I am not in the camp that believes that once Obama's poll numbers reach this point or that point, it means everything is over for all Dems in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles. But I do believe polls have value. They are a snapshot that, if read intelligently, can give information about the nation's priorities, and about how well a politician or an institution is satisfying and communicating with the public about those priorities.
From that perspective, today's Gallup poll is a bombshell. For the first time, the percentage of those who disapprove Obama's job performance is equal to those who approve: 47% each.
Obama has the skills and the opportunity to turn around not only his poll numbers, but his presidency, the political fortune of the Dems, and the next few decades of political history in our country, if he does the right things in the next few weeks.
Two of the things I most admired about Obama during the campaign were his ability to identify and articulate the zeitgeist (the "Yes We Can" speech, the way he completely changed the nature of grassroots campaigning), and his ability to take stock of what might be happening at a given moment and make immediate, effective course corrections (his response to the Rev. Wright fiasco, his response to the economic crisis -- especially compared to McCain's response!).
Since taking office, these skills seem to have been eclipsed by the exigencies of dealing with the disasters he inherited. And some of that is understandable. But for the past few months, his administration has been a rudderless craft taking in water. And that can only happen for a finite length of time before the ship starts sinking.
But I keep thinking that if he can reclaim his brilliance in those two areas, not only will his political fortunes (and those of the Dems in general) rapidly improve, but we may start to see visible realization of the hopes that inspired so many of us to come back to politics. He may yet become the truly great president that I believed I was helping to elect.
If he is to rescue him and us, it will have to begin the way all of his successes have begun: with a great speech. The State of the Union has to be Obama doing two things: (1) showing America he gets it, and (2) laying out a concrete set of steps to get us where we want to go.
I'm counting on you, Mr. President. Make me proud.