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    Who says that voters only blame incumbent Democrats? One week ago, I wrote that of Ohio's eight incumbent GOP US representatives, one, Jean Schmidt of OH-02, is especially vulnerable to losing this year: http://www.dailykos.com/... That was before I had polling verification.

    Now, a new poll released by leading Democratic challenger David Krikorian confirms Schmidt's vulnerability. A similar poll conducted by Pulse Research in June of 2009 had Schmidt leading Krikorian by 45 to 39, before primary challengers had entered the race.

    Even though four others have since announced their candidacies, Schmidt now leads Krikorian by 44 (43.72) to 41 (41.04), within the margin of error of 3.6%, and cutting Schmidt's statistical lead by half. Since preference for "some other candidate" draws 5.7% in the new poll, and that segment is likely in the anti-Schmidt camp, the race can now be judged as neck-and-neck, with Krikorian perhaps having the edge.

      According to a news release today by the Krikorian campaign, the poll was conducted using the Top Line polling service. 738 registered voters were surveyed.

    Michael Goldman, chairman of the Charter Committee of Cincinnati and spokesman for the Krikorian campaign said:

"David has come from a deficit of 6% in June of 2009 to less than 3% today and the campaign is right on schedule to win the Democratic Primary and defeat Jean Schmidt this November"

    Nathan James, polling consultant for the Krikorian campaign, said:  

"We believe that most of the 5.7% of voters polled who expressed a preference for some other candidate will not wind up voting for the incumbent"

    The news release goes on:

   

Among non-affiliated or Independent voters Krikorian has a 17% advantage over Schmidt.  Both Krikorian and Schmidt have similar favorable ratings however Schmidt has an almost 2-1 higher unfavorable rating.

      Now for some analysis.

      Schmidt's absolute and relative declines since June come as other Republicans in Ohio have been gaining over Democratic opponents. Schmidt's congressional predecessor, Rob Portman, now leads both potential Democratic challengers in the Ohio US Senate race. Republican John Kasich now leads incumbent Ted Strickland by between 6 and 10 points, depending on the poll. Republican challenger Steve Chabot now holds a crushing 54-39 lead over incumbent Democratic congressman Steve Driehaus in OH-01, even though OH-01 is considered to be much more friendly territory to Democrats than neighboring OH-02.

      Why the OH-02 anomaly?

      Well, for one thing, consider Jean Schmidt. Need I say more?  A Halloween 2006 editorial cartoon by Jim Borgman depicted Schmidt as a nuclear ghoul appearing on the doorstep of a frightened homeowner to trick-or-treat.

       On the other hand, David Krikorian is a different kind of Democrat. He ran in 2008 as an Independent, garnering 18% of the vote, the highest percentage of any Independent congressional candidate in the nation. Returning to his Democratic roots this year, he carries Independents with him.

       Yet another factor is that the Republican Party is showing multiple fractures, here at the heart of the old Taft Republican machine. A corruption scandal now pits two groups of Republicans against each other in Anderson Township in Clermont County, at the population center of OH-02, and Schmidt's home county. The new poll has Krikorian trailing Schmidt in Clermont County, the most populous in the district, by just one point.

        That Schmidt is being challenged by two or maybe three Republicans in the primary, including a Warren County commissioner and a prominent attorney, is yet another indication that this epicenter of Republicanism is subject to high-magnitude quakes.

       And so OH-02 is ripe for a Democratic pick-up in 2010.

       Yet the DCCC, suspected of standing for the Dysfunctional Co-Conspirators Commissariat, has DE-LISTED OH-02 from its red-to-blue target list. Over the summer of 2009, OH-02 was ranked the eighth most likely district in the nation to switch from R to D in 2010. But on the new list of the top 26 targets, posted on January 14 here: http://dccc.org/... , OH-02 does not appear at all.

       Huh?

       What?

      Is somebody playing politics with our politics?

       The rather obvious explanation is that DCCC and Governor Strickland had a hand-picked favorite in the OH-02 race, the Governor's hometown boy, state representative Todd Book. But in a series of events unfolding after October, Book was forced to withdraw from the congressional race after being caught in a corruption scandal of his own (click on tag Todd Book).

        Book, a machine Democrat from a fringe of the congressional district, stood no chance whatsoever of beating Schmidt in a general election.

        So what the DCCC has done is to delist a race, meaning Krikorian will receive less DCCC funding, only because its own less viable candidate was knocked out by his own corruption.

         Congressman Chris Van Hollen of Maryland now chairs the DCCC. If you'd like to give Chris a piece of your mind, you can reach him through his own campaign website: http://vanhollen.org/

         This chicanery at the DCCC happens just as the DSCC under Bob Menendez has cold-shouldered the Senate candidacy of the only viable Democratic challenger in Ohio, Jennifer Brunner.

         It seems that the national Democrats simply WANT Ohio to have a larger Republican delegation to Congress.
       
         To find out more and donate to David Krikorian, contact:
http://www.krikorian2010.com/
       
       

       
     

Originally posted to Ohiobama on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:01 AM PST.

Poll

Which organization will do more damage to the Democratic Party in 2010?

23%11 votes
21%10 votes
36%17 votes
19%9 votes

| 47 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    "Politics: The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." -- Ambrose Bierce

    by Ohiobama on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:01:38 AM PST

  •  I can't vote for those choices. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    danktle

    What about House Ds? or Senate Ds?

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:10:49 AM PST

  •  Krikorian should have sat on these poll numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ohdemvoter, Rasputin, danktle

    and quitely shared them with the DCCC in order to get them to pony some money for him to use near the end of the campaign.  Now he has given a heads up to Schmidt that, despite the seeming pro-Rep electorate these days, her job is on the line.

    •  Oh trust me (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos, danktle

      Schmidt knows. Schmidt absolutely knows. She does her own internal polling and she knows better than we do. She's known for two years that Krikorian would take her out.

      As for the DCCC, the more public the pressure, the better. I doubt they'd respond to any private message. Data is not the driver in DCCC decisions.

    •  Two things: (0+ / 0-)

      These are Krikorian's polls. And Ohiobama has been here shilling for Krikorian for a long time; it's fairly clear he works for Krikorian. Krikorian is an unabashed "conservative Democrat" who shouldn't be attracting a second glance from anyone dedicated to electing "better" Democrats and not simply more Democrats. This is probably about the last race we should be urging  the DCCC to get into. Keep in mind too that even if this polling were honest, and were not the candidate's. and meant anything  this far out, this is a Republican district and in the end, even when things look close, they always manage to pull it out. Even if he is the Democratic candidate (still questionable, which makes the dishonesty of offering only Krikorian, Schmidt and "someone else" obvious), he has no shot.

      Ohiobama, you need to identify your connection to this cmapaign.

      Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

      by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:53:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Anastasia shilled for Todd Book (2+ / 1-)
        Recommended by:
        greatdarkspot, twohundertseventy
        Hidden by:
        anastasia p

        and ran a fraudulent poll on this SOUTH Ohio race on her CLEVELAND-based website, to boost Book's candidacy.

        Then when Book was exposed as involved in a scam to hire his father's NON-UNION construction company for an Ohio state-funded project, Anastasia accused me of making the story up -- about a millisecond before the story hit the major papers all over Ohio.

        Seems like someone in Cleveland has something to hide here.

        I support David Krikorian in my own district. I support Jennifer Brunner for Senate. I supported Vic Wulsin for Congress in 2006 and 2008. I support many other candidates. I blog for candidates I support. I do not "work for" any of them except as a volunteer.

        And if you Anastasia, support another candidate in the OH-02 race, name that candidate.

        •  Since the HR is not explained (0+ / 0-)

          it's improper.

          •  I just explained it (0+ / 0-)

            You lied about me, with absolutely no evidence at all. I know nothing about Todd Book, and I know nothing about any poll relating to him. I have no ability to post polls anywhere but here at DailyKos, and I loathe polls s I have never posted one with a diary here.

            Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

            by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:38:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thank you for acknowledging (0+ / 0-)

              that you know nothing about this district, which certainly casts a new light on the dozens of comments you have made on this race in response to my diaries.

              I take it from your new admission that your comments on this race will henceforth stop.

        •  I don't know anything about Todd Book (0+ / 0-)

          I don't have a website, although I do vote for Ohio Daily Blog (but don't control it's occasional polls and a quirk prevents me from even voting on them). I have no knowledge of any poll relating to Todd Book. I didn't accuse you of lying, but you certainly played fast and loose with the truth (by the way, that story was barely a blip in local papers and never hit papers here, because Todd Book is a figure of no interest to us here. What would I have to hide? This race isn't in my area, and I'm not  focused on it, but your continuing calls for this place to support an extremely non-progressive candidate in a race he can't win is dishonest, especially since you work for the candidate.

          I don't have a candidate in Oh-02 and frankly, don't care, although Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory has just come out for another of the three candidates.

          I HR'd you for lying about me in claiming I am "shilling for Todd book" (about whom I know absolutely nothing) and t hat I ran a poll on him. I don't even know what poll you are referring to.

          Watch it, buster. Your vendetta against our governor is one thing. This whole Krikorian thing is another. When you get paranoid to the point where you think people are pushing Todd Book — who dropped out a while back and isn't one of the several candidates in this primary — you have a problem.

          Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

          by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:37:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Mark Mallory (0+ / 0-)

            is a personal friend of Surya Yalamanchili, who was running as an Independent until he figured out he couldn't collect enough signatures.  If you think Yalamanchili is going to beat Krikorian in the primary ......well.

            If you know nothing about OH-02, as I fully accept, then please stop commenting on the race. I do not not snipe at every blog you post concerning your northeast Ohio fantasyland, buster.

            •  Whatever (0+ / 0-)

              I have no opinion on any of the candidates, since I don't know them. But you have been relentlessly ommissive in talking about this race.  And you CONSTANTLY make calls for Northeast Ohio, laying dwn proclamations about what Democrats across the state will do in state races, even though we have 100 Democrats up here for every one you have in Pike County.

              Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

              by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 02:01:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Bob Menendez is really a problem, and I say (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohiobama

    that as a NJ resident.  He is entrenched in the Democratic machinery because he is a terrific fund raiser and that counts for a lot:  that's how he got the senate campaign committee chair.  I'd love to replace him but I'm pretty sure it would be difficult to find someone willing to run against him.  I wonder what sort of relationship Menendez and Lautenberg have because Frank Lautenberg has a different voting record.  Menendez, for instance, is counted as a Yes on Bernanke and Lautenberg a No.  If anyone from NJ has any ideas, speak up because the longer Menendez remains in office, the more immovable he becomes.

    •  Coming originally from NJ I can console you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CarolinNJ

      with this:

      Ohio has even worse intra-party corruption ;-)

      And heck, I knew Bob Toriceli!

    •  Menendez has nothing to do with the DCCC (0+ / 0-)

      And I'd say ignoring this race — which we don't even have a candidate in until the primary in May — is a smart choice.

      Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

      by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:54:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  backwards as usual (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CarolinNJ

        Carolin was referring to the part of the diary about Menendez and Brunner, which you obviously did not read.

        You have the DCCC thing backwards. They listed the race when there was a potentially competitive primary (Krikorian always had the advantage). They de-listed the race when the primary became non-competitive.

        There is no way that was logical.

        •  Again, what evidence that the primary ... (0+ / 0-)

          is not competitive?

          I still struggle to see how Krikorian's poll, which shows him losing to Schmidt in general and in counties she's never won is good news.

          •  double flippin ass backwards (0+ / 0-)

            Name the candidate who makes the primary competitive and cite the poll data that supports that candidate. Don't ask me to provide data on a candidate you can't even name.

            What county does the new poll show that Schmidt wins she's never won before?  And has Schmidt ever lost Clermont or come within 1 point of losing it?

            You already ceded this race to Schmidt, so it seems you wish to support your own capitulation.

            Full o'Schmidt.

            •  Mayor Mallor has endorsed (0+ / 0-)

              that Indian-American guy whose name I can't spell. It's impossible to say if the race is competitive until some outside polling not being pushed by a candidate is done. Until then, who knows?

              Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

              by anastasia p on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 01:39:45 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  The eastern counties (0+ / 0-)

              There hasn't been a single poll in this race to show how Krikorian does head-to-head against ANYONE in the primary.

              That's all I'm saying.  Krikorian doesn't lead in endorsements, there's no poll showing him the likely Democratic nominee, you know, the things people USUALLY cite in declaring someone the frontrunner.

              •  Because your frickin candidate WITHDREW (0+ / 0-)

                There was a poll showing Krikorian would have walloped Book, but now Book is out. The two remaining primary opponents, who only say they are in the race, don't have near enough the name recognition for a meaningful poll. They are not serious challengers. And you know that.

                Nobody polls candidates who are in single digits, and who may not even file.

                •  What? (0+ / 0-)

                  Do you know how to read a poll?  Because your candidate's most recent poll, taken well after Book withdrew, shows him LOSING those counties.  And yet, you claim he's a powerhouse there?

                  There was NO poll showing Krikorian walloping Book, or else you would have published it here.  Krikorian never conducted a poll that included Book in any questioning.  

                  How does one know your primary opponents are in the single digits if NOBODY has ever polled on them?

                  Paid staffer for the Jennifer Brunner Committee. Let's get Brunner elected to the U.S. Senate!

                  by ohdemvoter on Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 01:04:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Well, I have to crrect my senate vote accounting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ohiobama

      Lautenberg, who was pre-vote counted as a Nay, voted Yea.  Clever ruse, Frank, but it won't fly again.  Thought we wouldn't check back, did you?

  •  I would like to get some mojo going on this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohiobama

    The DNC is also missing from the list. They are going to kill it. Tim Kine is going to kill it.

    He ABSOLUTELY SUCKS.

    Seriously. I don't blame the White House or any organization on your list. I blame the DNC for the sour milk that has halted our momentum recently.

    I want to diary on the DNC's sudden incompetence once I have more substance.

    Oh, and on the Jennifer Brunner thing, many of the DNC/DCCC/DLC heavyweights scowled the day she announced her candidacy and I couldn't figure it out. But mark my word, Once we get past the primary, Portman is bang in trouble.

    "If electricity comes from electrons, does morality come from morons?"

    by danktle on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:38:39 AM PST

  •  Oh Sweet justice to take out Wicked Witch (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    danktle, Ohiobama

    of the East.

  •  Where was she last night? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohiobama

    There's an AP photo in today's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel of a woman who looks just like Jean Schmidt smiling at Obama as he entered the House chamber last night; Obama is smiling back. I noticed this woman last night as well. Is Mean Jean really enough of a hypocrite to elbow her way into an area where she can personally greet a president she claims to despise?

    The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

    by Korkenzieher on Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:55:53 AM PST

  •  Krikorian (3+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, anastasia p, twohundertseventy
    Hidden by:
    Ohiobama

    Am I the only one - every time I see the name 'Krikorian' - my mind reads it as 'Kevorkian'?

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