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I suggested few years ago to make a two weeks long Earthquakes Awareness Weeks in California and the Cascades Region without sucess, so I will give it a try here at DailyKos.

I just present the last two years datas succinctly.

Bear with me in a Realm where Science and Cultural Knowledge merge against all odds.

Snowy

Please take note that English is not my first Language but I have work longer in this diary for clarity.

Why I pushed for years for Earthquake Awareness Weeks ?

The answers are in the main text and all duly corroborated of course.

Snowy Owl

January 23rd 2010.

A unique Wolf Moon on January 29 & 30 of 2010 is expected.

Mars will be at its closest of Earth on Friday 29 January 2010 while at the same time the Moon on the 30th will be at its closest too, brighter and bigger.

First Nations of North America like in so many Cultures have observed the sky to forecast, interpret and prepare for the seasons and its works accordingly.

What I would say is particular among American Indians is that they have many times identify the Echoes of the Sky in Living Being of Nature.

I have devoted the last six years in preparedness to face major crisis under the pseudonym of Snowy Owl, you can Google ''Snowy Owl preparedness'' and look for yourself, it is well documented.

To get the most attention I would have entitled this important post;

Earthquakes Predictions, Bull Eye or somewhere in the ditch??

I hope my conclusions ends up in the ditch.

Most of Medicine Man and Shaman and quite a few Geologists expect the next week as a Rock and Roll one.  Let's hope our anticipations fades.

Perigree Moon

Kepler explained the Perigree Moon specifics 400 years ago. The Moon's orbit around Earth is an ellipse.

Astronomers call the point of closest approach "perigee."  

Many First Nations (American Indians) call this moon the Wolf Moon because in those night the Wolves howling are unique and annual.

Study links full moon to violent transformation

Researchers have demonstrated an eerie spike in very violent behaviour during the full moon. Source: The Australian

WEREWOLVES belong in fiction, but researchers have demonstrated an eerie spike in very violent behaviour during the full moon.

Australian experts looked at the cases of 91 patients who presented for treatment at the emergency department of Calvary Mater Hospital in Newcastle, NSW, all of whom were so violent they needed to be sedated or physically restrained to prevent them harming staff or themselves. Of these 91 who were seen over a 12-month period, they found that 21 (23 per cent) presented when the moon was full -- about double the number of cases seen during any of the other seven lunar phases.

A comparison group, comprising existing patients at the hospital for whom security officers were called to deal with their less-severe behavioural problems, showed no such correlation with the moon's cycle.

Clinical nurse specialist Leonie Calber, lead author of the study published today in the Medical Journal of Australia, said previous explanations for a lunar effect included the idea that as the human body contained 70 per cent water, the moon's gravity might exert a quasi-tidal effect on the brain.  Another possibility was that as nights of full moon were brighter, some people suffered sleep disturbance or deprivation that might trigger manic episodes.

Neither theory explained the link to violence, she said. Instead, it was possible that people were more likely to drink alcohol or take drugs during a full moon, which might lead to increased instances of violence and delirium.

...As with the Wolves so humans react to the Moon both are part of Nature as the Ocean and its High Tides on the Full Moons and the impact of the Moon on Water.

Now here is the point;

Sun and Moon Trigger Deep Tremors on San Andreas Fault

ScienceDaily (Dec. 25, 2009)

The faint tug of the sun and moon on the San Andreas Fault stimulates tremors deep underground, suggesting that the rock 15 miles below is lubricated with highly pressurized water that allows the rock to slip with little effort, according to a new study by University of California, Berkeley, seismologists.

snip

Now we also see that tides -- the daily lunar and solar tides -- very strongly modulate tremors."

In a paper appearing in the Dec. 24 issue of the journal Nature, UC Berkeley graduate student Amanda M. Thomas, seismologist Robert Nadeau of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and Bürgmann argue that this extreme sensitivity to stress -- and specifically to shearing stress along the fault -- means that the water deep underground is under extreme pressure.

Though tides raised in the Earth by the sun and moon are not known to trigger earthquakes directly, they can trigger swarms of deep tremors, which could increase the likelihood of quakes on the fault above the tremor zone, the researchers say. At other fault zones, such as at Cascadia, swarms of tremors in the ductile zone deep underground correlate with slip at depth as well as increased stress on the shallower "seismogenic zone," where earthquakes are generated. The situation on the San Andreas Fault is not so clear, however.

Now let's take a look at past Wolves Moons

January 10th, 2009 First Nation Wolf Moon with one in December 2008.

Earthquake in Los Angeles 5th December 2008 | Ready2Beat

5 Dec 2008 ... A 5.5 magnitude Earthquake strike the Los Angeles cities yesterday night December 5th 2008.

Earthquake in Sweden :: December :: 2008

16 Dec 2008 ... By far the strongest earthquake in Sweden for a century. ... December 16, 2008 + Posted in Geoscience, Sweden + ...

There was a lot of volcanic activities in December 2008
cf: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/...
Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

2009 Costa Rica earthquake

The 2009 Costa Rica 6.1 earthquake (also known as Cinchona Earthquake), occurred at 1:21:34 pm local time (19:21:34 UTC) on January 8, 2009. ...

Strong earthquake rocks Indonesia haberi - Sunday, 04 January 2009 ...

4 Jan 2009 ... An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 has rocked eastern Indonesia, meteorologists say.

Etc..

YellowStone activities started to be constant and on the rise in the last couple of weeks
cf:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/...

The whole point of this presentation is to lead you for the next 2 weeks to check out if you have your 3 days of food and water, your batteries, a plan with your near ones and a revision of the advices provide by the USGS.

Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety

You can download all pdf here

In the PREPARE section we have;

Step 1: Secure it now!

Reducing and/or eliminating hazards throughout your home, neighborhood, workplace and school can greatly reduce your risk of injury or death following the next earthquake or other disaster. Conduct a "hazard hunt" to help identify and fix things such as unsecured televisions, computers, bookcases, furniture, unstrapped water heaters, etc. Securing these items now will help to protect you tomorrow.

Download the Secure It Now! focus sheet (804 KB PDF -- courtesy Emergency Survival Program)


Step 2: Make a plan

Planning for an earthquake, terrorist attack, or other emergency is not much different from planning for a party or vacation. Make sure that your emergency plan includes evacuation and reunion plans; your out-of-state contact person's name and number; the location of your emergency supplies and other pertinent information. By planning now, you will be ready for the next emergency.

Download the Make a Plan focus sheet (436 KB PDF -- courtesy Emergency Survival Program)
Step #2 in Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country

Step 3: Make disaster kits

Everyone should have disaster supplies kits stored in accessible locations at home, at work and in your vehicle. Having emergency supplies readily available can reduce the impact of an earthquake, a terrorist incident or other emergency on you and your family. Your disaster supplies kits should include food, water, flashlights, portable radios, batteries, a first aid kit, cash, extra medications, a whistle, fire extinguisher, etc.

Download the Make Disaster Kits focus sheet (432 KB PDF -- courtesy Emergency Survival Program)
Step #3 in Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country

Step 4: Is your place safe?

Most houses are not as safe as they could be. Whether you are a homeowner or a renter, there are things that you can do to improve the structural integrity of your home. Some of the things that you might consider checking include inadequate foundations, unbraced cripple walls, soft first stories, unreinforced masonry and vulnerable pipes. Consult a contractor or engineer to help you identify your building's weaknesses and begin to fix them now.

Download the Is Your Place Safe? focus sheet (620 KB PDF -- courtesy Emergency Survival Program)
Step #4 in Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country

LIN YUTANG:
Hope is like a road in the country;
there was never a road,
but when many people walk on it,
the road comes into existence.

Take a couple of hours to spot check your preparedness status.

Snowy Owl

Originally posted to Snowy Owl on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 01:49 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is a good diary- (14+ / 0-)

    and I hope people pay attention to it.

    While we don't live in primo earthquake country, we live close enough to the New Madrid Fault to be aware of Earthquake danger.  

    When we built our house we used re-enforced concrete and built it to Earthquake code.  Mr. Hill used to be a carpenter/contractor and he knows more of the specifics of that than I do.  He also secured tall bookcases, water heater, etc.  What I could do is make sure there is no heavy. breakable things stored on high selves- a simple example is to store boxes of cereal, pastas, that sort of thing on the top pantry shelves, and glass spaghetti sauce jars, and heavy canned food items below.

    Mostly though, we just follow a "all hazards" protocol of making sure we have food, water, batteries etc on hand.  We ALLWAYS have at least two weeks supplies, though I try to keep as much extra as I can.  Mr. Hill and I were snowed in once for two weeks-(Storm of the Century) no power, no water, two small kids.  Thankfully, I had just gone to the grocery, and even then we were pretty well prepared, but after that experience, you can make sure we stayed prepared.

    It pays off.  Just last year Ky had an Ice Storm that knocked out power- for some folks almost a
    Month.  So often the "preps" you make for one emergency can aid in other types of emergencies.  

    "Real History is not for Sissies" Barry McCain

    by Hill Jill on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 02:23:41 PM PST

  •  I think the Haiti quake (9+ / 0-)

    in the middle of a large city has proved that a 3-day supply of emergency goods is not enough. I think I would plan more on a 10-day supply or longer if you can do it. And make sure you can get at the items if the house falls or is partially destroyed.

    The Justice Department is no longer a credible defender of the rule of law or the Constitution.

    by Overseas on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 02:52:56 PM PST

  •  Thanks for the excellent diary. (8+ / 0-)

    I'm hot-listing it (and recommending, of course). The only time I was in a tremor, the first thing I had to do was put on clothes so I could go out if I needed to. My friend across town did the same thing.

    FWIW, it might be worthwhile to stash appropriate clothing in a place that seems likely to remain safe.

  •  Here is an interesting site (6+ / 0-)

    from james Berklund, the geologist who uses moon tide, etc cycles to try to predict quakes.  He predicted the 1989 Bay area quake. (I went through this quake)  The study you posted seems to confirm some of his theories from back then.

    http://www.syzygyjob.com/

  •  What's interesting is that some people (10+ / 0-)

    don't think they live in an earthquake zone, when they actually do.  For example: New York City.

    One of the things to remember about disaster preparedness is to rank the likelihood of any given disaster, and have a plan for how long it would be before outside aid or recovery happens.  There's some common features in all preparedness, but others depend on what's likely to happen to you.  

    For example, I know that the likelihood of a major blizzard or ice storm is relatively high here, as is extreme freezing conditions.  I know that because it happens almost every year or two.  I know that heavy rains and flooding can happen here.  Tornadoes really don't, hurricanes haven't made it this far inland as hurricanes, and so on.  Earthquakes could, and have, but have been mild (5.0) and relatively rare.  So my disaster preparations are based around what's going to definitely happen, and some eye towards what is likely to happen at some point in the next few years.  A good deal of that can be applied towards the others, if necessary.  

    I think that I have had enough of you telling me how things will be. Today I choose a new way to go ... and it goes through you!

    by Norbrook on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 03:49:04 PM PST

  •  Well, it remains to be seen if your (4+ / 0-)

    predictions are correct but, as a former californian, i feel it's important to have an earthquade kit even if you live in an area not prone to earthquakes. They come in handy for all kinds of emergencies.

    Oregonians! - To the mailboxes! Pass Measures 66 & 67! Election Day - January 26, 2010

    by blueoregon on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 04:56:47 PM PST

  •  Thank you for (8+ / 0-)

    this diary and for making us aware that you are not a native English speaker.  It makes it easier to read (for me, at least) when I know that the you are working at a slight deficit.  I can maintain the flow in reading without being distracted by small errors.  

    Your preparation suggestions are good and the moon information is fascinating.

    -7.62, -7.28 "Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a broken winged bird that cannot fly." -Langston Hughes

    by luckylizard on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 05:31:40 PM PST

  •  As this diaiy is going out of sight (7+ / 0-)

    I have to say that I will be relieved from Haiti French Quebec coordination after tomorrow International Gathering in Montréal for Haiti.

    But I am still monopolize in observing geological datas.

    I have to admit that I feel uncomfortable about the next two weeks concerning earthquakes and that I will still be mobilise on this for two weeks.

    If I see the risks rising I shall come back.

    Snowy Owl

    Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible. Edward Teller

    by Snowy Owl on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 06:31:57 PM PST

    •  Thank you. I'm in NM so not concerned (2+ / 0-)

      about earthquakes (although Albuqerque does get a few tremors that are so slight hardly anyone senses them), but others in areas in the U.S. and elsewhere around the globe where there are possible earthquakes should be prepared as much as possible.

      I believe your diary is an important one.  No one should take anything for granted, even here in NM we should have food and water stocked and survival kits.  We never know what kind of event could happen.  Right now I just have a lot of snow.  lol!

      You are good for this community.  Keep writing diaries.  I'm sorry your diary didn't get the attention it deserves.  ,)

      Oh and, I had no understanding of the Wolf Moon.  I had heard of it but didn't know what it meant!  That is very interesting information!

      Thank you!

      •  Hmm. The history of earthquakes in NM (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AllisonInSeattle

        is interesting.  Even my city of Santa Fe had a 7.0 earthquake:

        An earthquake with strong local effects occurred on May 18, 1918, in Santa Fe county. At Cerrillos, people were thrown off their feet, a break in the earth's surface was noted, and fallen plaster was reported (intensity VII - VIII).

        And according to the article, most of the earthquakes happen in central NM near Socorro, NM. And there have been more earthquakes reported recently.

        http://earthquake.usgs.gov/...

        One never knows!

  •  Solar IS Civil Defense (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AllisonInSeattle, KayCeSF

    Solar is civil defense. Video of my small scale solar experiments at solarray.

    by gmoke on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 09:07:09 PM PST

  •  I used to live in an earthquake zone (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chi, AllisonInSeattle, Snowy Owl

    and actually experienced one.  It is not something I want to experience again.

    Now I live in tornado alley, and have had to grab the dogs and head for the basement once.  We had an ice storm a couple of years ago that cut power for five days.  The 2008 floods were devastating for a lot of people in Iowa. After the ice storm I started getting serious about disaster prep.  

    I always have a lot of dried beans, pasta, flour and other staples.  We can heat with wood if the furnace goes down, and we keep the wood pile stacked up.  I make sure the vehicles are full of gas, especially in winter.  We have a generator, and I keep containers of water.  

    What people don't realize is that if the power goes out, so does the pump in the town water tower, the pumps at the gas stations, the ATMs, and so on.  We could survive a long time if the grid went down, although it would not be a happy time.  A lot of my neighbors won't be prepared, and my assumption is that I should be able to feed more people than live with me, and keep them warm rather than turn my house into a fortress to keep them out.  We had a lot of people hanging out here during the ice storm to keep warm, and it was a wake-up call.

    "We have met the enemy, and he is not us."

    by 2laneIA on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 09:51:06 PM PST

  •  Thank you Snowy Owl. Emergency preparedness is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Snowy Owl

    important and can be life saving!  People prepared for disaster do much better when disaster strikes than folks who think it will never happen to them.  I found your information about the Wolf Moon fascinating!  

    A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice. Thomas Paine

    by Aaa T Tudeattack on Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 11:19:51 PM PST

  •  Ugh. Hooray for pseudoscience. :P (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sarbec
    1. There are over a dozen lunar perigees each year.  That's almost a thousand a century.  The highest strength earthquake listed was 7.2.  There are an average of 17 7.0-7.9 magnitude earthquakes every year.  Many of the earthquakes listed were tiny.  Tiny earthquakes happen many thousands or even millions of times per year (depending on your cutoff point).
    1. The earthquake dates don't match up to lunar perigee (what the diarist calls a "wolf moon").  See here.
    1. The link between tides and the San Andreas fault is extremely weak, and not generally applicable.
    1. Mars has essentially zero effect on Earth's tides.  Its gravitational effect on the planet is essentially unmeasurable.  Gravitational attraction falls off relative to the distance squared.  Mars is many tens of millions of miles away at closest approach, compared to the low hundreds of thousands for the moon.  The fact that it's not even ten times more massive is utterly dwarfed by the quadratic distance scaling.

    Please people... don't fall for hokum.  I know there will be people mad at me for posting this, because "it's always good to be prepared".  But for most people, there are more productive things you could be spending your time doing.  For example, go get a physical -- even if you live in an earthquake zone, it's more likely to save your life, will take you less time and cost you less money (assuming you're insured).

    If you live in an earthquake zone, what happened in Haiti should have reminded you that you need to be prepared -- not this pseudoscientific hokum.  If you don't live in an earthquake zone, you have better things to worry about.  Yes, they can happen anywhere.  No, you shouldn't worry about them.  All sorts of unlikely bad things can happen.  You could be hit by a meteorite in your own home.  Should you armour plate your roof?

    •  And for those wondering if they're at risk: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Snowy Owl

      Here's a US earthquake risk map.

      If you're not orange or higher, you probably have better things to do.  If you live in red or higher, you really should take the time to prepare.

    •  I am talking about full moon pedigree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AllisonInSeattle

      Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible. Edward Teller

      by Snowy Owl on Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 03:31:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In terms of space and gravity (0+ / 0-)

        While a "full moon perigee" does bring the moon closer to the Earth than perigee moons in other phases, we're talking tiny distances here. The gravitational effect on the Earth is minimal. Yes, it does affect the tides - but tides are a totally different thing than earthquakes and other factors have to be present to get a substantially higher tide at full moon/perigee than at other times.

        "You can fight ignorance, but you can't fight stupid." -- My mother, on CPAC

        by Sarbec on Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 07:31:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  First off, the word is "perigee". (0+ / 0-)

        Not pedigree.  Very different meanings.  Secondly, the solar tide is less than a third of the lunar tide, and also lines up with it on the new moon, too.  And it's practically irrelevant whether they match up exactly.  And Mars has essentially zero effect on Earth's tides.  Third, the effect of tides on earthquakes is incredibly minor.  Fourth, your dates don't line up with perigees in the first place, so they're certainly not "full moon perigees".  Fifth, your "earthquake evidence" is what you'd expect for any random set of days.

        It's complete bunk that you're pushing.  I don't say this to be mean; I say it because people need to know that.

        •  This is the difference (0+ / 0-)

          Between the scientific approach and the hitorical approach.

          Of course it doe not match exactly, look at the annular eclipse that occurred a couple of day later than the Haiti earthquakes.

          Now look at the inner solar sytem planets position in the last two weeks.

          From a friend

          It may be interesting to consider the positions of the inner planets on 12 jan at 5PM:

          Starting with the upper left: the bright blue spot is Venus, then coming toward center is the sun, then the yellow spot is Mercury, the purple is earth, and the pink is Mars. The overshadow of the Saturn symbol is an overlay of a different viewpoint. (source: http://www.davidcolarusso.com/... The site has a heliocentric animation that you can run or stop frame at a particular date.

          And the moon was facing mercury within that same lineup.

          Interesting coincidence, eh?

          As for gravitational forces, it i not the only factor, geo-magnetic forces are a major factor of the earth inner core reaction.  You can find that in the Encyclopedia of Geology in 5 volumes.

          Anyway the point is to emphasize preparedness and reading astronomical and Earth events with natural and historical references.

          Mann & al. had two years ago predicted the Haiti earthquake at the precise location it happened.  Then they said it should be a 7.2 earthquake.

          Humans needs to make the sismic and tsunamic zonage and avoid building huge cities and institutions in those areas if they have learned something from Haiti.

          Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible. Edward Teller

          by Snowy Owl on Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 09:34:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  More pseudoscientific hokum. (0+ / 0-)

            And I'm not normally one to complain too much about spelling, but seriously, please proofread; your post was almost painful to read.

            Of course it doe not match exactly

            Then they're not "full moon perigees", and you're broadening your range of dates to match earthquakes to even more.

            Now look at the inner solar sytem planets position in the last two weeks.

            The other planets are irrelevant, period.  They're way too far away to affect earth.  For example, Saturn.  The Earth is 93 million miles from the sun, and the sun makes up only about a third of the tidal forces.  Saturn is at closest approach 746 million miles from Earth -- and remember that gravitational forces fall off proportional to the distance squared.  And the sun is about 350,000 times more massive than Saturn.  So at closest approach, Saturn makes up 0.0000044% as much of Earth's tides as the sun does.  It's irrelevant, end of story.

            As for gravitational forces, it i not the only factor, geo-magnetic forces are a major factor of the earth inner core reaction.

            Earth's magnetic field arises from convective rotation of molten iron in Earth's outer core.  Other planets have not the slightest relationship to it.

            Mann & al. had two years ago predicted the Haiti earthquake at the precise location it happened.  Then they said it should be a 7.2 earthquake.

            I assume you mean "et al" ("and others")?  First off, a full cite includes a date, too -- and if you don't want to make the person you're talking to have to work for it, it's generally kind to mention the journal or paper title.

            I'm going to guess you mean Mann et al 2008, as opposed to Mann et al 1995 or any of his other works.  No, he did not predict a precise location.  The paper predicts an earthquake along the EPGFZ, somewhere in vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, or the Dominican Republic.  Here's a summary in plain English.

            Humans needs to make the sismic and tsunamic zonage and avoid building huge cities and institutions in those areas if they have learned something from Haiti.

            Oh, so we should abandon nearly the entire US Pacific coast?  The entire island of Japan should be evacuated?  Because both are all serious earthquake threat zones.  Sorry, try again.  Earthquakes are a force of nature that we have to deal with.  Those in areas at high risk for earthquakes need to build to a proper code and be prepared.

            •  Rei, first as I have written in the diary (0+ / 0-)

              English is not my first language.

              Since you seems knowledgeable about astrophysics, lets try to find common facts and trends.

              You must know that when the sun is at its minimum, the core of the earth tends to upsurge via volcanos and earthquakes (this has been observed for few centuries.

              On top of this when the Sun is at its minimum the geo-magnetic shield of the solar system goes down (30%) estimation last month.

              I am not talking about evacuation of Haiti, the west coast or Japan, I am talking about smart urbane lay out in relation to what we know.  This has not been done when europeans invade the Americas.

              As for high risk zones we have the technology to reduce the risk as much as possible.

              As for the dates you are right when you analyse times in a linear way but aas you can find out the absence of complementary geo-magnetic forces can trigger Earth core responses.

              As for the Mann studies, I do not know how to upload a pdf in a diary.

              I would refer you to better under understand the systemic dynamic to get Joel de Rosnay of the MIT book the Macroscope who explain in plain english what is systemic dynamic.

              Cartesian analysis is a tool in systemic events not the Enshrined Truth.

              Again I am sorry for my english but I reiterate that there is a built up of earth inner pressure going on and since I am devoted to reduce morbidity and mortality, I just make up a wake up call on preparedness.

              I suggest you take a look at Paul Mann January update of January 22nd at
              http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/...

              Snowy

              Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible. Edward Teller

              by Snowy Owl on Tue Jan 26, 2010 at 06:47:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Re (0+ / 0-)

                You must know that when the sun is at its minimum, the core of the earth tends to upsurge via volcanos and earthquakes (this has been observed for few centuries.

                1. No, it doesn't.  And anecdotes are not evidence.  You really seem to like them, though, as that's exactly what your original diary is.  It's easy to find events that match any particular circumstance you could come up with, but only a statistical analysis will tell you if they're any more common.  And they aren't.
                1. Volcanoes are not directly related to Earth's core.  Volcanoes are eruptions of pockets of magma that are very close to the surface.  If you get too deep, rock can no longer exist in a molten state (until you get all the way to the outer core).  The mantle is a slowly flowing solid.  The closest relationship to volcanoes and the earth's core is that heat from the core and mantle slowly radiates upwards toward the surface -- but we're talking geological timescales on this.
                1. The cycle of the sun has absolutely no effect on Earth's core.  The cycle determines a variety of effects on Earth: direct solar radiation (a fraction of a percent change between maximum and minimum); the frequency of solar flares; the frequency of CMEs; and the frequency of sunspots (which primarily just affect the former aspects).  The change in direct electromagnetic (mainly visible and infrared) radiation impacts the surface, but as mentioned, it takes geological timescales for heat to flow though the planet.  CMEs change the density and energy profile of the thermosphere, but that's even less coupled with the earth's core.  Flares and particularly CMEs change the shape of the outer reaches of earth's magnetic field, and provide a tiny degree of Lorentz force on the planet; however, they're utterly dwarfed by the inertia of the forces driving the creation of Earth's magnetic field.  

                On top of this when the Sun is at its minimum the geo-magnetic shield of the solar system goes down (30%) estimation last month.

                1. "Geo" means "Earth".  The sun cannot have a "geo-magnetic shield".
                1. The sun has a magnetic field.  While extremely strong at the sun, it is incredibly weak even at the distance of mercury, let alone Earth.  At 1AU (the distance from Earth to the sun), it has a strength of about 0.1nT.  Earth's magnetic field is 50,000 nT and a refrigerator magnet about 1 million nT
                1. You may be thinking of the solar wind density.  You might want to clarify.

                I would refer you to better under understand the systemic dynamic to get Joel de Rosnay of the MIT book the Macroscope who explain in plain english what is systemic dynamic.

                I assume you actually mean "system dynamics"?  System dynamics is a way of studying chaotic processes arising from orderly rules.  And how does that relate to any of the science you've gotten wrong?

                Cartesian analysis is a tool in systemic events not the Enshrined Truth.

                "Enshrined Truth" is about as far from science as you can get.  And what exactly does graphing ("Cartesian analysis") have to do with anything?  Please be specific.

                Again I am sorry for my english

                No problem; I didn't realize it wasn't your native language.

                I reiterate that there is a built up of earth inner pressure going on

                There is always "pressure built up" ("shear stress", in the physics sense -- parallel force differentials) in Earth's crust.  The amount varies from location to location.  Once it reaches the breaking point along a fault, it slips, and you get an earthquake, with the magnitude depending on the particular slip and terrain conditions.  The stress is then relieved.

                There is no statistical evidence of an increase or decrease in long-term earthquake frequency or magnitude, nor any theoretical reason to expect that strain (which ultimately builds up primarily from plate tectonics) is increasing at a faster rate than at any time previous.

                I suggest you take a look at Paul Mann January update of January 22nd at

                Which says, and I quote: "In 2008, Paul Mann, Eric Calais and colleagues presented a paper at the Caribbean Conference and David Manaker, Eric Calais and colleagues published a journal article both forecasting a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in the area of Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic."

                Which is exactly what I said.  They did not predict an exact location -- they just noted, correctly, that a particular fault was stressed, and will likely break soon.  Some faults are particularly stressed.  Others aren't.  And it's good that people are finding out which ones are which.

  •  For Rei (0+ / 0-)

    I will be covering Davos Summit and the state of union adress in the next few days but I appreciate your criticism altough I do not agree with your adjective anecdotals when you talked about my writing.

    If you want to continue the discussions it is ok with me but only in few days, I am too busy.

    I was talking about systemic effects, again take knowledge of the book entitled the Macroscope from Joel de Rosnay at the MIT.

    Here is a quote;

    Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity
    Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity

    Richard B. Stothers

    Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, New York

    The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980, as contained in two recent eruption catalogs, is subjected to detailed time series analysis. Two weak, but probably statistically significant, periodicities of ∼11 and ∼80 years are detected. Both cycles appear to correlate with well-known cycles of solar activity; the phasing is such that the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553–1972, reveals several very long periods that range from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records. Mechanisms to explain the Sun-volcano link probably involve induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions. In addition, decreased atmospheric precipitation around the years of solar maximum may cause a relative deficit of phreatomagmatic eruptions at those times.

    As for the higher Gamma-Ray from outside the solar system they do have effects.

    Thanks for your civility

    Snowy Owl

    Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible. Edward Teller

    by Snowy Owl on Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 08:15:07 AM PST

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