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The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.

Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R) possibly
  IL-10 (R) which is now open
  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
  IN-02 (D)
  IN-09 (D) (probably safe)

Filing deadlines:
 IL - 11/2
 IN -  2/16

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
=========================================================================
District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Several Democrats are challenging Rush, but no Republican.
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe.  Rush has raised a quarter million, and spent $180K; none of his opponents have raised much.

District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)   Not confirmed
VoteView rank  14
First elected  1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents  Isaac Hayes.  (no, not that Isaac Hayes).
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe.  Jackson hasn't formally filed, but has raised $410K and spent even more.  Hayes has raised little.

District: IL-03  
Location Southwestern Chicago  map
Cook PVI  D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)  
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents There's a primary, then Michael Bendas.  
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe. Lipinski has raised $450K and spent $202K.  Bendas has raised little.

District: IL-04  
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that's saying something!) this one...looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected  1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Current opponents No Republican; there is a Green
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment  Safe. Gutierrez has raised $129K and spent $59K.

District: IL-05  
Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O'Hare  map
Cook PVI  D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley (D)
First elected  2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents Rosanna Pulido, Ashvin Lad, and David Ratowitz are all running for the Republicans.
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe.  Quigley has raised almost a million, and spent most of that.  The Republicans have raised little

District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago   map
Cook PVI  Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
VoteView rank 381
First elected  2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Ben Lowe
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment Unclear.  Roskam has raised over a million and spent about half that.  No info on Lowe.  Lowe is on Twitter and Facebook.

District: IL-07  
Location Chicago's Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D)
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Mark Weiman.
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate - $40K)
Assessment Safe.  Davis has raised $285K and spent more.  No info on Weiman.

District: IL-08  
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected  2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder "moderate" party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Dirk Beveridge, John Dawson, Maria Rodriguez, Chris Geissler, Joe Walsh.
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment Bean had two very close races, then did much better against Greenberg - but that was a Dem. year with a local guy running for POTUS.  Potentially vul.  Still, Bean has raised over a million and spent about half that; she also did better than Obama here.  Some of the Repubs have raised some - Beveridge $178K and Rodriguez about $100K.  

District: IL-09  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected  1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents Susan Atanus and Joel Pollak
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Schakowsky has raised over $800K and spent nearly all.  Repubs. have raised little.

District: IL-10  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents  Confirmed Democrats include: Dan Seals, Beth Coulson, Julie Hamos
and [Elliot Richardson
and several Republicans.
Assessment    The Cook PVI is a bit off, because IL gave a big native son effect to Obama.  The list of people who have raised reasonable funds is long.  See the Wiki.  The likely Democratic winner is Seals; and he is probably a favorite in November as well.

District: IL-11  
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger, Henry Meers, David McAloon, Dave White, Darrel Miller
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district, so this is unclear, but Halvorsen has already raised well over $1 million and spent $350.  Of the Republicans, Kinzinger has raised $522K and spent $311K, the others have raised little.

District: IL-12  
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected  1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Teri Newman, Theresa Kormos
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Costello has raised $628K and spent $448K.  The Republicans have raised little

District: IL-13  
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected  1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.  
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama's coattails.  I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn't look too hopeful.  Biggert has raised $804K and spent $216K; Harper has raised $173K and spent $90K

District: IL-14  
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative  Bill Foster (D)
VoteView rank 228
First elected  2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents  Ethan Hastert and Randy Holtgren
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment  Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well.  He should be OK, but it's not totally safe.  Foster has raised $1.4 million and spent $439K; Hastert has raised $515K (impressive for a challenger) and spent $344K.  Holtgren has raised $185K and spent most of it.

District: IL-15  
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
VoteView rank 247
First elected  2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.  But Johnson has raised only $111K (not good for an incumbent) and spent $90K.  Gill has raised $33K and spent $10K.

District: IL-16  
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI  R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected  1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents George Gaulrapp
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Long shot; Manullo has raised $480K and spent $306K.  Gaulrapp has raised little.

District: IL-17  
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI  D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D)
VoteView rank 151
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably safe.  Hare has raised over half a million and spent half of that.  Schilling has raised less that $100K

District: IL-18  
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Carl Ray (this site needs some help, and he even asks for help on the site), DK Hirner .
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Probably going to be tough.  Schock has raised over a million and spent 3/4 of that.  Hirner has raised about $40K and spent little.  Ray has raised little.

District: IL-19  
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus
VoteView rank 307
First elected  1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents He's being primaried and then Tim Bagwell (this looks like an interesting guy, but I don't think he has much chance here).
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot.  Shimkus has raised over $800K and spent $543K.  No info on Bagwell.

District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 127
First elected  1984
2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Visclosky hasn't formally announced, but he's raised over $400K and spent most of it.

District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map
Cook PVI  R + 2
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
VoteView 235
First elected  2006
2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents Jackie Walorski
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent, which looks unlikely.  Donnelly has raised over half a million and spent $178K. No info on Walorski.

District: IN-03
Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map
Cook PVI  R + 14
Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 338
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-45  over Michael Montagno
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents There is a primary opponent, and then Tom Hayhurst
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Gotta be a long shot; still, Souder, who has yet to formally announce, has raised only $227K and spent half of it, while Hayhurst, an MD, has raised almost $100K and spent very little.

District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI  R + 14
Representative Steve Buyer (R)
VoteView 380
First elected  1992
2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 69-28
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment long shot.  Buyer has raised almost $300K and spent $200K

District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Dan Burton (R)
VoteView 410
First elected 1982
2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Per the Wiki, there are lots of Republicans running, but that may be because there were rumors Burton would retire.  The only Democrat is Nasser Hanna.  
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot.  Burton has raised $418K and spent $307K.  Hanna has raised less than $50K and spent little

District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Mike Pence (R)
VoteView 431
First elected  2000
2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Long shot.  Pence has raised $600K and spent almost all.

District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Andre Carson (D)
VoteView 147
First elected  2008
2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 71-28
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents Carlos May, Wayne Harmon, Marvin Scott, Rafael Ramirez.
Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment safe.  Carson has raised $358K and spent $179K.  The Republicans have raised little.

District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)
VoteView 233
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Dan Stockton and Larry Bucshon
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Kerry and Obama. He's raised $272K and spent $116K; Buchson has raised $100K and spent little.  

District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Baron Hill (D)
VoteView 229
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Todd Young, Mike Sodrel,  and Travis Hankins
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, but not totally safe.  Hill has raised $644K and spent $121K.  Young has raised $216K and spent little.  Hankins has raised $136K and spent $93K

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 03:28 AM PST.

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