          irmaly, cybrestrike, FistJab

          If Coakley wins, AND if the informal conference procedure gets the national exchange in and a modification of the excise tax, the bill is somewhat defensible and we have something to build on with further legislation.

          If BROWN wins, passing the Senate bill as is will spell electoral mayhem for the Dems.  Far better to let Brown kill it, then go the reconciliation route or, better yet it in my view, nuke the filibuster and pass a REAL reform bill.

          Yes, I know President Palin would be a disaster, and I do understand the ponies are on back order. Now, what the fuck was your point again?

          by WisePiper on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 11:24:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  The GOP wont be blamed (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Fonsia, ETF, I said GOOD DAY sir

          Democrats have the majority and they are expected to deliver.  Republicans tried to blame Democrats in 2006 for killing Alaskan drilling and an making tax cuts permanent through filibusters and they were simply laughed at.  People dont understand filibusters.  

          •  Clinton blamed the GOP (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            FistJab

            for shutting down the government. It worked.

            People may not understand filibusters, but they understand if Brown wins, the GOP can kill the health care bill.

            I agree with the statement that they are expected to deliver--and delivering a bill that is worse than the status quo will kill them. Not delivering a bill they can sell as far better than it actually is, and demonizing the GOP--which we've already seen was their plan for 2010 anyway, according to aides--is the best they have.

            Health care isn't an accomplishment. As soon as the Democrats realize that, their choices get a lot easier.

            LoadedOrygun.net--Oregon's Progressive Community

            by torridjoe on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 11:41:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Besides, its the voters doing it, not Rs, media (0+ / 0-)

            will spin it thus.  After all, doncha know Brown's support is all about opposition to HRC?  and oh so conveniently, all the polls show Ds #s declining just as and since the HCR debate was really heating up?  Certainly couldn't have anything to do with the Honeymoon ending and 10% unemployment...

            Regardless of the reality, however, I am not convinced Ds have the cajones to not run for the hills if Brown wins.  The election is too close.  And politicians always think they can win if they control their own destiny (which they will think - wrong - means separating themselves from Obama, as if they could).

            And remember, the consultant crowd is even dumber than the pols.

          •  Don't feed the zombie. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RunawayRose

            This is UpstateDem, back again.

            Veni, vidi, farinuxi.

            by Ahianne on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 11:22:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  That is the only hope, really. (0+ / 0-)

          If Brown wins and votes against HCR the Democrats can pin the lose on the Republicans and retire the field.  This thing isn't worth passing anymore and they know it, but there hasn't been a way out.

          This would give them a way out, unless they want to go reconciliation and vote in just those parts that would HELP the public.  They could extend Medicare, there are a few other things that could be done under reconciliation that would be far more palatable than what we have now.

          If they really wanted to go after the insurance companies(which they don't) they could legislate reform without handling them tons of money and new customers.

  •  I hope you are right... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, mama jo

    I'm going to be praying the rosary tomorrow fir the first time in decades, hoping that Teddy is listening.... we need a miracle.

    If we end up winning this election, I will submit that to the Vatican for evidence of sainthood, 'cos that's what it's going to take at the moment... a miracle...

    DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
    LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

    by LordMike on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:17:55 PM PST

  •  Not unless Democrats rewrite bill. (6+ / 0-)

    Current health care bill is not health care reform in any way which is why Coakley is losing in Massachusetts.

    Democrats need to kill the filibuster and the write a much better bill based on 50 votes in the Senate.

    •  But if they do nothing, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kat68, ETF, durrati

      they will be in serious trouble. That's why I think they will pass the bill. No Democrat has a real incentive not to.

      Think about your average blue dog in trouble. Sure, voting for the bill hurts them politically. But could you imagine what would happen if 30-40 percent of your base support disappeared? They would be royally fucked.

      So I think they know that to even have a fighting chance, they have to stand with the base even sometimes. Also, a lot of them voted for a more liberal bill than this. How could they explain voting for the liberal bill and not for the more conservative bill? They can't.

      Educate yourself about budget reconciliation here

      by I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:23:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reconciliation is not happening. Move on. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, ETF, TomK1960, The Navigator, durrati

      Joe Wilson is a racist. Censure his ass.

      by OReillysNightmare on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:24:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It might, actually. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Fonsia, kat68, ETF

        I think they will use it to pass the things the House progressives or moderates want. I think it's actually quite likely if they try and ping pong the Senate bill.

        Educate yourself about budget reconciliation here

        by I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:27:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It will happen as an add on... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ETF

          The can modulate the excise tax and other stuff with it...  And Nelson can't moan, 'cos his Nebraska thing (which he wants out 'cos of bad PR) could be eliminated this way, too... we could get some other goodies in there as well... medicaid expansion, maybe... but, I bet Conrad won't be pushed that far...

          DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
          LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

          by LordMike on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:32:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  No, they need to pass this now and move on to (5+ / 0-)

      something righteously popular ASAP...like a massive jobs bill and cracking heads on Wall Street.

      •  Two points: (5+ / 0-)

        Passing the Senate bill as is will be an electoral gold mine for Republicans in November.  You need look no farther than the news that 20% of MA Obama voters look to be going for Brown as a reaction to their perception of what this HCR bill does.

        Secondly, if Brown wins you can forget about passing "something righteously popular."  NOTHING that addresses any of our current challenges in any substantive way is going to pass the Senate for the remainder of Obama's term.  NOTHING.  The Republicans smell blood, and they're going to block every fucking piece of legislation from here on out.

        Yes, I know President Palin would be a disaster, and I do understand the ponies are on back order. Now, what the fuck was your point again?

        by WisePiper on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 11:35:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Without the filibuster (0+ / 0-)

      The bill would have been far worse, and it would have passed with no discussion or effective opposition.

      If wanting the country to succeed is wrong, I don't want to be right.

      by Angela Quattrano on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 11:29:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  You are right, Good Day (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, kat68, TomK1960

    it's a done deal no matter what happens on Tuesday.

    If indeed the "progressives" manage to pee in the punch bowl to the extent Coakley loses, which seems to be their most fevered wet dream, though I doubt they will be successful, the House will quickly pass the Senate bill.

    The house will not kill HCR for 10% of the party that needs a dittie change...

    "Fascism is attracting the dregs of humanity- people with a slovenly biography - sadists, mental freaks, traitors." - ILYA EHRENBURG

    by durrati on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:30:43 PM PST

  •  Clinton was re-elected in 1996.... (7+ / 0-)

    and the party survived.

    This is an ineffective and corrupt bill. Polls show that even people with no insurance, the ones who are supposed to benefit, are about evenly divided.

    It's an illusion that this will be the first step, and it will get better.  No, the insurers will be richer and more powerful.  

    Major changes are never made by a political entity such as congress, they come from leaders....presidents or those who lead revolutions.

    Congress is a vehicle of established power, and what this bill is is a codification of these vested interests.  If it passes, Democrats will suffer for it.

    •  Clinton was re-elected in the midst of an (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Fonsia, durrati, RomanNumeral

      economic boom the likes of which the would will never see again.

      Obama will not have that luxury, more likely than not.

      And as for whether you think it's ineffective, 30 million people will disagree with you in 2014.

      Educate yourself about budget reconciliation here

      by I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:36:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Think about what you just wrote -- boom... (0+ / 0-)

        ...economic boom...economy...

        Yes, Clinton was perceived as making that boom possible with his laser focus on the economy from Day 1 and the tax changes of 1993 and whether attributable to that or not, he got credit (as Presidents tend to). The people (by and large) do not sense that the WH has a similar focus on the economy (though I believe they do) and instead perceive that the WH (and our party) -- in the face of 10% unemployment and little economic hope -- are obsessed with and hellbent on HCI legislation that involves a form of Government intrusion (i.e., mandates) that make too many Americans recoil.

        Arodb above is right, IMHO, and ramming this legislation through will not help us with the overwhelming majority of Americans who ALREADY have HCI and are not going to easily see the benefits they will derive from it. Yes, you and I know there are benefits there for them (primarily in the controls on pre-existing illnesses), but there are no near-term (if at all) benefits to them in the one area the vast majority actually care about -- substantial reduction in THEIR cost of HCI.

        This is only my opinion and you may disagree, but don't do what you typically do please, and that is to go on some crusade against a differing opinion.

        Learn more about second-class U.S. citizenship at http://www.equalitymatters.org/

        by Larry Bailey on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:08:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  And how many people have died since then? (5+ / 0-)

      How many people have died because they couldn't get insurance?  You wait for your revolution, I'll be happy that under that horrible Senate bill I'll actually get health insurance for the first time.

    •  Clinton was re-elected... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nandssmith, RomanNumeral

      The party was not fine... He let it rot.

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:42:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Clinton survived, the party didnt (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, EvilPaula, durrati, nandssmith

      Clinton distanced himself so far away from the Democratic party and anything progressive in 1996 that he was hardly recognizable.  Newt Gingrich essentially had strings on him telling him what to do.  At the same time, the Democratic party was wiped out at every level to the point that Al Gore had no functioning state level Democratic parties in key swing states to help him win in 2000.  

    •  Fine with me... (0+ / 0-)

      I have great insurance in a state with great consumer protection...I can wait another 20 years until I am 65...

      I just feel bad for the 15 million who would be getting essentially single payer from this bill and the millions of others who would have access to medical care for the first time in their lives...sad...

      Obama - Change I still believe in

      by dvogel001 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 06:20:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  They'll ping pong it (6+ / 0-)

    The house progressives talking about HCR being dead are saying that to motivate the Dem base in MA, particularly Barney Frank, who's actually from MA and knew his comments would get play back home.  

    They'll have to pass the Senate version.  Remember, the Senate still has that reconciliation option out there that was included in the budget.  They can use that to modify the excise tax, increase subsidies, etc.  But I agree with you-the bill will pass.

  •  Paul Krugman OpEd says PASS HEALTH CARE (6+ / 0-)

    It is from tomorrow's column.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    And meanwhile, Democrats have to do whatever it takes to enact a health care bill. Passing such a bill won’t be their political salvation — but not passing a bill would surely be their political doom.

    The House needs to pass the Senate bill with the promise of improving it with reconciliation and what has been hammered out by both the House and the Senate.

    Obama 7/09: "Don't bet against us" (unless the Dems screw it up).

    by Drdemocrat on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:36:51 PM PST

    •  They will do it. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Drdemocrat, Jyrinx, durrati

      There is no way they will not do everything in their power to get it done. And it's certainly within their power.

      Educate yourself about budget reconciliation here

      by I said GOOD DAY sir on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 10:37:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  why I don't think it will be improved... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larry Bailey, FistJab

      in reconciliation.

      If anything good were put in, or anything bad taken out, there would be such an outcry from the Blue Dogs and from the Republicans, aided by their friends at Fox and CNN and AP, that criticism of Obama's "underhandedness" would dominate the news until the mid-terms.

      I think whatever the House and Senate sign off on is what it will be.

      I also can't see it ever getting improved. When will we have 65 Senators or 70 or whatever we need? When will we have 218+ Representatives liberal enough to vote to improve it?

      We seem to be in agreement here that the Democrats will lose some seats in 2010. I could argue that it wasn't inevitable but I think that's the reality.

      How long will it be before we recapture those seats? Until we do, and until we get even more, we'll be stuck with a bill that we all think is a fairly poor first step, good only because it's a first step.

      Logically speaking, if we have to wait until we have 65-70 Senators and, say, 280 Representatives to get this bill improved then do we want to have a poor bill in place? Maybe for political reasons, I guess. Because I'm thinking that if ever get that kind of Congress it might be hard to undo this and that it might be better to get the good bill then, when it can be a clean bill.

  •  I think HCR will pass (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larry Bailey

    but I disagree with you on points #1 and #2.

    1. Clinton was re-elected, and balanced the budget in his second term. It wasn't the end of his political fortunes at all, though he came close towards the end.
    1. I don't really think it matters whether or not Democrats pass HCR or not with regard to their electoral chances. I think the mandates will be unpopular when they are rolled out in 2014, and that it's basically a wash: people are going to turn against the Democrats whether they pass HCR or not, in part because of the long-standing and popular idea that no party should hold the House, Senate, and White House.

    I think the Republicans will gain in 2010 and 2012, but Obama will win in 2012. After that, who knows?

  •  I hope like anything you're right. (3+ / 0-)

    The bill has plenty to dislike in it, but it's a huge step up from the status quo IMO.  I don't think I could stand to see it go down in flames this close to the finish line, all because Martha Coakley turned out to be a crappy campaigner.

    Hopefully, the House Dems won't be able to stand to see that happen either, and will suck it up and pass the Senate bill if that's their only option.  

    (Well, HOPEFULLY all this will be moot in two days because Coakley will pull it out.  Keep making those calls everyone!)

  •  Well... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EvilPaula, nandssmith

    The Democratic Party will not be electorally effective if a bill doesn't pass. A lot of you guys talk about how passing a bad bill would be for the base. Well imagine how it would look to the base, plus independents and moderates to see that we failed at our major, signature issue AGAIN.

    But the party ignored its base, it already looks bad.

    Corporate PACs, not just bribery but a lifestyle!

    by rubine on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 12:40:43 AM PST

  •  All this back and forth (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Budlawman, nandssmith

    ...about the health care bill....

    But the bill stinks, and I don't like it, therefore I have no reason to care about the election in MA.  

    Either way, the result will suck.  I have apathy because the Dems could have presented a great bill to the people, but they presented one that was OK'd by the health insurance industry, and they didn't properly talk about it...they just kept playing defense to Republican attacks on the bill.

    This apathy is the same reason a Repub may win the Senate seat in MA.  Not because the healthcare bill is so liberal and socialist that the Republicans are in force to counter it...but because it is so corporatist and a sham that Democrats are not fired-up.

    I can't wait till I have to pay my fine for not buying crap for-profit insurance because even with subsidies, I cannot fit it into my budget.  

    I have lost any faith in the Dem party for the moment.  They will have to prove themselves again.  I think I will have to wait till I see REAL consumer protection in the banking/credit card industry, regulation for banks and the financial industry, repeal of DADT, etc....

    Something that is for the people, and not just somewhat for the people as long as the corporations still get what they want first.

    And Democrats supporting Marcy Winograd over Jane Harman would be nice (looking at you Waxman!)

  •  I think that is exactly what would happen,,,, (0+ / 0-)

    the House would pass the Senate bill with an agreement to fix it in the budget reconciliation process...

    Obama - Change I still believe in

    by dvogel001 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:50:03 AM PST

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