I wish to thank the Faculty of The Blogistan Polytechnic Institute for scheduling this student lecture today. As a student I forgot to put Morning Feature in the title.
Again, my subject is identifying Fred. The longer form is Identifying Fred or John or Jane. We will look at Fred in an actual election illustrating one technique with a couple of exercises using Hershey's Kisses
Fred is our archetype for the 50% plus 1 voter. We used the Gallup Poll of likely voters and other demographics to define Fred.
I am going to explore one problem, turning Federal Voters into Super Voters using one low turnout election as a model. More below the fold.
Back on Monday February 15th Crissie talked about Federal Voters and Super Voters.
"And our state committeeman - who was wearing a bright orange sweatshirt and knew all about the Recommend button on DailyKos, although those two facts are probably unrelated - was eager to explain a Precinct Leader is supposed to do, specifically:
Get more Democrats to vote, and get them to vote on each race and issue.
It seems that many Democrats here in Florida, and probably many in your state as well, only vote in presidential elections and only vote for a presidential candidate. The Florida Democratic Party has begun calling
them Federal Voters, and to turn our state bluer from the local level on up, we need to get turn more of those Federal Voters into Super Voters: Democrats who vote in every election and in every race on the ballot. Our Precinct Leaders use an online database to identify Super Voters in their precincts and recruit them to help reach out to Federal Voters and others in the precinct. As several people said in the meeting: "Getting Democrats to vote is our job as party activists. The better we do that, the more our candidates can focus on winning over Independents."
We should start with a new name for the 50% plus one voter in a low turnout election. I choose John or Jane. John from every "Tom, Dick and Harry is called John."
Jane from Dick and Janereaders.
Classroom examples are nice. We can use history to ground our speculations and I choose the June 13th 2009 Virginia State Delegate 46th District election for my sample of one. Often called a typical example, I remember one speaker redefining it as the best example I could find.
I'll start by identifying Fred or the 50% plus one voter. The vote was Herring 1344 Murray 1328 write ins 9. The 1340 voter was the 50% voter, so Herring had 50% plus 4.
Exercise One - 50% of what
When you talk about 50% plus one you also need to talk about 50% of what. There are a endless possibilities. We will consider Population, Eligible to Register, Registered Voters, Federal Voters, Super Voters.
Population
The population of your election district is somewhat of a mystery. You can usually find it by looking for redistricting studies. It is based on census numbers which are published by neighborhoods. These Neighborhoods are combined in redistricting into precincts and then into districts. Virginia delegate districts have a target population of 71,785 individuals. This includes individuals eligible to register to vote and noncitizens, votes in another district, 18th birthday after the next general election, mentally incompetent, and convicted felons. All are counted in the population but all are not in the eligible to register population. To illustrate this put 100 Hershey's Kisses in a bowl, (about 3 1/3 cups) representing the district population.
Eligible to Register
Noncitizens, votes in another district, 18th birthday after the next general election, mentally incompetent, convicted felons are counted in the population but not the eligible to register population. To illustrate this go to our bowl of Hershey's Kisses and then take out - 6 for noncitizens, 17 for under 18 years of age, and one for felons.
The eligible to register number is paired with the registered voters to determine how much effort you should place on registration. Registration is always a full time job done with petition signing and door knocking. If any one replies that they are not registered and they match your criteria you give them a registration form to mail in to the registrar and take their name and address for follow up. The Virginia 46th district has about 50000 citizens who could be voters. Seventy six Hershey's Kisses are in the Bowl.
Registered Voters
This is an easy number that comes from the registrars office. The Virginia 46th district has 45891 registered voters or about 91% percent of the eligible voters are registered. Take out another 12 Hershey's Kisses.
Federal Voters
This is the group that includes Fred. One of the survey questions that is used to weigh the survey report with past experience is Fred's vote in the last presidential election. The eight district has a 76% turnout in 2008 so the Federal Voters number about 35,000 with a 71% Obama, and 27% McCane or were these Obama only voters. If we go back to 2006 when Obama turnout was not present we get a 56% turnout or 26000 Federal Voters. Take out another 15 Kisses for Obama election voters and 13 more for Federal Voters.
Super Voters
You need to pay for the voting records by voter to get the records and then scan them for the voters in all elections. A short cut I will use is just say that it is less then the about 2600 voters in the Herring Murray special election. If you use an analysis that allows skips you will get a higher number of super voters. The super voters are about 7% of the voters. That leaves 90% of the federal voters to convert to super voters. Take out another 32 Kisses. That leaves 4 Kisses, two of ours and two of theirs.
You have completed exercise one.
Exercise Two - Identifying Democrats
In exercise one we looked at the population without dividing it into Democrats or potential Democrats and the misinformed. We start exercise two with the whole population, 100 Kisses in the big bowl. We then take out 24 kisses for those who are not eligible to register and 12 more for those who are eligible but have not registered.
Registered Voters - Democrats
If you are in a State that registers by party, you can make the divide here. Split your bowl of registered voters into three bowls and divide your 64 Kisses accordingly. If not, just go on to the next step.
Federal Voters - Democrats
In 2008 the eight district has a 76% turnout so the Federal Voters number about 35,000 with a 71% Obama, and 27% McCane or were these Obama only voters. The Federal voters split 66% Democratic 30% Republican in 2006.
If you make the divide here you take the 51 Kisses and put 24 in the Democratic Bowl and 12 in the Republican Bowl and 15 Obama voters in the independent bowl. Oops - Fred just went into the independent bowl. If you used State registration numbers adjust the Kisses to the 46th district numbers.
Super Voters - Democrats
There were 2600 voters in the Herring Murray special election. So we take 22 Kisses out of the Democratic Bowl and just to maintain symmetry 10 Kisses from the Republican Bowl. We then have 2 Kisses in the Democratic Bowl and 2 Kisses in the Republican Bowl.
You have completed exercise two.
Identifying John or Jane.
Fred didn't vote in our low turnout election but we still need to identify the winning or 50% plus one voter. Call this voter John or Jane.
I'll use City of Alexandria statistics.
The Alexandria population trends older, with a median age of around 46 and more woman then men, so we will use Jane as the 50% plus one voter. If you looked at all four you would get two men and two women. Jane is a college graduate in technical or professional services. Her annual income is about $80,000. Jane is twice as likely to live in a rental apartment as a condo or single family residence. Again, if you look at the four you would find two rentals, one condo and one single family residence.
The easiest way to get this information in your district is to collect it during your precinct voter canvass. Oh yes, you should be doing a precinct voter canvass and not limiting it to a voter profile that fits some other precinct.
We move the game up a notch when we identify John or Jane at the precinct level. This is the core of the 50 state strategy. The Democratic Party has been harvesting crops planted by earlier generations. The party has been relying on individual campaigns for its blood instead of providing a stepping stone path from a local to state to national elective office. The bench is now bare. Returning to precinct level is an excellent way to return the nation to Democrats and democratic ideals.
Now - On to knocking on doors and meeting Fred or John or Jane. They will be good Democrats if you ask them.