It appears that the toughest job isn't going to be in the Senate in terms of getting a bill through. It's actually going to be through the House. Nancy Pelosi has got a very tough job ahead of her.
In fact, after reading this article, I'm convinced that Healthcare Reform may be impossible. With or without a public option.
NYTimes on Pelosi's Challenge
Now, this is why despite the polls the public option isn't going to make it very far. This is something I've been chiming along since the recent uproar.
In pure substantive terms, the public option that's most likeliest is going to be one in which the HHS would negotiate rates. That is simply going to cause more people to treat it as a dumping ground for the insurance companies, and with that, there will be higher premiums than even private insurance. In other words, it's a public option in name only. The medicare option (which would be the best) isn't going to happen because of Rural senators and their constituents (read: Hospitals) getting screwed over in terms of rates.
That said, politically, it's possible we may get no bill at all. These are the folks Speaker Pelosi needs to get on healthcare. They were from districts that McCain solidly won and they didn't vote for healthcare last time.
But persuading Democrats who are already on record as opposing a health overhaul to do a turnabout will not be an easy task, especially during a midterm election year in which Democrats’ political prospects already look bleak. Of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House measure, 31, including Mr. Kratovil, represent districts that were won in 2008 by Senator John McCain of Arizona, Mr. Obama’s Republican rival. Fourteen, including Mr. Kratovil, are freshmen, who are generally considered more politically vulnerable than more senior lawmakers.
"The concern among Democrats right now is that there are more yes votes reconsidering than no votes," said David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "My sense is that for Democrats to pass this bill, they would have to convince several members who are already in serious jeopardy, even after voting no on the first health care bill, to put passage of the bill ahead of their own chances of being competitive in the fall."
But politicians do not want to be martyrs. They want to hold onto their seats.
The whole article was a disheartening look at democrats in the house who are needed to pass the bill. Most of these folks want to do incremental steps even though THEY WILL NOT WORK. Look, Pelosi is one of most able legislators in history but working through this minefield may be the toughest challenge of her career. If she manages to get Obama's proposal through sans public option through the House, She WILL be the greatest Speaker in History. Bar none. That said, the enormity of her challenge cannot go unsaid, it's with this, that I'm super hesitant about the likelihood of passing ANY Comprehensive bill.
Conservadems MUST understand that the ONLY way out of this mess is THROUGH IT. I hope they learn it in time.