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So, should we call this the post-smackdown version of the Wrap??

Tonight will also mark the debut of a slightly different look for the Wrap, in an effort to make it more readable. All the polls will be presented together with toplines, and then a blanket analysis will follow. The news of the day will still be done in the bullet format to which you, dear reader, have no grown accustomed. This should make it easier for the "bottom line" poll fans to get their numbers fast.


FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 46, Alex Sink (D) 35 (Rasmussen)

WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 48, Tom Barrett (D) 38 (Rasmussen)

WI-Gov: Mark Neumann (R) 42, Tom Barrett (D) 38 (Rasmussen)

NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 47, Elaine Marshall (D) 37 (Rasmussen)

NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 50, Cal Cunningham (D) 34 (Rasmussen)

GA-04 (D): Rep. Hank Johnson 47, Vernon Jones 19, Connie Stokes 12 (Lake-D)

NH-02 (R): Charlie Bass 42, Jennifer Horn 19 (CrossTarget-R)

ANALYSIS: We head into the weekend with a Ras-a-palooza, and it is, to say the least, a predictable one. Republicans, everywhere, are triumphant. Richard Burr's numbers should make eyes pop for a couple of reasons. For one thing, the margins are a bit more generous than other pollsters. For another, they have Burr at an audacious favorability spread of 56/32, which is way wider than anyone else has had in the Tar Heel State. Florida is a new get for Rasmussen, which suggests that Crist-Rubio numbers are presumably on the way, along with general elex numbers with Democrat Kendrick Meek. Lastly, we can add a couple of partisan polls to the mix (longtime Wrap readers will scoff at my delineating between Ras polls and partisan polls). No surprises, really, in either one.


  • AR-Sen: It is now veering very close to being official--apparently GOP Congressman John Boozman is teasing a major announcement on February 6th in Little Rock. This would be the much-rumored announcement that he will run for the Senate this year, challenging Blanche Lincoln. One potentially delicious development that was touched on in the Wrap yesterday--leading Senate candidate (to this point) Gilbert Baker is staying in. Better still: it looks like he might get a little teabaggy on Boozman, with Baker campaign talkers referencing Boozman's Washingtonian background.
  • OH-Sen: Several days back, the Wrap referenced the somewhat surprising news that wealthy Republican car dealer Tom Ganley had outraised both insider GOP frontrunner Rob Portman and Democrat Lee Fisher in the fourth quarter. An important caveat: it looks like almost all of that impressive haul (about $ 1.5 million) came out of his own pocket.
  • CA-Sen: Here is another campaign fundraising tidbit, and one that is bound to draw chuckles among Democrats. No doubt, as the campaign heats up, Republican Senate aspirant Carly Fiorina will be doubting her outsider businesswoman credentials as she tries to win the GOP nomination to take on third-term Senator Barbara Boxer. One complication, however: Fiorina's old employers, Hewlett Packard, have not contributed to her campaign. They have, however, maxed out to another Californian...Barbara Boxer.
  • AZ-Sen: Interesting catch by Crisitunity over at SSP--an interview with CQ had the unique hint that Rodney Glassman, the thirty-something Tucson city councilman that is running for the U.S. Senate, is a potential self-funder. Local Dems are pretty confident can compete resource-for-resource with either John McCain or J.D. Hayworth. Closer to home, Glassman actually made an appearance of sorts here at DK, as he was the featured guest this morning in Blog Workers Industrial Union's semi-regular "20 Questions" series with candidates.
  • CA-19: This primary should be entertaining! With Richard Pombo's entrance into the open-seat House race in California's Central Valley, some folks openly wondered if the outgoing Congressman, George Radanovich, might rethink his quick endorsement of state Senator Jeff Denham. Wonder no more: Radanovich took a jab at Pombo, saying that he would have been better off running "in his own district". This was a pretty solid shot at Pombo, who served in the kinda-sorta adjacent 11th district for a dozen years. Of course, one wonders if Radanovich feels the same about Long Beach-area native Dan Lungren and Ventura County native Tom McClintock, both of whom are Republican members of Congress California.
  • THE MONEY CHASE: It is high time to clear out the notebook on fundraising boasts in advance of Sunday's FEC deadline. A solid quarter for Ann McLane Kuster in NH-02, who raised $ 207K in the fourth quarter, and has logged a total of better than a half-million dollars. Meanwhile, out west, Dr. Ami Bera (who is challenging the aforementioned Dan Lungren in CA-03) had a third consecutive eye-popper with $ 240K for the quarter and nearly three quarters of a million dollars on hand heading into 2010. Roxanne Conlin (the leading Democrat for Chuck Grassley's IA-Sen seat) only had two months to raise cash, but managed to notch just over $ 600K in that time. Meanwhile, two Democrats in the Keystone State are putting their numbers out there. In PA-03, Kathy Dahlkemper hit around $ 200K for the quarter, but had more than a million on the year. Her cash-on-hand is a pretty formidable $ 683K. Meanwhile, down the road in PA-04, Jason Altmire raised over $ 300K for the final quarter of the year. More impressively, he is sitting on just a shade over a million dollars on hand as he heads into the home stretch.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 07:46 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tim Pawlenty's PAC raised $1.2 million in Q4... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, captainlaser

    after having been established on October 1.

    For comparison, Romney's PAC raised $2.9 million over the course of the entire year.


    •  Hard To Figure, Though... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Trix, blueyedace2

      Where his oxygen is during a Republican primary. The country-clubbers, I would think, would love them some Romney. The teabaggers are going to be clamoring for Palin. Is there a Third Way in the GOP? Maybe, but not an obvious one...

      To paraphrase a great line from the Joan Allen/Gary Oldman film The Contender, I get the vibe that Pawlenty is the future of the Republican Party. And he always will be.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 08:06:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does anyone poll except Republican Rasmussen? (6+ / 0-)

    we know they are not the worlds worst poll but they ARE a Republican arm/Fox arm and GOP leaning. God, I am certain they are scaring off candidates and creating false alarm. If you read the Rassmussen polls all DEMS I guess ought to stay the fuc...home.

  •  Did you catch Steve Buyer (R, IN) withdrew from (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, beltane, KingofSpades

    2010 House Race from IN, District 4? Reason given: wife's health. into question: being investigated by FBI for mishandiling money raised for student scholarships used for personal entertainment of political contributors.  

    Indiana District 4 is a long, geremandered district string doem from east of Indianapolis to Bloomington, In through some of the most red-necked areas in the USA.  

    •  I Did See It.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueyedace2, drmah

      It happened so early in the day that I kinda forgot to add it tonight.

      Not a district Democrats are likely to be competitive in, quite clearly.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 08:03:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting discussion on Indiana Week in Review (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, blueyedace2, Steve Singiser

        (IWIR: Local PBS station) pointed out this could bring a shuffle of Indiana Republican leaders for who runs againest Bayh and who waits to run for govenor in 2012.  (Term Limits mean this will be an open position.)  Pence muddied the waters by decling to run against Bayh, and Rokita may have jumped too soon since he lives in Buyer's district.  

  •  I REALLY doubt the WI Gov numbers (6+ / 0-)

    Scott Walker is hated in Madison and in the city of Milwaukee, and unknown in the rest of the state.  We went for Obama by double digits, and Barret has had nothing but good press.  He's well liked in the population centers, and has had good press after the state fair heroism.

    Obama 2012: Because even if you're pissed at him, try to imagine the alternatives

    by TobyRocksSoHard on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 07:55:25 PM PST

  •  Obama Fights for the Center (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Good going, Mr. President. At least you told them basically what the progressives would tell them if they (A) had the patience and (B) the clear language and (C) the desire to take on their tiresome rhetoric face-to-face.

    It's a good thing you aren't an "ideologue" (that is, a heart-felt progressive), because they would have been taking them out of there on stretchers.

    Or, is that a bad thing?

    No, no! A good thing. I don't wish evil on them.

  •  I'm In Ohio Though Fresh From 10 Yr Absence (0+ / 0-)

    so I'm not up to speed. Of the OH car dealers I've known, Ganley isn't one. I'll have to poke around and see what's up.

    So far I'm with Bruner.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 07:59:08 PM PST

  •  We need a poll in Illinois for Senate (0+ / 0-)

    but by a poll, I mean a "post Giannoulias bank failure" poll.  

  •  Two polls that you can affect. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmo, blueyedace2, KingofSpades

    The Baltimore Sun poll which says we shouldn't spend $33B on jobs


    the wbaltv poll which says 89% of the respondents think that President Obama's speech will not bring bipartisanship.

    Who votes in these polls?

    "Progress" is the core of progressive. Two steps forward. One step back.

    by captainlaser on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 08:16:52 PM PST

  •  <==Caprica Distracted==> n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The lesson of that history is that you must not despair, that if you are right, and you persist, things will change. -Howard Zinn

    by blueyedace2 on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 08:30:17 PM PST

  •  AZ Rodney Glassman also wrote his own post today (4+ / 0-)
  •  Gee, what a surprise. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue

    All the Rasmussen polls show we're screwed. Who'd a thunk it.

    Dammit, it's time for some poetry! And some news!

    by Yosef 52 on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 09:07:16 PM PST

  •  I like the new format, Steve. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, KingofSpades

    This is one of the best features on dKos. One of the primary reasons I spend so much time here is for the news aggregation, and this it at its best. Thank you!

    An exasperated member of the Kick Me Party.

    by Jimdotz on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 09:16:27 PM PST

  •  Boozman may have a bigger problem (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, KingofSpades

    If being a "traditional" Republican is now the new evil to be excised and if shrub is now persona non grata, Boozman may have a little problem explaining his voting record (100% with shrub) and that both shrub and The Dick came to Arkansas and campaigned for him in 2008. Could make some entertaining ads for teabaggers.

    It also isn't going to help him that Jim Lindsey, who owns about 40% of the property in AR-3 and  much of the multi-resident property in the rest of the state, is the campaign chairman for Stanley Reed, who is already in the primary. Of course Boozman has Wal-Mart, but Reed, who has been head of Farm Bureau for 30 years, has Tyson and Riceland and major pull in the rest of the state that Boozman does not.

    Boozman is a nice guy, but dumb as a box of rocks (he is one of the few Repubs that didn't run from shrub during the campaign). He would fit right in with Inhofe and Coburn.

    Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. ---Plato

    by carolita on Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 09:17:00 PM PST

    •  All Great Points... (0+ / 0-)

      Also, it has to be noted that Boozman hasn't had a sweat, electorally speaking, since he beat Mike Hathorn in that special election back in 2001. Those electoral chops might be a little rusty.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 09:26:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lets talk about NV-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously, If I were in Nevada, I would not vote for Harry Reid.

    Why?  Harry Reid needs to either pass the healthcare bill via Reconciliation or just nuke the filibuster altogether.  And that needed to happen 9 months ago.

    It seems to me like he doesn't care enough about healthcare or any other part of Obama's agenda.

  •  NH-02 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Is Ann McLane Kuster a Democrat or a Republican?  More generally:  It would be appreciated if party identifiers were included with all the names, rather than just some of 'em.

    jest sayin'

    Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden, 8/30/09)

    by Land of Enchantment on Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 04:44:00 AM PST

    •  Sorry, LoE.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Land of Enchantment

      I usually do it when a new candidate rolls around, and gradually forget to do it as time goes on and a candidate gets multiple mentions.

      Promise to try to do that more often...


      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 09:23:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, and the Answer Your Question.... (0+ / 0-)

      Ann McLane Kuster is a Democrat.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 09:24:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats Are Going To Lose Big (0+ / 0-)

    in 2010 because there is no enthusiasim for us to go out and vote.  We donated money last year to get healthcare reform passed, and now nothing to show for it.  The democrats in congress are quitters and are now pretending that HCR bill never happened.  I will not be donating to Sink even though I live in Florida and it would be nice to have a democrat as governor.  Until HCR is passed I ain't doing nothing for any democrat.

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