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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/8/2010-3/11/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):

PRESIDENT OBAMA54 (53)42 (43)+2
PELOSI:35 (36)56 (56)-1
REID:26 (27)67 (66)-2
McCONNELL:20 (21)63 (63)-1
BOEHNER:19 (19)63 (62)-1
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:38 (37)60 (61)+2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:23 (24)68 (67)-2
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:40 (39)56 (57)+2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:29 (30)67 (66)-2

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Since this is now the second week since the big transition from a universe of all adults to a universe of registered voters, we can finally draw some legitimate comparisons.

Unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot of volatility to explore. The Democrats (with the exception of the leadership) gain a couple of points in net favorability this week, while the GOPers in question lose a point or two.

That said, some other key indicators don't show much change. The margin for Democrats on the generic ballot variation remains steady at a three-point edge for the Democrats (46-43, up a point for both sides). Meanwhile, the right track-wrong track indicator (critical for the incumbent party) only improved incrementally, from 38/60 to 39/60.

Another key stat, one we have been tracking for a long time, is voter intensity. Those numbers change only a little this week, and in the Republicans' direction. The GOP now has a 51/21 split between those who seem likely to vote versus those who appear unlikely to vote, a net improvement of two points for the Red team (49/21 last week). Meanwhile, the net Democratic voter intensity slacked off by a point (40/32, from 39/30 last week).

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 07:46 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I see the GOP numbers, small as they are...... (5+ / 0-)

    continue to diminish. Boner 1, Turtleman 1.

    And yet the GOP has already proclaimed victory in November. Guess it's time to get to work and show them how wrong they are.

    Again. And this time I suggest driving the wooden stake in even harder.....

    it tastes like burning...

    by eastvan on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 07:50:03 PM PST

  •  Obama's "Job Approval" is just 48.6%. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, divineorder, DickMacgurn

    That's a 6% difference vs. the vague "favorable" rating. All the others polls seem to use "Job Approval".

    Be interesting to see if Obama goes above 50% Job Approval if the Democrats health care bill passes. As much as I'd hate to admit it, if health care bill passes, David Brooks might be right and voters would view Obama more favorably for being "tenacious" on achieving his political goals.

  •  Ahem ...the closer that we get to passing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Eryk

    HCR and student loan reform and also once it's done, the better his ratings will be.

    Impeach Obama- some dkos clown (Jan 05, 2010)

    by soms on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 07:55:45 PM PST

    •  Actualy, expectthe numbers to go down... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, soms

      ...for awhile until the reforms are actually passed in toto.  Voters hate the process...

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:07:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pass HIR and watch the numbers move. (5+ / 0-)

    After what a long ride it's been with HIR, particularly after it's been proclaimed dead several times, Democrats and President Obama will significant gains if they get it passed and signed. Everyone loves a winner.

    Combat troops pulling out of Iraq at the end of summer will be a big boost as well. Strange coincidence that it's happening right before the elections, hm?

  •  I'm linking to this: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    divineorder -health-care-initiative-is-a-failure.html

    They were hammering this point today on Morning Snowjob & Today show.  But I thought that Pat Caddell was a huge Fox News Contributor asshat. They kept going on and on about the blood bath Dems will face.

  •  I actually find these numbers hard to believe (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    after what happened with Massa this week. I can understand Obama's slight increase. Maybe after learning about Massa's bizarre behavior, voters are happy with how anger Rahm got with him. :) Cant understand the increase for the Dems, though, but I guess I wont complain.

    •  The dems kicked him out... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Massa blamed the Dems.... it's all good!

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:15:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The increase for the Dems, I think, is due (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to perceptions that, at times of late, they have shown some signs of spinal regeneration. If they grow a whole cord, who knows what could happen. I don't think the Massamessa had much effect on the overall standings.

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:35:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  this weeks numbers look very similar to last week (0+ / 0-)

    As such there are MASSIVE swings in age related support of the President, Republican party, and the congressional generic ballot when comparing registered voters to adult. The small swings shown in the overall results hide the fact that they are the results of huge swings to and away from both Obama and the Republicans by different age groups.

    Further, it appears as though some of the unregistered (Republican) voters are extremely interested and perhaps more likely to vote than typical unregistered voters. I think we might be heading for difficulty here if we assume that "registered voters" is a good first cut off for likely voters.

    I wrote a diary on this last week.

    Using last weeks numbers....

    Among those 18-29 and 45-59 Obama loses significant support (30-40 points) as one moves from adults to registered voters. This is balanced off by a 30 point gain in support for Obama among those 30-45 for a net change of only about 5 points.

    The Republican party is the inverse with the 18-29 and 30-44 showing a 20ish point gain for the Republicans and the 30-45 age group showing a whopping 45 point loss in Republican support!

    When considering voter intensity one notes that as expected among those 18-29 and 45-59 those registered are more claiming they are more likely to vote than adults. However, the odd thing is that among those 30-44 ADULTS are self-reporting as more likely to vote than registered voters.

    What we appear to have is a substantial number of unregistered 30-44 year old Republicans who claim they are going to vote but aren't registered.

    See the diary for the figures as of last week. Eyeballing the numbers out this week, they look very similar.

  •  What the f___ happened (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    with the GOP popularity in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first in 2010? What made them on such a positive streak, and then plunged them into a free fall? Seems to me they're being just as evil as ever, no more or less.

    I'm in the pro-Obama wing of the Democratic Party.

    by doc2 on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:35:41 PM PST

  •  This (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is a wonderful thing - like it.

    but why don't I ever get polled for these polls? Wah.

    Change is inevitable - Growth is optional

    by oregongal on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:46:35 PM PST

  •  God I am sick of this. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    soms, BrighidG, AZ RedWingsFan

    Obama approval:

    NORTHEAST 75 21 4
    SOUTH 36 61 3
    MIDWEST 56 40 4
    WEST 58 38 4
    REST OF USA 62 33 5

    Still a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest

    by Mike S on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 08:53:09 PM PST

  •  Registered voters vs. People at large. (0+ / 0-)

    Since following the Kos polls from the beginning, I have used them in daily arguments in support of progressive change.  If what you say is true (that they have been of the people at large)  Why not continue that?

    I am not a pollster, and have no axe to grind.  It just seems to me that if you switch to just registered voters as your universe, you leave out a lot of people.

    More Importantly, You disregard those who could really help us.  The unregistered.

    Maybe I am dense, But those who agree with us and are not registered should be sought out. At least we should know they are there.

    This is not a complaint.  Just a Question.

  •  I've said this before... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...but it bears repeating from time to time.

    First, Obama's overall approval rating tracks very well with the 2008 popular vote.

    Research 2000:  54% favorable, 42% unfavorable.
    2008 Popular Vote:  Obama 52.87%, McCain 45.60%.

    I wouldn't think many of the 46% who voted for McCain approve of Obama now.  So, if the liberal base is abandoning the president, I wonder who is propping up his numbers?

    Second, if we look at the regional breakdowns, Obama has actually gained ground among McCain voters in the northeast, while losing ground among his own supporters in the south.  I have a hard time believing either of those findings, but the numbers are what they are.

    2008 Vote:  Obama 59.44%, McCain 39.14%.
    Research 2000:  75% favorable, 21% unfavorable.

    2008 Vote:  Obama 52.98%, McCain 45.43%.
    Research 2000:  56% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

    2008 Vote:  Obama 55.94%, McCain 41.86%.
    Research 2000:  58% favorable, 38% unfavorable.

    2008 Vote:  Obama 46.14%, McCain 52.77%.
    Research 2000:  36% favorable, 61% unfavorable.

    2008 Vote:  Obama 55.95%, McCain 42.33%.
    Research 2000:  62% favorable, 33% unfavorable.

    As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

    by KTinOhio on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 09:32:24 PM PST

  •  Wait .... (0+ / 0-)

    This isn't what Fox says.  Huh?

    Never argue with idiots. They'll just drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.

    by reality77 on Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 10:24:51 PM PST

  •  voter intensity will shoot up when HCR is signed (0+ / 0-)

    Republican brand of HOPE: "I HOPE HE FAILS"... Country First Anyone?

    by DFutureIsNow on Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 07:14:21 AM PST

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