First, for anyone out there who thought that the Scott Brown win in Massachusetts would have a local ripple effect, Rasmussen (yes, that's right, Rasmussen) in their poll today has Attorney General Richard Blumenthal up 54-35 over former congressman Rob Simmons and 56-36 over wrestling maven Linda McMahon.
As Swing State Project puts it:
Even Rasmussen can't find a way to put a happy face on the tombstone piledriver the Connecticut GOP suffered with the Chris Dodd-for-Richard Blumenthal swap.
link: http://www.swingstateproject.com/...
So, why hasn't Blumenthal gone the way of Martha Coakley?
Is it because teabaggers are less enthused than they were before? Living here and having experienced everything from a gathering of Tea Party Protesters in our local park carrying "honk if you love freedom" signs (nobody honked), to having a guy in a pick up truck sporting a huge, homemade "Dump Dodd" sign taped to his rear cab door cut me off on Route 8 so he could make sure I saw his jerryrigged expression of political speech after seeing my Obama/Biden bumpersticker, I'd say not.
Teabaggers here are still vocal, they're still crazy and they're still throwing modesty to the winds.
Is it because the GOP candidates all suck? No. Simmons is still liked in Connecticut - the Rasmussen poll cited above has his favorables up 60%, with McMahon at a respectable 51%. So I think we can safely remove the "as popular as a root canal performed by an AIG executive" thing from either of the Republican frontrunners.
Is it the personal poplarity of the President foreshadowing coattails for the midterms? Honestly, I doubt it. In the Rasmussen poll, at a 70% approval rating Blumenthal is actually way ahead of the President's 51% (below Simmons and equal to McMahon's).
So what's the deal?
I think what's happening in Connecticut is the combination of a candidate who is able to illustrate to voters his values by actions (as opposed to political posturing or rhetoric), coupled with a fractured coalition on the right running in three separate directions.
This is what Blumenthal is doing: his job. As Attorney General, he can get results without the bickering accompanied by the legislative process, and he hasn't let his foot off the gas. Whether it's responding to the concerns of a local Holocaust survivor's group over the auction of what is alleged to be a journal written by Josef Mengele (link: http://www.courant.com/... ), to contemplating legal action against Toyota for possibly deceiving consumers about their safety standards (link: http://www.kentucky.com/... ), to speaking out against AIG bonuses (link: http://www.legalnewsline.com/... ), Blumenthal is out there, in front of voters, responding to their requests and giving voice to their issues and their concerns.
It's more than saying you're the people's champion, it's acting like it. (Note to Dems: try it - it works).
Aside from Blumenthal's powerhouse popularity, the other factor that shouldn't be overlooked is the three-pronged rift happening among Connecticut Republicans. When it looked like the Tea Party folks had Dodd on the ropes, hopeful GOPers started to throw their hats into the ring. Simmons was the odds-on favorite, but McMahon has deep pockets and businessman Peter Schiff was the right wing ideologue's candidate of choice. It was an embarrassment of conservative riches, a drawer full of Ayn Rand diamonds and all Republicans had to do in the primary was determine which cut appealed to their political asthetic.
That was when they were all united around defeating Chris Dodd.
With Dodd out of the race, instead of being united they are now fractured. Do they go with Schiff, the Tea Party favorite who has so little cache and name recognition that he doesn't even get factored into the polls? Do they go with McMahon, the body slammin' favorite of the big money executives (and let's face it, in Connecticut we have more than our fair share of those folks)? Do they stick with Simmons, the former Washington insider who's trying to make his way back to the city that barely functions?
Both Simmons and McMahon are so busy trying to win their political steel cage match that neither of them really has any time or resources to go on the attack against Blumenthal - and the teabaggers are still clutching at their straws of Schiff hope.
Obviously the midterms are months away, and obviously things could change in an instant in politics. That being said, could the Democrats actually try this one-two punch of fracturing the right and running actual, factual populist Dems who listen to the voters and run on fighting for what people want?
It's crazy enough that it just might work.