We're getting down to the nitty gritty folks. Only four teams remain in the hunt for Super Bowl XLIV.
So far, I have gone 7 and 1 on my selections. I was actually going to be 8 and 0 until the Chargers' disastrous 4th quarter last weekend. Oops, I forgot it was a Norv Turner team. What can I say, I got Norved!
(The way the Chargers orchestrated their own demise reminded me of a certain U.S. Senate candidate...)
This week features some really interesting matchups. The Indianapolis Colts / New York Jets game could be a low-scoring defensive struggle whereas the Minnesota Vikings / New Orleans Saints partnering should create a wealth of exciting offense up and down the field.
Game #1: New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Of the two, this is the one I'm having a harder time with I suppose. The Colts are rock solid at home but the Jets are on a roll. It would be a dose of irony if the Jets defeated the team that allowed them to "back into" the playoffs.
Surprising many of his critics, Jets' quarterback Mark Sanchez has acquitted himself gracefully in the playoffs so far, achieving an overall completion percentage of around 60% and committing only one turnover. It will be interesting to see how he handles the high-pressure situation of Lucas Field on Sunday.
The Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning, for his part, seems like a man on a mission. If he replicates his performance from the Divsional Round, it's going to be a tall order for the Jets to defeat the Colts. Moreover, the Colts' defense was able to stifle the Ravens' running attack in the Divsional and I believe they will be able to do the same thing here, more or less. If the Jets are to triumph over the Colts, they must find a way to get to Manning - whether it be in the form of a sack, blitzing, pressure, or a combination of those. Although I would love to see the Jets upset the Colts and make it to the Big Game, I think Peyton and company will find a way to win.
The X-Factors: Dallas Clark, Tight End, Indy
Mark Sanchez, Quarterback, New York Jets
My Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, New York Jets 17.
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Game #2: Minnesota Vikings versus New Orleans Saints
In the second matchup, I'm going with the New Orleans Saints. Whomever wins this game I will be pulling for to win the whole thing. But I just feel that the Saints have too many weapons in their arsenal. Lots of healthy running backs and receivers to choose from. Although the Vikings defense can be scary, I concur with what Trent Dilfer said the other day: the Saints may have the best O-line in football.
However, the Vikings have a pretty incredible defense. To be certain, the Vikings' Jared Allen and Ray Edwards continue to find new and interesting ways to penetrate even the best offensive lines. But with the revelation of Ray Edwards' knee sprain from the showdown with Dallas, it's clear he will not be 100% for the game on Sunday. Ray Edwards was responsible for 3 sacks, 5 tackles and 1 forced fumble in the Divisional, so his injury could compromise the Vikings' defensive line.
Of course, the Vikings are no slouches when it comes to offensive weaponry as well. I for one am enjoying the spectacular career of running back Adrian Peterson. Though he has had some up and down moments this season (who hasn't?), his performance over the last five games has been excellent. In that stretch, AP can claim 519 total yards from scrimmage off of 108 touches (receptions and rushes), 6 touchdowns, and just 1 fumble lost. Granted, the Cowboys were able to contain his rushes somewhat (Dallas was 5th in the league in stopping the run this year). But he had some nice moments in the game, including a lovely 19-yard jaunt on 3rd down which contributed greatly to the Vikings' second scoring drive.
Additionally, Adrian Peterson led the NFL with 18 touchdowns this season and was 3rd in total yards from scrimmage (1,819), behind Chris Johnson of Tennessee (2,509) and Ray Rice of Baltimore (2,041). In his first three years in the NFL, he has amassed a stunning 5,313 total yards from scrimmage. However (and this is a big however), the last time AP played in New Orleans, the Saints shut him down almost completely. If the Saints are able to curtail AP's advances, along with the other Minnesota running backs, they could force Minnesota to be a one-dimensional (passing) team.
Of course, when you have Brett Favre throwing the ball to the dangerous Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Percy Harvin, this may not matter quite so much. One of the things that surprised and delighted me about last weekend was how Brett Favre stepped up and played error-free football. In years' past, Favre would often jettison the ball carelessly under pressure. This season, he seems to have made a concerted effort to limit his turnovers. In Sunday's game, for example, whenever he felt he was about to be sacked, he guarded the football as if it were his first-born child.
In the Saints' Divisional playoff game, one of the things that surprised me the most was how the Saints were able to contain the Cardinals' offense. We had just seen the Cardinals eviscerate the league's number two rated defense the week prior, scoring 45 points in regulation. For the Saints to be able to hold Kurt Warner and company to only two scores is impressive. As in the Jets/Colts contest, there may be a touch of poetic justice in this game as well. The Vikings didn't re-sign safety Darren Sharper last season and the Saints scooped him up. Might a Darren Sharper interception be the difference between victory and defeat for the Vikings?
The X-Factors: Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Minnesota
Darren Sharper, Safety, New Orleans
My Prediction: New Orleans Saints 34, Minnesota Vikings 20