After a one-day SOTU-inspired hiatus, the Polling and Political Wrap is back. And, it must be said, quite full...
IL-Sen: Multiple Polls Illuminate Picture in Land of Lincoln
Less than one week in advance of their "first in the nation" primaries, Illinois is center-stage in the campaign conversation. We get two polls out of the state today, as Rasmussen takes the primary, and PPP takes the general election. On the Democratic side, Rasmussen sees a tightening race, with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leading with 31%, followed by former Inspector General David Hoffman at 23%. Cheryle Jackson trails at 13%. Meanwhile, as expected, the GOP side is a blowout, with Congressman Mark Kirk leading teabagger insurgent candidate Patrick Hughes by a 53-18 margin.
In the general election, PPP sees a real split, depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee. If Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic nominee, he has a solid edge over Mark Kirk (42-34). However, if Giannoulias falls short, Kirk is in a dead heat. According to the crew at PPP, Mark Kirk is leading the other two Democratic hopefuls by a point or two.
IL-Gov: Competitive Races On The Card Next Week On Both Sides
The Rasmussen/PPP combo plate can also be found on the gubernatorial side of the ballot, and with some extremely intriguing results. Since the primaries are at the ready, let's start there. On the Republican side, as with other pollsters, it is pretty much anyone's ballgame. Andy McKenna, the party official who is arguably the most conservative of the bunch, leads with 20%, but five candidates have over 11% of the vote. Every poll to date has failed to establish a clear leader (indeed, three candidates: McKenna, former state AG Jim Ryan, and state senator Kirk Dillard, have led in separate polls). Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Rasmussen becomes the first poll to show a fairly clear lead for challenger Dan Hynes in his battle against incumbent Governor Pat Quinn (43-37).
Looking ahead to the general election, PPP also sees a clear distinction depending on the outcome of next week's primary. Against the incumbent Governor, both leading Republican candidates in PPP's eyes (Ryan and McKenna) hold leads of 6-7 points. However, if Hynes scores the victory, PPP has the state Comptroller leading the two Republicans in the field, besting McKenna by two points (38-36) and Ryan by five points (40-35).
CA-Gov/CA-Sen: PPIC Splits Difference in Golden State Polling
PPIC, which over the past few cycles has been a pretty prolific pollster in the state of California, releases their latest numbers in the Golden State today. In so doing, PPIC gets to play the role of tiebreaker after two recent polls by Rasmussen and the Field Poll. In those polls, Rasmussen had the GOP candidates a little closer to the Democratic frontrunners (Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer) than did Field. PPIC, by and large, pretty much acts as a midpoint, with Democratic leads that were not as impressive as the Field Poll's, but a little wider than the team at Rasmussen. On the Senate side, the newest candidate in the race, former Congressman Tom Campbell, holds a double-digit primary lead. He leads businesswoman Carly Fiorina by 11% (27-16), with state legislator and hard-right candidate Chuck DeVore back in single digits at 8%. In the general election, Campbell comes closest to Boxer (45-41), while Boxer holds an eight-point edge over both DeVore and Fiorina. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race to follow Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, businesswoman and uber-self financer Meg Whitman's $39 million has been well spent. She has a huge lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (41-11) in the GOP primary. Despite that, she does trail Democrat Jerry Brown by five points (41-36). Brown, meanwhile, blasts Poizner by double digits (44-29).
WI-Sen: Feingold Trailing? So Says A Very Curious Ras Poll
Here at the Wrap, Rasmussen polls have generally been reported without caveats, a fact which has ticked off some of the commenters royally. This one, however, needs some mild criticism. They are hawking a new poll which has former Governor Tommy Thompson up on incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold (47-43). A couple of big problems with this: 1) They poll a candidate who is, at best, on the fence, but fail to poll a candidate who is actually in the race. Terrence Wall, who will have the cash to put together a real campaign, is in the field, but was not surveyed by Rasmussen. Why? Well, here is a theory: Wall's launch into the race has been a little rocky (the latest revelation is that the millionaire self-financer has not paid state income taxes in nine of the last ten years). Maybe pairing an incumbent Democrat against a beatable, damaged Republican wasn't appealing to Rasmussen. This is a fact which would be telling, indeed. 2) Their approval numbers for Feingold may not be an outlier (after all, no one else has polled that question for a few months). But they are definitely a bit of a deviation from past data. They have Feingold at a net-negative status with Wisconsin voters. No other pollster has had that. Now, in Rasmussen's defense, no one else has polled the question in months. But the last one who did (PPP) polled in late November, and had Feingold at 45-37. Even the University of Wisconsin, which also showed Thompson narrowly leading Feingold in a September 2009 survey, had Feingold's favorables well into positive territory (54-30).
IA-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Iowa, Gives Grassley Huge Leads
Rasmussen also polls to the southwest of Wisconsin, taking a look at the state of Iowa. Incumbent Senator Charles Grassley has a huge lead over all three Democratic hopefuls, according to the pollster. Roxanne Conlin, the strongest of the three Democrats in the field, comes the closest, but still trails by twenty-plus points (59-31). Another Ras quirk is evident on this poll--relative unknown Democratic candidates (Bob Krause and Tom Fiegan) have more than 60% name recognition according to the poll. That seems, to say the least, a bit optimistic.
SC-05: Longtime Dem Incumbent Leads, But Under 50%
PPP continues their tour of the vulnerable Democratic House seats across America, looking at venerable Democratic incumbent John Spratt in the reddish 5th district in the Palmetto State. The good news for Democrats: Spratt is leading. The bad news for Democrats: Spratt is under 50%, and only leads frequent candidate Albert Spencer by nine points (46-37). Spratt blasted Spencer by twenty-five points (62-37) in 2008. It is unlikely, however, that Spencer will be the GOP nominee this time around. GOP state senator Mick Mulvaney, who seems to be the consensus GOP choice here, also trails Spratt, by a slightly smaller margin (46-39). There is some good news for Spratt in the analysis by Tom Jensen: Spratt is well considered by his constituents, who find him to be a proper ideological fit for the district. In a district where the President's job approval is quite yucky, some separation for Spratt would be a good thing, indeed. Other good news, blogged today by Jensen: if Democrats can coalesce around a candidate, Jim DeMint could be in deep trouble. DeMint only leads a generic Dem by a four point margin (45-41) in this district, carried by John McCain in 2008 by a solid seven-point margin.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- AR-Sen/AR-02: Given the revelation yesterday that Congressman John Boozman is all but in to a challenge against incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, it might have been expected that the field would clear. One of the biggest names in the largely unremarkable field, however, made clear today that he is not standing down. State Senator Gilbert Baker made clear today that he will not move out of the Senate race in favor of a bid in AR-02, where Democratic incumbent Vic Snyder elected to retire earlier in the month. Perhaps Baker was dissuaded by the fact that former US Attorney Tim Griffin has been in the field for a while, and has already raised a pretty sizeable sum of cash.
- CT-Gov: Is it possible that we have another Republican casualty from the class of 2006/2008 contemplating a political second act? It appears so, as it is looking like longtime Connecticut Congressman Chris Shays is eyeing a political comeback by entering into the gubernatorial race. If Shays jumps in, he will battle Lt. Governor Michael Fedele and wealthy self-financer Tom Foley.
- MI-Gov: It looks like Democrats might be able to catch a break in Michigan, after all. The latest name to get mentioned in the wind as a potential gubernatorial candidate is former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz. Why is this good news for the Democrats? Because Schwarz might run as an Independent. Schwarz, who was drummed out of Congress in a GOP primary in 2006, owes very little to the GOP as a result of that experience. The Democratic and Republican fields are very fluid here.
- IN-Sen: A couple of days after Congressman Mike Pence broke Republican hearts by demurring from a 2010 challenge to Senator Evan Bayh, the GOP have a potential lifeline. Secretary of State Todd Rokita, who has been a pretty solid statewide vote-getter, is reported to be mulling a bid. Absent Rokita, the GOP would probably have to rely on John Hostettler, the former Congressman who is polling respectably against Bayh but is known as a weak fundraiser and campaigner.
- Kentucky: Yesterday was the filing deadline for the major parties in the Bluegrass State. Good news for Kentucky Democrats: they managed to find candidates for all four Republican incumbents. Both Democratic incumbents, however, are also facing Republican opposition. As expected, the Senate race is set, with Rand Paul and Trey Grayson pacing the GOP field while the Democratic contest is expected to be a showdown between Dan Mongiardo and Jack Conway.