If we want solid intelligent health care reform anytime soon (including single payer) now is the perfect time for a big bold move. President Obama is up to the challenge.
I think last night's devastating loss for the Democrats may be anything but.
Conservative democrats are out in full force walking away from the party. Republicans have used obstruction and the anti-incumbent panic among citizens to knock the knees out from under health care reform. A confused mind says "no" and health care is nothing if not confusing.
Obama is probably going to lose this fight as he tries to re-herd the cats (Nelson, Lieberman, etc). Even if they had 60 "cats" they were probably unherd-able. Assuming it can't pass, Obama will look weak and defeated and the R's will sweep into office in '10, get the Presidency in '12 and health care reform may be dead for 15 or 20 years. (Hell will freeze over before the "I want reform, but we should start from scratch" gang ever introduces legislation in a Republican Congress.)
Even assuming the best case scenario and the passage of a bill, let's be honest that the R's have successfully undermined the branding of this effort. Every little thing that goes wrong (and this is complicated, so lots will go wrong) will be blamed on the Democrats' restructuring of health care and "assault on your freedom."
So here's the gamechanger:
Obama steps out ahead of the inevitable and says:
It's over. We're not going to pass this through reconciliation because it looks like you, the people, aren't behind this anymore and we are elected to serve you. The Democratic party has worked hard to achieve health care stability for the American public but we have failed. Republicans have killed health care reform and if you are sure that's a good thing, then you should thank them. But make no mistake, they did this. So, when you get declined for health coverage because of a pre-existing condition, ask the Republicans what options you have. When your insurance company rescends your small business policy because your child has a chronic illness, call your Republicans congressman. When you have to choose between eating and medication, call the Republican National Committee. We believe that the Republican party has made a cynical attempt to play politics with your lives. To be clear, they won. And we believe that YOU lost. We think that Pottery Barn rules apply: The Republicans broke health care reform, so now they bought it. From now on, talk to them.
(Obama's writers can do this far better than I.)
You walk away like this, you've changed all the dynamics.
This bold move parks responsibility where it belongs, including with the American people who are way too willing to succumb to unthinking populist anger over acting like grownups. Future problems under reconciliation passed health care are ALL owned by the Democrats. Future problems with no legislation are ALL owned by the people who have refused to accomplish real reform: The Republican party.
Gone is the populist fury that gets bad candidates elected. Gone is a legislation made weak by compromising with people who don't compromise. Gone is endless opportunity to demagogue this issue destructively. Maybe gone is an electorate that behaves far too much like adolescents in refusing to do the hard work to solve hard problems.
If you have any question about how this will work, just consider the immediate speechlessness of every single elected Republican representative (and a few obstructionist Democrats).
Time for a game changer.