There aren't many electoral bombshells in the queue on this Friday evening, but there is an ample amount of headlines, including some new data in races that we haven't seen a lot of numbers on thus far in the cycle (Vermont Governor's race, anyone?)...
THE U.S. SENATE
IA-Sen: R2K Poll Has Grassley Ahead, But Not In Landslide
It is hard to define a poll where the incumbent Republican has a 21-point lead as a surprise, but given the electoral history for longtime Senator Chuck Grassley, this has to be defined as closer than normal. Grassley has a 56-35 lead over Democrat Roxanne Conlin, according to a new poll conducted on behalf of KCCI-TV by Research 2000 (who also polls for Daily Kos). Fifty-six percent would seem reasonably safe (and it probably is), but it is worth noting that Grassley has not been held beneath 60% since his maiden run for the Senate in 1980 (where he won with 54% of the vote).
IN-Sen: New Post-Bayh Rasmussen Poll Borders on Self-Parody
Rarely does the Wrap offer a caveat to public polling. After all, these are not polls conducted for a campaign or a party. This new data from Rasmussen, however, is teetering dangerously close to requiring its own caveat. Rasmussen claims that any of the three leading GOPers in the field, including virtual unknown Marlin Stutzman, would lead Democrat Brad Ellsworth by double digits.
Far be it from me to cast aspersions, but it is hard to fathom that former GOP Congressman John Hostettler, who lost to Ellsworth by 24 points in their Congressional battle in 2006, is actually up by nineteen over Ellsworth statewide (46-27). Indeed, if these two gentlemen are the nominees, and Hostettler wins by even half that margin, I will donate $100 to the RNC the very next day.
KY-Sen: Mongiardo Claims Large Primary Lead in Internal Poll
Dan Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lt. Governor, released some internal polling in his hotly contested primary against state Attorney General Jack Conway. Not surprisingly, Mongiardo does quite well in his team's own assessment of the race--the poll says Mongiardo has an 18-point edge (43-25) over Conway. The poll is a little dusty (two weeks old), and was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang on behalf of Mongiardo.
NC-Sen: Surprises on Both Sides In Tar Heel Senate Primaries
Hometown pollsters PPP, which is based in North Carolina, becomes one of the first polling firms (if not the first) to take a look at the primary elections for the U.S. Senate in the Tar Heel State. The results on both sides will be bound to raise eyebrows. On the Democratic side, Elaine Marshall has a 28-12 lead over Cal Cunningham, with Kenneth Lewis back at 5%. Cunningham does pretty well to be in double digits, despite not having the name recognition that comes with statewide office. The real shocker, though, is on the GOP side, where Richard Burr seems to be getting caught up in a little anti-incumbent moodiness, as well. He polls at just 55% in the GOP primary, which is incredibly weak for a guy with virtually no competition (an unknown primary opponent lies at 10%).
OH-Sen: DSCC Takes Playful, And Effective, Stab at Portman
With wealthy car magnate Tom Ganley now out of the running in Ohio, it looks like a lock that former Congressman and Bush official Rob Portman will be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by the retiring George Voinovich. The campaign arm for Senate Democrats, the DSCC, wasted little time making him feel welcome, rolling out an homage to the children's icon Mr. Rogers. The site is called Mister Portman's "Make Believe Neighborhood", which is helpfully located on the corner of K Street and Wall Street. Clever, and a solid punch to the weak spot of Portman, who can only charitably be described as an "insider" candidate. Democrats still have to sort out their own nomination, of course, with Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner leading the way.
PA-Sen: Multiple Revelations In the Sestak-Specter Primary Fight
With recent polling putting him in the lead, Senator Arlen Specter seems to be taking the frontrunner's approach to his competitive Senate primary with Joe Sestak. Team Sestak is pointing out that Specter is ducking debates with Sestak. This is a charge that, no doubt, emanates from Specter's decision to forgo a proposed debate between the two on NBC's flagship Sunday program Meet the Press. In a clever gambit, Team Sestak fired off a press release on Thursday inviting likely GOP nominee Patrick Toomey to debate Sestak in Specter's place, arguing that "Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey's policies are interchangeable. Debating Pat would be just like debating Arlen Specter." Finally, Sestak made some headlines away from the debating front, as well, alleging that the White House tried to get Sestak out of the primary by offering him an alternative in the form of a federal gig. The White House denies the report.
WI-Sen: Ras Says Feingold Leads GOP Field, Under 50%
Last month, it was noted here on the Wrap that it was curious to see Rasmussen polling the Wisconsin Senate race by testing only Tommy Thompson (who seemed unlikely to run) and excluding a few declared Republicans, mostly notably millionaire businessman Terrence Wall. This month, Rasmussen addressed this by polling some of the alternatives to Thompson. Against Wall, Feingold leads by eight (47-39). Against lesser-known Republican Dave Westlake, Feingold stretches the lead to ten points (47-37).
Speaking of Thompson, Rasmussen's recruiting effort via polling appears to be paying them some dividends, as Tommy Thompson this afternoon told The Hill that he was not ruling out a Senate bid.
THE U.S. HOUSE
DE-AL: GOP Suffers Recruiting Failure in GOP-Held Open Seat
It's not a headline that we have seen often in the past month or so, but Republicans suffered a disappointment when wealthy businessman Tony Wedo, who was at the top of their wish list to replace longtime GOP Congressman Mike Castle, decided not to run for Congress. The GOP is having a devil of a time finding a candidate to challenge former Lt. Governor John Carney, who has been the Democratic standard-bearer for months.
FL-05: GOP Retirement Speculation All For Naught
For most of the day, it appeared as if yet another Republican member of Congress was headed for the exits. Speculation ran rampant throughout the day that GOP Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite would announce her retirement at a party function in Hernando, Florida. This was based on Brown-Waite teasing a "major announcement" at the function. Instead, the "major announcement" wound up being her engagement. In terms of the political balance of power, even a Brown-Waite retirement would not have amounted to much--the district is not overwhelmingly Republican, but has enough of a lean (57-43 McCain in 2008) to probably put it out of Democratic reach.
FL-24: Undeclared GOP Candidate Creates Quandary for National GOP
A whale of an interesting dynamic is developing in central Florida, where Republicans have been vexed by their ability to attract opposition to potentially vulnerable freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Early GOP recruits like Karen Diebel have proven to be busts, and the GOP is waiting with anticipation to see if wealthy businessman Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steak House, will get in. The dilemma for the GOP is this: the DCCC has smartly fired off a preemptive strike at Miller, looking at both personal and business controversies. The NRCC is faced with a tough choice: if they do nothing, their dream candidate might be damaged beyond legitimate use by the time he finally declares. If the NRCC begins to buttress Miller, however, it will raise serious allegations that the party is taking sides in a contested primary, a charge that could raise teabagger ire.
PA-12: Leading Dem Demurs From Bid As Special Elex Now Official
With the date of the special election to replace the late Congressman John Murtha now officially set to coincide with the state primary on May 18th, one of the leading Democratic prospects made the surprise call not to run. State Senator John Wozniak, a longtime ally of the late Congressman, decided not to run for Congress. This could mean, of course, that Democratic efforts to recruit Murtha's widow into the race are likely to be successful.
SD-AL: Two Republicans Add Name To Growing GOP Field
Perhaps smelling blood in reddish-tinted territory, a pair of potentially prominent Republicans added their names to the growing roster of GOP talent challenging Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin's re-election bid. State legislator Kristi Noem, who is in the GOP leadership at the state House of Representatives, was joined by Steve Hickey, who was the founding pastor of a church in Sioux Falls. The presumptive front-runner for the GOP, up until this point, was SD Secretary of State Chris Nelson.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Goddard Sees Poll With Landslide GOP Primary
This one is not necessarily a surprise, but it is as one-sided as the data on the GOP gubernatorial primary in California has been. According to Taegan Goddard and his always readable Political Wire, a prominent GOP pollster has looked at the race, and has Meg Whitman staked to an enormous 39 point lead (55-16) over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Whitman has had a lead here for quite some time, but she has been saturating the airwaves during the Olympics, and that might explain the bump in her numbers.
IA-Gov: R2K/KCCI Poll Confirms Culver Troubles With Branstad
Less than a week after the respected Des Moines Register poll showed incumbent Democratic Governor Chet Culver down twenty points to former GOP Governor Terry Branstad in a 2010 clash, Research 2000/KCCI more or less confirmed the gap. Branstad enjoys a sixteen-point edge over Culver (54-38), according to the poll. If there is a bright spot for Culver, it could come if Branstad gets knocked off in the GOP primary. The other three leading GOPers (Bob Vander Platts, Chris Rants, and Rod Roberts) all trail the incumbent, with margins ranging from 3-22 points.
OR-Gov: Dems Hold Narrow Leads, According to New Ras Poll
Rasmussen, as we expected a few days ago when they dropped an Oregon Senate poll, has now followed up with a gubernatorial survey. They find that the Democratic candidates, former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Sec. of State Bill Bradbury, lead any prospective Republicans. Surprisingly, former state legislator John Lim (who got blasted in a statewide bid against Ron Wyden a dozen years ago) runs the strongest, only trailing Kitzhaber and Bradbury by 2-3 points. Former NBA basketball player Chris Dudley also polls fairly well, trailing Bradbury by three and Kitzhaber by six. Rasmussen, curiously, did not poll either primary, though both could prove to be competitive.
VT-Gov: Pollina Bid Could Be Dem Spoiler, According to R2K Poll
According to new numbers from Research 2000 and WCAX-TV, Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie holds his own when paired against leading Democrats for the office of Governor. Only Democratic Secretary of State Deb Markowitz leads Dubie, and even then, she only leads the Republican by two points (43-41). Dubie leads the other Democratic hopefuls by margins ranging from 5-18 points. What's more--the Republican actually moves into the lead when perennial Progressive Party candidate Anthony Pollina is thrown into the mix. With Pollina in the calculations, Dubie moves in front with 37% of the vote, with Markowitz down to 35% of the vote and Pollina at 11%.