Last night I made a prediction here on DailyKos that Martha Coakley would lose today because her campaign was such a cluster fuck.
You can read my original post here.
In spite of the fact that I voted for Coakley, and I am a 20 year Democratic campaign veteran, activist, contributor - I was resoundly attacked, called a troll, a Republican, blah blah blah. That part I don't mind so much. Well, maybe a little.
But actually what really pissed me off is that I got 20 HR's for presenting my fact based analysis about why Coakley was going to lose. That's right: 20 HR's for speaking my opinion, which happened to be spot on.
Those of you gave me the donut last night? Tomorrow morning you will be quoting my diary from yesterday when your friends at work ask you what happened to your candidate in Massachusetts tonight. So you can make it up to me now by showing me some love here.
Let me start by saying that I am as disappionted as all of you are. And remember - I live here in Massachusetts. Me and 6 million other people here are going to have live with this asshole Scott Brown for at least the next two years and possibly longer.
I also know that a lot of people here don't like election night predictions. Scratch that. People here don't like election night predictions that buck the party line - that don't say anything other than very positive and cheery things about what is allegedly going to happen (like "Hooray, we're gonna winnnn!!)
Let me explain why I disagree with this.
First, in order to win camapaigns it is important to be able to read the tea leaves before the election happens. It is important to plan for and respond to events that are happening that will affect the outcome.
Anyone can write a post election analysis and claim that they wrote it all before and waited to put it up after the election. Personally, I think that approach is crap. I think election night predictions are an important part of honing our collective political analysis and skill.
In other words, being able to accurately read the situation NOW will allow us to plan and execute better campaigns later. For me, that's kind of the point of all this. Honest discussions with other adults. Better campaigns. Better candidates. Better politics and ultimately better policy. I don't need an election night group hug here on Kos. Which brings me to my next point.
Some people here claim that it is insensitive to put up negative analysis on election night because it hurts people's feelings and discourages people from working harder.
My response to this: Is the Netroots still that insecure? Jesus, you people sound like Red Sox fans of old when you make this argument. Get a grip and get over it. This is politics, it "ain't beanbag". As though we are "forever cursed" and that even a single statement that goes against the group-think of "positive energy waves" will completely derail our chances.
Public life attracts a lot of great people. It also attracts a lot of bums and dirtbags, and it is okay to say that aloud.
Not that Martha is either of these things. I have said repeatedly that I think she is a terrific person. But she was a bum of a candidate, and there was little or nothing that was going to happen here on Kos between 10PM EST last night and 8PM EST today that was going to change the outcome of this election.
Finally, the degree of group think and 'piling on' that goes on here at Kos sometimes is frankly alarming. I am a better Democrat than many of the other bloggers here, and I have the 20 year campaign record to back it up. I don't deserve to be silenced or attacked for simply speaking my mind - especially when I was right.
If you stood up for me last night (as many Kossites did) then cheers to you. But if you threw me the donut, you don't owe me an apology. Ultimately you will have to live with yourself for being wrong and doing wrong. Besides, I am a big boy and I will get over it. But you do owe me a either a rec or a tip in the tip jar to make up for your mistake.