With Obama’s recent announcement of an influx of 30,000 troops into Afghanistan, the occupation of Iraq seems to have fallen off the radar despite the looming 7th anniversary of the US invasion coming up on March 19th. However with elections coming up on March 7th, rising sectarian tensions, conflict over oil, and a population devastated by unemployment and decimated infrastructure, we feel it’s important for anti-war activists to know what’s going on in the country.
There are currently about 100,000 U.S. military personnel in Iraq, in addition to 120,000 contractors - with no clear exit plan in sight on when these forces will be leaving the region. In a recent memo from Defense Secretary Robert Gates to U.S. Central Command chief General David Petraeus, Gates recommends changing the official name of the Iraq war from "Operation Iraqi Freedom" to "Operation New Dawn". Along with the name change is the speculated plan to begin withdrawing troops from the country this spring and summer, leaving about 48,000 troops and 75,000 contractors by September. Although Obama has said in speeches that he plans on bringing all US troops home from Iraq by 2011, and this is the agreement stipulated in the Status of Forces Agreement, there is currently no plan to do so.
This proposed September date that launches "Operation New Dawn" has been a point of contention between Maliki's government, the Iraqi people, and the US for some years now. Consequently the Iraqi Parliament ratified its Status of Forces Agreement with the US last year, with a provision calling for a national referendum on the occupation that could have pushed forward the date of withdrawal to this summer. However, the August 2009 date for the referendum passed by without the vote being held, due to pressure on Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s government from American diplomats.
In an extensive March 2009 ABC/BBC poll, a plurality of Iraqis expressed that they wanted US troops to withdraw before the September 2011 date specified in the Status of Forces Agreement. By allowing the referendum date to pass without even mentioning it, Maliki’s pro-occupation, US backed authoritarian government showed that it cares little about Iraqi public opinion.
Even the September 2011 partial withdrawal date is subject to the facts on the ground, and the facts suggest an extremely unstable situation. Despite fears of a repeat of the 2005 Sunni voting boycott after hundreds of Sunni candidates were banned from the election, it appears that such an event will not materialize and there is likely to be participation from a wide spectrum of the Iraqi population. However, a recent poll by the pro-government Iraqi National Media Centre indicated that 63% of registered voters will go to the polls compared to 79% in 2005. This study also reported that roughly a sixth of those interviewed said they had no faith in the candidates, with only 10% saying they trustedthem.
On top of this widespread distrust in government, the last few weeks have been marked by a spike in violence with 352 people killed in February, of which 211 were civilians and 141 were security forces. In addition, there have been reports of widespread bribing of voters - especially in the rural southern regions where religious parties have been giving 100 dinars to families who promise to vote for them. This practice is a new development in Iraq, which has a 50% unemployment rate with about 4 million people displaced. Nearly a quarter of the population lives under the official poverty line of $2.20 a day, and there is a massive shortfall of two million houses, with 13% of urban housing occupied by 10 or more people.
At this point, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the elections. It is likely that Maliki’s coalition will win a plurality of the votes, but it is also unlikely that he will be able to form a majority government without compromising with one of the Shiite religious or Kurdish ethnic parties. Another political problem is the statement issued by Iraqi Defense Minister Adbel Qader Jassim raising doubts about the readiness of their army to maintain security without assistance from U.S. troops, who play major roles in providing logistical support, trainings, and intelligence.
Despite official rhetoric about ending the war in Iraq, even the rosiest scenario would leave tens of thousands of U.S. troops in the country, a massive new embassy compound, and American oil companies operating on Iraqi soil. If a new government fails to form, or cannot get a handle on the violence in the country, it is likely that the U.S. military will renege on its modest withdrawal plans. Even if a government forms quickly, it is very likely that a new Status of Forces Agreement will be reached that keeps thousands of American troops and contractors in the country for years.
Article written by Jon Berger, Washington Peace Center Intern and member of College Park SdS
http://www.cpsds.org