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Wow. Talk about taking one for the team:

As election officials across Illinois continued to tally the final trickle of uncounted ballots in the disputed Republican governor race today, state Sen. Kirk Dillard indicated he would not push for a recount unless he trailed rival state Sen. Bill Brady by 100 votes or less.

But Dillard could face difficulties getting that close. The Hinsdale lawmaker contended he had cut in half Brady’s 420-vote lead as election offices went through final absentee ballots and provisional ballots cast by voters who were not on registration lists, but claimed they met voting requirements.

"I want to do everything possible to avoid a recount," Dillard said. "But if it's around a hundred votes or less, then a recount is a possibility."

Given that over three-quarters of a million votes were cast in the February 2nd primary, it would not have been unseemly for Dillard to request the recount, given that the current margin is about six-hundredths of a percentage point.

However, it is worth noting that in the state of Illinois, the onus (and more importantly, the expense) of the recount process falls on the challenging party. This, it goes without saying, might go a long way towards explaining Dillard's reluctance.

Dillard could ask for a "discovery recount" of up to 25% of the precincts in a jurisdiction, and then he can head to court if anything turns up. The expense in such a move would easily head into the six figures.

On balance, this is a loss and a win for Governor Pat Quinn, the Democratic nominee. It is a loss in that Quinn could have benefitted from being able to hang onto his resources while the GOP nomination process played itself out in a protracted fashion. On the other hand, it is a win because it gives him, if recent polling is to be believed, an incrementally more beatable Republican nominee. Dillard, who famously appeared in an early Obama for President television ad singing the Democrat's praises, is probably the more electable of the Republicans both geographically (hailing from the vote-rich Chicagoland suburbs) and ideologically.

A poll released last week in the wake of the primaries gave Quinn an eleven-point (42-31) edge over Brady, and a considerably tighter six-point (40-34) edge over Dillard.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 05:32 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  well I think Quinn... (0+ / 0-)

    ...will be able to campaign better against Brady since he is so extreme but it will still be a squeaker I think.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 05:39:37 PM PST

  •  Dillard was the only Repub candidate I would've (7+ / 0-)

    been okay with if we did lose the Governor's mansion to the GOP. He's been a reasonable conservative who doesn't have a record of snubbing the opposing party just because he can, something Mark Kirk can't boast about in the Senate race.

    Dillard would've been able to have used his resistance to hyper-partisanship as a way to get elected, particularly in a state that still has a majority of independents and democrats who look at the President favorably. The people of Illinois would look at Dillard's endorsement of the President in a good light, whether or not he lost some republican votes.

    I think it would benefit his candidacy to actually take this fight regardless of the cost. Personally, being a reluctant Quinn supporter and former Hynes supporter, I lean towards someone like Dillard to be able to keep General Assembly democrats in check, and launch programs to repair the budget crisis with something other than just tax increases, but also by reforming state entitlement programs that are way out of control.

    While I will vote for Pat Quinn in the fall, this state is facing problems that the known dem party of Illinois is not capable of fixing. I simply don't trust Michael Madigan to lead the way on measures that will fix this crisis and right now, we need a real attempts to fix the state's problems other than what Quinn has proposed.

    "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

    by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 05:48:28 PM PST

    •  Ditto (5+ / 0-)

      I doubt I'd have voted for Dillard, but then -- if all Republicans were Dillard-esque, I probably wouldn't be all that politically active.

      The happiest person in the state about this should be Pat Quinn.

      Brady is going to get smacked around but good and even though I'm lukewarm on Quinn (though I voted for him in the primary), I'm gonna help do it.

      I'm not anti-downstate Illinois per se, but Brady has always been one of the worst in the state legislature who's always only too happy to take Chicagoland tax dollars (and for better or worse, about 3/4 of state coffers come Chicago and the collars) -- but cries bloody murder whenever we ask for a bit back in transit funding or what have you.

      Forget Republican/Democrat, conservative/liberal -- I'm extremely anti-Brady because he's a welfare wanker... the type that would have you believe everyone else in the state in supporting those lazy, corrupt Chicagoans, when in fact -- the equation is quite different.

      I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

      by zonk on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:15:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, peglyn, licorice114

        I'm still way concerned about what Quinn wants to do for the state. I don't think Pat Quinn can bring about the type of change and be the leader the state needs to do what will be necessary to fix our problems. Even Dan Hynes has been resistant to as much as endorse the guy.

        Quinn is a historically weak politician who's only real claim to fame is being Blagojevich's Lt Governor and being the person who spearheaded the last amendment to the Illinois constitution.

        If Dillard somehow won the GOP nomination, tbh, I think I'd be willing to vote republican for the first time ever. The democratic party of Illinois is not the democratic party of the United States and as long as they are in power, they will bank on their dominance as being a foregone conclusion and simply fiddle away while the state burns and kick the football another year or two down the road. I'm sick of the dem party of Illinois' (lack of) fiscal policy.

        "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

        by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:26:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I will say this for Quinn (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          He's always been more gadfly than problem-solver... sometimes, being more interested in getting headlines for "fighting for the little guy" than in actually enacting policy that actually helps the little guy.  In the past, he's often been his own worst enemy.

          However, I've been pleasantly surprised by his time in office... Maybe it's a matter of comparing him to the egomaniacal Blago, who was always looking to pick fights for no good reason.  Hell, the RTA/CTA funding crisis right now all goes back to Blago half-ass, last minute veto when he suddenly, out-of-the-blue, decided to push for free rides for seniors.

          I suppose anyone looks better compared to Blago, but Quinn hasn't gone out his way to pick fights.  I would have expected the opposite from Quinn.

          I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

          by zonk on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:34:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can't say I've been wowed by his performance (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            peglyn

            He's been nothing but a sitting duck waiting for the election to come. He's done nothing to really move the state. Blagojevich in establishing KidCare alone in the last couple of years has done more than Quinn has since he took office.

            Quinn has only really been there to pounce on opponents when an error was made, i.e. Dan Hynes and Burr Oak. Quinn's 'economic plan' for the budget was to simply raise taxes and just fall at the feet of the General Assembly.

            Illinois' legislative body has been nothing but bad news for far too long.

            If it takes a moderate Republican to fix this mess and show some measure of fiscal responsibility, then so be it, let them in, however, Quinn would still be better than someone like Brady who would just veto at will unless it meant nothing BUT massive program cuts.

            "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

            by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 08:39:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  you know quinn would be much better if... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          ...that asshat michael Madigan would cooperate.  Up till now he has been doing nothing I think because of the upcomming election.  If Quinn gets elected then MAYBE he will help out more.

          We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

          by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:18:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I still find it amusing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TLS66

    that four candidates were each pretty close to 20% of the vote in the primary. Shades of 1824.

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 05:58:23 PM PST

  •  And yet, no MSM theme about splintered GOP (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, delver rootnose

    as the winner stumbles past the post with 20.6% of the vote

    Subsidies without cost controls, regulatory reform means that citizens get a little more awful insurance at a huge cost to taxpayers. Like Part D but worse.

    by Inland on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:01:09 PM PST

  •  One of the things I like about my state, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    delver rootnose

    is that even when my fellow citizens vote for Republicans, they're generally the type of Republicans who barely exist anymore.  Generally pro-choice.  Generally not interested in culture wars.
    Brady is not that type of Illinois Republican.
    But with the teabaggers fired up, who knows what could happen?

    Okay Repubs, here's the deal: We'll start over completely on health care reform We're going single payer this time!

    by jazzmaniac on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:02:12 PM PST

    •  Betcha Brady will get teabagged. (0+ / 0-)

      Bagger might even get a few percent of the vote.

      They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

      by Ponder Stibbons on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:09:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jazzmaniac, LeftOfYou

      It will take utter and complete incompetence for Quinn to lose.

      Nothing's outside the realm of possibility - but if the Dems can't smoke him by at least 10 pts, they deserve to lose.

      I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

      by zonk on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:16:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can you say Martha Coakley? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jazzmaniac

        It will take utter and complete incompetence for Quinn to lose.

        I search still for evidence of Quinn, the tough, effective statewide campaigner. I voted for him in the primary and we need him to win. But I fret. He'll need volunteers, money and all the usual support, but I am anxious to hear how the campaign frames Brady and how effectively it manages its message. The primary campaign didn't show me much.

        "If you are going to tell people the truth, be funny or they will kill you." Billy Wilder 1906 - 2002

        by LeftOfYou on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:57:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hynes was the perfect candidate for Dems (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          peglyn

          It's a shame his campaign didn't have a couple of more days to have won over the few more voters needed to have given him the nod.

          He is tough, but humble. He had the better ideas and the better temperament. We truly threw away our ace in the bag.

          "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

          by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 08:49:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can't agree with that at all (3+ / 0-)

            Hynes' Harold Washington ad against Quinn was the sleaziest thing I ever saw. Hynes isn't as boring as he was in 2004 (when he lost to Obama in the Democratic primary for Senate), but Hynes' ads were Republican-esque.

            •  Precisely why Hynes would have no trouble (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              peglyn

              Hynes actually had the willingness to run the type of campaign needed to win, and while he didn't embrace the tactics until the end, it ended up being what was necessary to almost overtake Quinn in the end.

              Pat Quinn doesn't have the attitude or temperament he's going to need to attack Brady effectively. If he ran against Dillard, he'd probably lose.

              "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

              by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:37:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  you know I voted... (0+ / 0-)

                ...for Quinn just because of that ad.

                We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

                by delver rootnose on Fri Feb 19, 2010 at 03:40:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  You're among few (0+ / 0-)

                  the ad correctly highlighted Quinn's incompetency as governor up to this point.

                  It wasn't even about running a mudslinging campaign, it was about showing how Quinn isn't the kind of leader this state needs.

                  I know very few people who weren't completely turned off by Quinn when news of that early released program came out. They didn't need an ad to highlight it.

                  Those people that voted Dan Hynes because of that ad likely had not known about it until then, since most people aren't interested in local politics. Another day or two of that and the election result would've been much different.

                  "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

                  by r2wildfire on Sat Feb 20, 2010 at 09:11:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I disagree... (0+ / 0-)

            ...hynes is a tool in a state that has quite enough tools.  And I think he was Madigan's chosen boy so 2 knocks against him.

            We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

            by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:21:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Good stuff Steve... (0+ / 0-)

    I'd actually forgotten about this race...I must be losing my focus.

    •  Not a race to forget. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, peglyn, delver rootnose

      This is important and the outcome has to be considered uncertain. Quinn has never won statewide office above that of Lite Governor. Even after Quinn's promotion to Governor upon Blago's involuntary departure, nobody in Illinois seems to have any regard for the second office. Quinn has never fought and won a tough or, as far as I know, the least bit negative campaign. If anyone knows otherwise, I'd like to hear of it.

      Quinn could be swiftboated, for example. Quinn could fail to frame Brady effectively. Lots of things could go wrong.

      This is my state but I'm only now beginning to realize how important a race this is shaping up to be. If the Democrats lose the Illinois Governor's mansion, the gloating of the Obama haters will ramp up to 12 or so. Not to mention we'd have put a wingnut loser in charge of the state.

      "If you are going to tell people the truth, be funny or they will kill you." Billy Wilder 1906 - 2002

      by LeftOfYou on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:50:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'd rather Quinn have to run against Brady (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LeftOfYou, thoughtful3

    Since he will turn off the suburban crowd big time. He's a very conservative candidate.

  •  I actually live in Brady's home district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, LeftOfYou

    And I find it laughable that this guy is now the GOP standard bearer for the state (or rather, likely to be, baring a miracle for Dillard). He's a far-right whacko (one of those "no exceptions whatsoever" for abortion, for example, not even for rape, incest or endangerment to the mother) who will get killed in the Chicago suburbs. Quinn is no impressive candidate, but even he should be able to thump Brady.

    •  The Real Question Here (0+ / 0-)

      How will Quinn campaign? If he gets out in front and properly frames Brady as an extremist, fine. But that requires an attack dog mentality in the campaigner. Though Quinn, as I understand it, has a reputation as a gadfly and sometime crusader, I've not seen him as the kind of campaigner who might actually pull off what you, and I hope for in terms of wiping Brady out, the earlier the better.

      "If you are going to tell people the truth, be funny or they will kill you." Billy Wilder 1906 - 2002

      by LeftOfYou on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 06:40:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My prediction (0+ / 0-)

    Here is my prediction. In the first debate, Brady will look like the complete out of touch candidate that he is with the majority of people in Illinois.
    This will leave Quinn and Rich Whitney (Green Party candidate) to fight each other out. This will force Quinn to adopt some of the Green Party's platform and Quinn will barely beat Whitney with Brady far behind. I know this seem far fetch but I ready somewhere that Whitney got more votes in the 2006 election than Brady did in the primary.

    •  No way (0+ / 0-)

      The Republican base is still way more energized altogether than Democrats are. Hell, even I don't want to come out and vote with how terrible of a choice we're being forced to make between two bad candidates.

      Green Party might take more votes from Dems than usual, which could possibly weaken Quinn in the General.

      "Our sins don't define the whole picture of who we are" Edward M Kennedy

      by r2wildfire on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 08:43:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no way... (0+ / 0-)

        ...Illinois is a machine state on both sides.  This will come down to which machine works harder for the candidate to get out the vote.  And I fear the Republicans will be more energised and united.  it will be closer than I like.

        We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

        by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:25:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rich Whitney = anti-Blagojevich. (0+ / 0-)

      He outperformed all other Greens running statewide (and they had a full slate) by 6-7%.

      That difference is almost entirely Democrats who would not vote for Rod Blagojevich.

      Whitney will be lucky to pull 5% this time around.  That's important, because the Greens have to pull 5% to keep ballot access.  Illinois has scarily regressive laws for punishing minor parties.

      Rich Whitney is my first choice, and I voted for him last time too.  But I have no illusions that the 11% he received in 2006 was a base number.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 07:52:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  man this place is... (0+ / 0-)

    ..really dead today.  only 25 comments on any front page item is really slow.  Did someone piss in the punch bowl or something.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:16:07 PM PST

    •  the "anti's" (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe a lot of good folks are finally getting turned off enough by the "anti-everything" crowd that they're fed up and taking a break.

      save our democracy! freespeechforpeople.org

      by thoughtful3 on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:23:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt that... (0+ / 0-)

        ...more like the olympcs or something.  If you get upset about somebody not on the front page dissing a candidate you support try walking a republicant precinct.

        We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

        by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:27:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  i have walked repub precincts (0+ / 0-)

          In Indiana, during 2008 for Obama.  Which is why I don't understand so many of his so-called "supporters" jumping ship so soon.

          save our democracy! freespeechforpeople.org

          by thoughtful3 on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:29:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I get the feeling that .. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus

            ...people are not jumping ship on the issues they care about just the messengers who are not doing a good job delivering the message into law.

            Just my 2 cents though.

            We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

            by delver rootnose on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 09:37:04 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  fair enough (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              peglyn

              But, you'd think that if they'd worked for years on these issues, they'd have more patience with a president only one year into office who walked into a sh*tstorm of problems on every level--and, that they'd see and recognize progress when it happens instead of just "what hasn't been accomplished yet" all the time.  

              save our democracy! freespeechforpeople.org

              by thoughtful3 on Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 11:31:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Brady is a right-wing wacko (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peglyn, thoughtful3

    not the kind of Republican that's elected in Illinois.

    Dillard would have won against Quinn.

  •  i think it hurts us on the senate race (0+ / 0-)

    if dillard had won, there would have been two moderates in the lead races for the republicans.  republicans don't love mark kirk, and if dillard was the senate candidate i think a lot of them would have sat at home.

    but the republican coalition now is a moderate senator from the suburbs and a conservative downstater for the governor's job.  if they can both mobilize their folks to vote for each of them the republicans have come up with their best combination, given the primary nominees.

    remember that republicans don't care about actually governing, so the fact dillard would be better means very little to them.  also, remember that we have totally lost the prostitute beater vote we could have had by retaining cohen.

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