Summary:
IA has 5 reps: 3 D, 2 R
KS has 4 reps: 1 D, 3 Republicans
KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D
LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D
ME has 2 reps: Both D
Possibly vul: IA-03 (D)
KS-03 now open but was (D)
KS-04 now open but was (R)
KY-02 (R) (just a bit)
LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.
LA-03 now open, was (D)
Filing deadlines:
IA 3/19
KS 6/10
KY Passed
LA 7/9
ME 3/15
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
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District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
VoteView 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents David Hartsuch is up for a rematch
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Looks safe in a rematch. Braley has raised almost half a million and spent most of it. No info on Hartsuch.
District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Steve Rathje, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Christopher Reed.
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK. He's raised a quarter million and spent little. The Republicans have raised little.
District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-42 over Kim Schmett
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Current opponents Dave Funk, Jim Gibbons, Brad Zaun, Pat Bertroche, Mark Rees
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Potentially vulnerable. Boswell has raised almost $600K and spent $223K. Gibbons has raised $200K and spent little. The other Republicans have raised little.
District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.
Cook PVI Even
Representative Tom Latham (R)
VoteView 290
First elected 1994
2008 margin 61-39 over Becky Greenwald
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Bill Maske
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district. With the right opponent, who knows? Latham has raised $450K and spent $105K. Maske has raised little.
District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Steve King (R)
VoteView 419
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Long shot. King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) will likely win again.
District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map
Cook PVI R + 23
Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Current opponents 7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI (see the WIKI for a list). Only one Democrat: Alan Jilka
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)
Assessment Long shot. Jilka has raised little; several of the Republicans have raised over $200K.
District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Current opponents There is a primary, but no Democrats are running.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Jenkins seems safe, even if someone runs.
District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Dennis Moore (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents At least five Republicans are running: Nick Jordan, Thomas Scherer, Patricia Barbieri-Lightner, Daniel Gilyeat, and John Rysavy. No Democrats are formally in, but some are considering
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Moore, who had close races early in his career, seemed safe. But as a open seat, this seems likely to go R. No one has raised much money yet, though, and the race is still shaking out.
District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Current opponents Republicans running include Dick Kelsey, Mike Pompeo, Wink Hartman Jim Anderson, and Jean Schodorf. Democrats: Raj Goyle. Donald Betts may run as well.UPDATE Betts has endorsed Goyle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before. Could be interesting. Goyle has raised $403K UPDATE $656K and spent little. Pompeo has raised $429K and spent $111K. Kelsey has raised a quarter million and spent most of it.
District: KY-01
Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)
VoteView 286
First elected 1994
2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents Charles Hatchett (I could not find a site)
Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Long shot. Whitfeld has raised $546K and spent $218K. No info on Hatchett.
District: KY-02
Location Central KY, bordering IN. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Brett Guthrie (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Ed Marksberry; no website yet, but he apparently just filed in late January.
Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)
Assessment Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign. He may be a little bit vulnerable. But it's still probably going to be R. Guthrie has raised over $700K and spent $139K. No info on Marksberry.
District: KY-03
Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative John Yarmuth (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Larry Hausman, Todd Lally, Jeff Reetz, Jerry Durbin, Brooks Wicker.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Looks safe. Yarmuth has raised over half a million and spent $172K. None of the Repubs have raised much.
District: KY-04
Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Geoff Davis (R)
VoteView 322.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly
2006 margin 52-43
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)
Assessment Long shot. Davis has raised over $750K and spent $407K; Waltz has raised about $50K and spent most of it.
District: KY-05
Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 321
First elected 1980
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 31-67
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Jim Holbert, David Prince, Ken Stepp
Demographics An unusual district. The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).
Assessment Long shot. Rogers has raised $270K and spent $170K. Not much info on Democrats
District: KY-06
Location Central KY, including Lexington map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 211
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson
2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Matt Lockett, Andy Barr, Perry Barnes, John Kemper, George Pendergrass, Mike Templeman.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe, unless Chandler doesn't run. But, although he hasn't formally announced, he's raised over half a million (and spent $100K) so it looks like he's running. Of the Repubs, Andy Barr has raised $186K and spent little.
District: LA-01
Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Steve Scalise (R)
VoteView 389
First elected 2007 (replacing Jindal)
2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 26-72
Bush margin 2004 71-29
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot, even if someone runs. Scalise has raise about $700K and spent about $500K
District: LA-02
Location New Orleans map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Anh Cao (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009 (replacing Jefferson)
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-23
Bush margin 2004 24-75
Current opponents Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson; and Juan LaFonta.
Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)
Assessment One of the the most vulnerable candidates in any race; still Cao has raised over $1.1 million (but spent $840K). Richmond has raised about a quarter million and spent little. LaFonta has raised about $100K and spent little.
District: LA-03
Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-61
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents There are three confirmed Republicans running: Nickie Monica, Kristian Magar, and Jeffrey Landru, and a bunch considering. For the Democrats, Ravi Sangisetty is raising money, and has announced, but I can't find a website.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment With Melancon out, this looks very vulnerable indeed. Sangisetty (D) has raised an impressive quarter of a million. This race is still very much in flux.
District: LA-04
Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative John Fleming (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009
2008 margin 62-38 over Willie Banks (2009)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)
Assessment Long shot, even if someone runs. Fleming has raised $700K and spent most of it
District: LA-05
Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Rodney Alexander (R)
VoteView 306
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 59% (no runoff)
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)
Assessment Long shot, Alexander has raised $559K and spent most of it
District: LA-06
Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district. Cassidy hasn't officially declared but he's raised $950K and spent $258K
District: LA-07
Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Charles Boustany (R)
VoteView 301
First elected 2004
2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 55-45 in runoff
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)
Assessment Long shot, Boustany has raised $692K and spent $436K
District: ME-01
Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)
Assessment Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008
District: ME-02
Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Michael Michaud (D)
VoteView 135.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary
2006 margin 61-31
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 46-52
Current opponents Jason Levesque
Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Safe