The new NBC/WSJ poll is out and it's not good news for incumbents. In fact, 51% of respondents want someone new in Congress, whereas 38% would vote to re-elect their representative. And by 2:1, respondents favor split government rather than same party control. But it's not because of health reform, or at least not just because of health reform.
If their representative votes with Republicans to defeat the bill, 34 percent say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 31 percent say they would be more likely to vote for the member, and 34 percent say it makes no difference.
But if their member of Congress votes with Democrats to pass the legislation, 36 percent say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 28 percent say they would be more likely to vote for the member, and 34 percent say it makes no difference.
Translation: "There is no easy place right now in the health care debate," says [Bill] McInturff, the GOP pollster.
The public is not in a good mood. Right direction/wrong track is 33/59, though it was far worse in October '08 (right 12/wrong 78). On health care, Obama gats a 41/57 approve/disapprove... and Republicans in Congress get a 35/59. But there's a split decision on this bill with 46% of the public saying "pass the plan and make changes" and 45% saying "leave health care the way it is, no changes". That is just about where it was in 12/09 (41/44); there's no freight train against passage.
Peter Hart makes the case that the Dems need to rally around their President on health reform.
Democratic voters are strongly in favor of the legislation being pushed by President Barack Obama, particularly constituencies such as blacks, Latinos and self-described liberals. Those groups mobilized in 2008 to help elect Mr. Obama but now are far less enthusiastic about voting in this year's mid-term elections than are core Republicans.
The survey found a 21-point enthusiasm gap between the parties -- with 67% of Republicans saying they are very interested in the November elections, compared to just 46% of Democrats.
"If the Democrats are going to close that gap, they've got to get their people excited. And I don't see how you get those people if you vote no" on the party's health legislation, said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
"I don't think it's about winning the middle. It's really about alienating the base," Mr. Hart said of Democratic lawmakers' calculations about the upcoming health vote.
Overall on health care, the WSJ says:
On health care, the results underscore the argument from liberal activists that defeating the bill will dissuade the party base from voting in November. The Journal/NBC survey shows that the majority of African-Americans and majority of liberal Democrats, as well as a plurality of Latinos, would be less likely to vote for their representative in Congress if he or she voted against the health-care plan.
Oh, by the way, don't count on tea parties to usher in a new era of third party control.
From what you know about the so-called Tea Party Movement, would it be a third party that you would be interested in voting for this year for Congress?
Obama's job approval is at 48 (was 50 in Jan.) but lest we think Obama has lost his mojo, let's look at favorables minus unfavs:
Democrats have ground to make up. While they lead the 2010 generic ballot by 3 points (by 45-42, the respondents want a D congress in November), Republicans are doing better on issues.
Yet in perhaps the most striking findings in the survey, Republicans have made up considerable ground on the issues. Asked which party better handles health care, Democrats enjoy a nine-point advantage over Republicans (37-28 percent). That’s down from the 31-point edge they held in July 2008.
The parties are tied on the economy (31-31 percent), after Democrats led on this question since 2004. And Republicans lead on reducing the federal deficit (by six points), on taxes (11 points) and dealing with the war on terrorism (14 points).
For those thinking that D prospects have hit bottom and R outlook has peaked (and there is that POV out there), health reform may indeed by the pivot. To reiterate:
Democratic respondents are overwhelmingly supportive of Obama’s health care plan -- they think it’s a good idea by a 64-16 percent margin, according to the poll. Hart argues that such strong support from the base will ultimately make a "yes" vote an easier sell for Democrats who are on the fence.
The key concern for these lawmakers isn’t losing some voters in the middle, he says. "It is alienating the base."
"From my point of view, it might look like a difficult vote," Hart says. "But they don’t have a choice. The repercussions they will suffer will be huge."
But McInturff contends that — because the poll shows majorities of independents, seniors and whites are wary of the overhaul plan — the right vote for Democrats isn’t all that clear.
Democrats are going to need to win with Democratic voters if they want to be in the game. There's no other way to play.