I think we have good news for Coakley ( I hope turnout exceeds 50% )
Two new cases added..
Assumptions
Sample Poll: R2k
Apply the poll voter screen is 39/19/42 ( High on Repubs they are 10.8 of total Mass voters)
Total repubs (10.8%): 420k out of Mass registered 4.1 mil voters (Max limit) Remember here if this peaks to less than 95%, voter turnout to win is even lesser.
Breakeven votes if 95% of all repubs are voting: 2Mil Votes
Coakley total
Dems: 780k (89/9) = 694k
Repubs: 400k (90/6) = 24k
Indies:820 (29/65) = 238k
total : 955k ( Already has almost 668k from Dem primary)
Brown Total
Dems: 780k (89/9) = 70.2k
Repubs: 400k (90/6) = 360k
Indies:820 (29/65) = 533k
total : 963k
2008 turnout: 73%
Breakeven 2010 turnout: 48.7%, anything more Coakly wins big time.
Simple assumption
Add 100k more votes total: 2.1Mil
Coakley wins 57/43 on additional votes (No repubs left to vote)
Additional cases
If Dems vote 80/20 for Coakly, we give 78k more votes to Brown, adds about 2% to turnout: 50.7% for break even
If we change Indies to 70/25 in favor of Brown, add about 82k more votes and 2% to turnout: 50.7%
If we change both breakeven turnout: 52.7
The distribution of additional votes change to : 52/48 ( I doubt on 80/20 dem distribution but what do i know)