Given the current environment, conventional wisdom would suggest that Tom Perriello would be among the first freshmen on our side to go down in 2010. After all, once you get outside of Charlottesville, his district rapidly turns crimson red. The problem is that just like in NY-23, it looks like the area teabaggers are forming a circular firing squad.
Perriello's opponents are so divided about who is the best conservative to replace him that they are transforming what should be a gimme for Republicans into a national emblem of GOP strife, potentially setting up a replay of the special election in Upstate New York in November that handed the Democrats a seat in a region they hadn't represented in more than 100 years.
The favorite among national Repub leaders is Robert Hurt, who represents Danville in the state senate. He's a moderate by Virginia Republican standards, however--and that doesn't sit well with the area teabaggers. At least five of them have already gotten into the race. And some of them are talking about drafting Perriello's predecessor, Virgil Goode, to run as an independent.
Hurt seems to be tacking to the right, even though he'll be running in a primary rather than a district convention. As we know from the 2008 Senate race, Republican nominating conventions in Virginia are usually dominated by party activists, and the state's Republican activist base is as conservative as anywhere. For instance, Hurt bills himself as a conservative on his campaign Website, and he's trying to make nice with the teabaggers.
Hurt is doing what he can to win over his conservative opponents. This month, he welcomed members of the Danville T.E.A. Party into his Senate office in Richmond. He issued a mea culpa for his 2004 vote raising taxes and signed a no-tax pledge. And he has signed on to two states' rights measures protecting gun ownership and opposing federal health-care reform.
"The sentiment of the Tea Party is widespread," Hurt said in an interview last week. "People are very concerned about the direction of our country, and I share their concern."
However, a lot of teabaggers think it's too little, too late. They're already making plans to unite behind one candidate in the primary, or even draft Goode as an independent. In fact, some of them wouldn't really mind if a Doug Hoffman-style run by Goode hands Perriello another term.
"If Robert Hurt wins, then we have an ideologically inconsistent congressman for a couple of decades," said Bradley S. Rees, a conservative blogger and talk-radio host in Bedford. "I would rather we had an ideologically consistent Democrat who we can hammer on their records. We'll get Perriello in 2012 -- with a stronger, more consistent candidate."
In other words--a Perriello win in 2010 will be carte blanche to go full teabag. Go right ahead, guys.