Rasmussen, presumably on accident, releases a poll that shows exceptionally good news for Democrats, but then returns to form in the Granite State. The DCCC unveils a target list of sorts in the form of their first round of "Red to Blue" nominees. The electoral picture in Western PA gets a lot clearer today, while the electoral picture in the Lone Star State gets a little less so.
Those are just a few of the headlines on this, the Wednesday night edition of the Wrap.....
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: Poll Confirms Extremely Dire PPP Senate Poll For Crist
In case the campaign of Florida Governor (and Senate aspirant) Charlie Crist was eager to dismiss yesterday's brutal PPP poll as an isolated outlier, they might have some trouble. Tonight, a new poll by Insider Advantage/Florida Times-Union backs PPP up, showing Marco Rubio with a 60-26 lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican Senate Primary.
IL-Sen: Rasmussen Gives Giannoulias Lead (....no, really!)
This one defies easy explanation. Just a day after Rasmussen became the first pollster to give downstate Republican legislator Bill Brady a lead over incumbent Governor Pat Quinn (and a ten-pointer, at that!), they turn around and say that Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias has gained nine points on GOP nominee Mark Kirk. Whereas Ras once had Kirk staked to a six-point edge, it is now a three-point lead for Giannoulias (44-41).
NV-Sen: GOP Cries Foul Over Tea Party Candidate
This was somewhat predictable: one of the GOP candidates vying for the right to battle Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is claiming that the newly qualified "Tea Party" candidate is a fraud. Jon Ashjian has taken a few shots from GOPers who are convinced that (as polls somewhat confirm) his entrance into the race will split the protest vote and allow Harry Reid a greater chance of victory. Danny Tarkanian, who is one of the leading GOPers in the Senate field, argues that "Nobody in the Tea Party knows who he is. He didn't know any of the principles of the Tea Party."
NH-Sen: GOP Dilemma--Is The Darling of Their Base Unelectable?
Rasmussen, while showing pretty soft numbers for Democrat Paul Hodes in their latest poll in the Granite State, nevertheless release some numbers that are not quite what the conservative pollster might hope for. It is not a secret that the right flank would love to see former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne as the GOP nominee to take on Hodes in this open-seat Senate contest. But Lamontagne, according to Ras, is the only Republican that Hodes currently leads (42-38). Meanwhile, both Kelly Ayotte and businessman Bill Binnie have sizeable leads over Hodes, according to the GOP-friendly pollster.
TX-Sen: What Becomes of The Electorally Brokenhearted?
Fresh off of a disappointing thumping at the hands of Rick Perry (which included his topping 50% of the vote and avoiding a potentially expensive runoff), Kay Bailey Hutchison is apparently contemplating her next move. Remember that KBH had originally promised to resign her Senate seat in advance of her gubernatorial primary bid. Then, in the latter half of 2009, she relented, saying pressing Senate business would keep her in the chamber until after the primary. Even then, she implied her resignation would still take place. That now appears less certain, which leaves several potential Senate candidates (Republican Michael Williams and Democrat John Sharp come to mind) very much in limbo.
WA-Sen: Murray Has Leads Over All Announced GOP Challengers
Rasmussen heads back into Washington this week, to check on the status of Senator Patty Murray and to continue their recruitment of two-time GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Ras, as they did a few weeks back, shows the Democratic incumbent easily defeating the current crop of Republicans who have announced Senate bids, with margins ranging from 11-19 points. But Ras takes great pains to point out that if Rossi would enter the fray, he would start the race with a three-point edge (49-46) over Murray.
THE U.S. HOUSE
GA-07: Reed To Stay On Sidelines For 2010 Elections
Ralph Reed, who when he headed the Christian Coalition in the 1990s was arguably one of the most influential conservatives in America, is not going to make a political comeback in the battle to replace outgoing GOP Rep. John Linder. Insider politics are apparently a stronger suit for Reed than electoral politics--his one foray into that realm was a double digit defeat at the hands of Casey Cagle in 2006 in a statewide bid for Lt. Governor.
PA-12: Democrats Avoid Divisive Battle In Murtha Seat
A few days after some comments by one of her staffers made it seem inevitable that she was intending to fight until the bitter end, former Democratic state treasurer Barbara Hafer pulled the plug on her bid for Congress in the seat occupied until last month by Congressman John Murtha. This almost certainly ensures that former Murtha staffer Mark Critz will be the Democratic nominee both in the May 18th special election and the November general election.
VA-11: GOP Candidate Claims Poll That Shows Him Winning Rematch
When Republican businessman Keith Fimian challenged Democrat Gerry Connolly for the open seat in NoVa's 11th district in 2008, he wound up being on the losing end of a double-digit verdict (55-43). This time around, according to an internal poll by McLaughlin Associates for the GOP candidate, he claims he is in the lead. The poll (which comes with the customary caveats about internal polling) shows Fimian up on Connolly by five points (40-35).
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC Unveils The Target List
In a sign that the Democrats will be playing at least some offense in this election cycle, they named a baker's dozen of candidates to their inaugural edition of this cycle's Red to Blue list. Eleven of the races are in GOP-held seats, and a pair of Democrats running in challenging open seats were also added to the list. The districts being challenged are: CA-03 (Ami Bera), CA-45 (Steve Pougnet), DE-AL (John Carney), FL-12 (Lori Edwards), IL-10 (Dan Seals), KS-04 (Raj Goyle), NE-02 (Tom White), OH-12 (Paula Brooks), PA-07 (Bryan Lentz), PA-15 (John Callahan), SC-02 (Rob Miller), TN-08 (Roy Herron), and WA-08 (Suzan DelBene).
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
MA-Gov: Ras Polls Bay State, Finds Patrick Still Leading
Chalk this one up as Rasmussen being Rasmussen. While they peg the general dynamic of the race as confirmed by other pollsters, they are considerably more optimistic for the GOP. They have GOP businessman Charlie Baker within three points of incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick (35-32), while Dem-turned-Indie Tim Cahill languishes at 19%. Ras confirms one trend, though: Christy Mihos is a far less electable choice for the GOP. With him in the race, Cahill moves into second (35-30), with Mihos back in the teens.
MI-Gov: Non-Ras Poll Looks At Wide-Open Gubernatorial Primaries
Amazingly, it appears there are pollsters working in America OTHER than the crew at Rasmussen. Local pollsters Denno-Noor went into the field in Michigan to look at the crowded primaries for Governor. On the GOP side, they find conservative Congressman Peter Hoekstra out in front with 28% of the vote. A surprise second was businessman Rick Snyder, who parlayed a rather endearing TV ad campaign into 18% of the vote and sole possession of 2nd place. The disappointment for the GOP has to be Attorney General Mike Cox. The one time presumed nominee trails badly, running a distant third with only 12% of the vote. On the Democratic side, it is wide open: a whopping 56% of the field is undecided. State House Speaker Andy Dillon (13%) and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (11%) are the only Dems in double digits. Interestingly, the pollsters also look at a potential 2012 Clash of the Titans between Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow and former GOP Governor John Engler. They have it as a tossup, with Engler up by a single point (42-41).
SC-Gov: Ras Hits Primary Circuit and Sees Wide Open Races
Rasmussen departs from their normal GOP-friendly general election polling and puts together a poll on the multi-candidate primaries on either side of the coin in the battle to replace the disgraced Mark Sanford as Governor of South Carolina. On the Democratic side, it is a total mishmash, with four candidates ranging from 12-16% of the vote. The co-leaders (if you can call them that) are state Education head Jim Rex and state Senator Vincent Sheheen at 16%. Meanwhile, the GOP side is only slightly less congested, with state Attorney General Henry McMaster at 21%, followed closely by Lt. Gov Andre Bauer at 17% and Congressman Gresham Barrett at 14%.
WI-Gov: Walker's New Ad Missing Key Element
It's early in the campaign cycle, but this is my favorite "whoopsie!" moment of the campaign thus far. Scott Walker, the Milwaukee County Executive and likely frontrunner for the GOP nomination for Governor, is on the air with a new biographical/introductory ad where he talks about his own sense of fiscal discipline, right down to making his own lunches. Charming to be sure, but his ad omits one key factoid: the small detail that he is running for Governor. Walker's ad-man might want to mix that in somewhere during the next ad blitz.