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Apologies for the lack of a weekend edition. Unfortunately, your intrepid Wrap author got waylaid by a track meet that ran two-plus hours behind schedule, and dead batteries on both the mobile phone and the laptop. It was the perfect storm of suck, I can assure you.

Fortunately, it allows for a heaping helping of political entertainment on this, the Monday edition of the Wrap, with a shiny new feature. At the behest of many, I have elected to place the Ras-a-Palooza in their own little pen at the close of the Wrap. After all, there's only so many ways to say "The GOP looks amazingly good in this new Rasmussen poll"...

THE U.S. SENATE

NV-Sen: Tea Party Candidacy Challenged In Court
When Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian launched into the Nevada Senate race, several Republicans (including one candidate--Dany Tarkanian) bitterly noted that they thought he was a plant, presumably part of a nefarious Democratic plot. Alas, it is Ashjian's recent status as a Republican that might wind up unraveling his Senate candidacy. Another candidate in the field, Tim Fasano of the right-wing IAP, filed the challenge in Carson City earlier today. His argument is that when Ashjian filed as a member of the Tea Party, he was still a registered Republican. Interestingly, Jon Ralston is noting that an affiliate of the National Tea Party movement, Debbie Landis, may join Fasano's complaint.

NY-Sen: Only Pataki Can Save GOP Against Gillibrand
Siena College is out with their latest poll of the Empire State (they poll here on around a monthly basis). They continue to poll a potential Senate matchup between incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and former Governor George Pataki, even though Pataki has not made any serious overtures towards making the bid. For what it's worth (PDF file), they have Pataki up six (45-39). Against candidates that are actually in the field, Gillibrand is up on Bruce Blakeman by a two-to-one margin (48-24). On the actual candidate front, it now appears that one candidate recruitment rumor in New York is about to come across--former Bush advisor Dan Senor (aka Mr. Campbell Brown) is pretty much a go, according to the NY Daily News.

THE U.S. HOUSE

CA-19: Tight GOP Primary in Radanovich Seat
In the battle to replace retiring GOP Rep. George Radanovich, it is a tight battle on the GOP side, while undecided has a big lead on the Democratic side. So says a new poll from SurveyUSA, which shows Radanovich's endorsed candidate, state legislator Jeff Denham, with a lead of a single point (26-25) over former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson. Congressman Richard Pombo, who used to rep the neighboring 11th district, lags well behind at 13%. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the majority of the voters are still undecided on their choice, with John Estrada pacing the field with 24% of the vote.

GA-09: Special Election Date Now Set For Deal Seat
After GOP Congressman Nathan Deal beat a fast exit out of town after last night's health care vote (he resigned shortly after the vote), Georgia's GOP Governor (Sonny Perdue) quickly set a date for the election to select his replacement. The special election to replace Deal will be on April 27th. Deal's resignation was not abrupt, he had announced it a few weeks back, choosing to focus on his campaign for Governor, where he is challenging state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and Sec. of State Karen Handel.

MA-10: Is A Three-Way Contest Pending On the Cape?
Here is an interesting pickup from James L. at Swing State: former Democratic state legislator Maryanne Lewis has left the Democratic Party, perhaps as a prelude to running for Congress in the open 10th district as an Independent. According to James L, this one could truly cut either way. Being a former Dem could siphon off Dem votes, but Lewis had a rep as a conservative, which means she could drain conservative votes from the potential GOP nominee. Speaking of the GOP in the 10th, one longstanding rumor got confirmed, as former state treasurer Joe Malone made it official that he will be a candidate for Congress.

SD-AL: Hildebrand Elects To Pass On Herseth-Sandlin Primary
Less than a week after he made overtures towards engaging fourth-term conservative Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, former Obama top campaign official Steve Hildebrand decided to forgo a primary challenge to the Congresswoman. This comes despite Herseth-Sandlin following through on a pledge not to vote for the health care reform package last night. Hildebrand's rationale? It passed by enough votes that Democrats might have "released" her and let her vote strategically against the bill.

VT-AL: Welch Draws GOP Opposition For 2010 Election
Sophomore Democratic Congressman Peter Welch will experience something in his second bid for re-election that he did not have to deal with in the first go-round: an actual Republican opponent. His name is Keith Stern, and he has a run for Congress in his recent past history. He challenged for the seat as an Independent in 2006, and notched three-tenths of one percent of the vote.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

MI-Gov: Pair of Polls Heartening to GOP In Michigan Guv Race
A new poll (PDF) from Inside Michigan Politics by MRG says that the GOP Primary is an almost unbelievable toss-up, with three candidates within a single point. The survey has state AG Mike Cox and Congressman Pete Hoekstra tied at 21%, with businessman Rick Snyder a single point behind at 20%. Undecided is the big leader on the Democratic side, as state House Speaker Andy Dillon leads with 21%. Two-thirds of voters, however, remain undecided. Perhaps not surprisingly given the relatively low name recognition of the candidates on the Democratic side, the polls give clear leads for the GOP candidates, with leads ranging from 15-22 points (which seems rather generous to the Red Team, when compared with other pollsters).

Interestingly, the same pollster (MRG) conducted a separate poll for the Detroit Free Press, measuring the impact of a potential Independent candidacy for former GOP Congressman Joe Schwarz. The impact, when compared to the other MRG poll conducted for Inside Michigan Politics, is minimal: they only tested one matchup (Hoesktra-Dillon-Schwarz). While Hoekstra led by 16 points in the two-way tab for IMP, he leads Dillon by thirteen (35-22) in the three-way tab, with Schwarz nabbing 14%.

NY-Gov: Siena Poll Has Cuomo Up Huge over Old or New GOPers
Whether the Republican nominee is longtime Republican Rick Lazio (the former Congressman and Senate aspirant) or potential nouveau Republican Steve Levy (the Suffolk County Executive), Democratic state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has a massive lead in the battle to be the state's Governor. So says the latest poll from Siena College. Levy, from the poll, clearly has work to do both in the primary and general elections: he trails Lazio by a 45-16 margin in a prospective GOP primary, and goes on to be blasted by Cuomo in a prospective general election by a 63-16 margin (with 4% for potential Indy candidate Warren Redlich). Lazio only does marginally better against Cuomo, there the margin is a mere thirty-eight points (59-21-3).

In further bad news for the potential Levy candidacy, the state's Conservative Party elected by a 13-5 margin to endorse Lazio, setting up a potential peril for Levy. Lazio has already made it clear that he will run on the Conservative line, with or without a placement on the GOP line.

THE RAS-A-PALOOZA

Time to recap the wave of Rasmussen data that has accumulated over the past several days. Most of them, as would be expected, are pretty rosy for the GOP. In other news, the sun is expected to set in the West this evening, and ice is still cold.

AZ-Sen (R): John McCain 48%, J.D. Hayworth 41%
AZ-Gov (R): Dean Martin 21%, Gov. Jan Brewer 20%, Buzz Mills 19%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Kendrick Meek (D) 25%, Charlie Crist (I) 22%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 43%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%
GA-Gov: Karen Handel (R) 42%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%
GA-Gov: John Oxendine (R) 41%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%
GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 40%, Eric Johnson (R) 38%
GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson (R) 52%, Generic Democrat 31%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 55%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 36%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 57%, Bob Krause (D) 31%
IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 57%, Tom Fiegen (D) 28%
VT-Sen: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 58%, Generic Republican 33%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  www.aticketforrush.com reached $975:D (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GreenSooner, KingofSpades

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:49:01 PM PDT

  •  Who are the Iowans.... (0+ / 0-)

    ....who vote for both Harkin and Grassley, both of whom seem to win very comfortably every time they're up for reelection?

    Stop Obama's Wars Now! Bring the Troops Home!

    by GreenSooner on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:50:51 PM PDT

    •  Maybe they like having (0+ / 0-)

      at least one Senator in the majority party no matter who holds the majority.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:53:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Like seniority power... (0+ / 0-)

      If you want to beat either you need to run an youngster against them that could rebuild seniority.  I do think they like having a high seniority Senator on each side as well.

      Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

      by Jonze on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:59:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looks like GA-Gov is shaping up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    to be a first-tier race if even Scotty Ras shows Barnes and Oxendine tied.  I wonder what less GOP-friendly polls will have to say?

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:51:28 PM PDT

  •  Is Hoekstra running for both House... (0+ / 0-)

    and Governor or does he have to choose?  Does he have a primary challenger for his house seat or is he trying to keep that clear to pull a Bayh and have the party give him the nod should he not win the Gov primary?

    I think Snyder has a real chance - his ads have really caught peoples attention.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:51:52 PM PDT

    •  He will resign his house seat... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jonze

      You have to pick one.

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:52:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What if he loses the primary? (0+ / 0-)

        Can he run in both primaries for House seat and Gov? I get that if he wins the primary he'll resign, but assuming the House and Gov primaries are on the same day - did he have to pick which one to run in?  What if he wins both?  He's just step down from the House spot and the party would name a replacement?  

        Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

        by Jonze on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:56:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          That's the risk of forfeiting your seat for a chance at higher office...

          You can only run in one election...

          DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
          LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

          by LordMike on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:03:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  What happened to the good old days... (0+ / 0-)

      ...when Huey long could serve simultaneously as US Senator and Governor of Louisiana!

      Stop Obama's Wars Now! Bring the Troops Home!

      by GreenSooner on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:53:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP is releasing their WI poll tommorrow... (0+ / 0-)

    They sure picked an awful weekend to poll...

    Anyways, they are hinting that it's a close race between Thompson and Feingold, which isn't good...  we need positive polling data, not Rasmussen confirmers...

    DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
    LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

    by LordMike on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:52:11 PM PDT

  •  The Chamber of Commerce won't support a Repeal (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trix, wishingwell, pademocrat

    of HCR

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Their statement

    But Donohue made it clear the chamber won't be spending any of its substantial war chest on a campaign, favored by Republicans, to repeal the legislation. The Washington-based chamber, which represents three million businesses of all sizes, spent heavily in an unsuccessful effort to kill the health bill. Minutes after Democrats won passage in the House Sunday night, the chamber issued a statement calling the vote "a wrong and unfortunate decision that ignores the will of the American people."
    But once the bill becomes law, Donohue said, "If people want to try and repeal, let them. We're not going to spend any capital on that." Instead, he said the chamber will push for changes to the bill when it enters the regulatory stage, always a key pressure point.

    In the 2,800-page bill "you've probably got 15,000 pages of regulation before this is finished," he said. "We have to see what we can do to deal with some of the issues that seem most egregious," and mount challenges in Congress and potentially in the courts, he said.

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:52:21 PM PDT

  •  I suppose there are a lot of folks named (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    npb7768, Captain Antelope

    Dean Martin in the world.  Still, that name jumped out at me.

    Dick Cheney now has a heart attack for each deferment.

    by jazzmaniac on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:52:32 PM PDT

  •  What has Pataki been doing since he left office? (0+ / 0-)

    More shady land deals in Florida?

    •  I can't tell you, he's never in the news (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Trix, wishingwell, pademocrat

      Which is part of why I'm sure he's not running. You'd think he'd at least be cutting ribbons at Safeway, or choosing balls with Yolanda Vega, to remind people he's still alive.

      The Times article gave the impression Levy was a real factor in the Gov race. But then they said the same about Ford and the Senate race. I guess it's time to begin from the perspective of pure skepticism on their political reporting.  

      "I am not guilty, I am not ashamed and I am not finished." --Lt. Dan Choi, 3/19/10

      by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:18:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tarkanian who? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Purdue219

    Nobody here in NV even knows who he is.  The only reason why his name sounds remotely familiar to people is because his father coached my school's team when we won the NCAA basketball tournament 20 years ago.

  •  Thanks for Rasapolluza! Just skipped them!THx! (0+ / 0-)

    so glad you marginalized them in bulk at the bottom.that made it easier to skip!

  •  AZ Sen. (D) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jonze

    There is a possible challenge to Rodney Glassman in the Arizona Democratic primary. Nan Stockholm Walden, also from Southern Arizona, is considering a run. Glassman has been posting here and has gained some supporters on this site. Since both are relative unknowns, the question for me will be: Who is more progressive

    •  I hope there isn't a primary... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Azazello

      because the Dem candidate will have to be a moderate and a primary will cause both to veer left and will leave them less likely to win come the general.  

      I'm really impressed with Glassman, I like the idea that it would be a David vs Goliath fight.

      Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

      by Jonze on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:31:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Until election in May for Murtha's seat, is (0+ / 0-)

    that seat empty? Does that district have no representative or has a Temp filling in until the election which I assume is on the PA May primary ballot in his district?

  •  It doesn't look too rosy for the GOP (0+ / 0-)

    with the polls by Ras.  Iowa seems about right, as does Georgia's governor's race.

    The only Ras poll that seems off would be the Florida Senate Race.

    Seems to me like Ras was pretty good this week, objectively speaking.

  •  CA-19 - Good news on Pombo. (0+ / 0-)

    I'd like to think that no one wants him in Congress any more.  One of the most noxious little toadies every.

    Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden, 8/30/09)

    by Land of Enchantment on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 09:40:19 PM PDT

  •  What's new from Ohio? (0+ / 0-)

    Now I have to punch a few more buttons to find out. I didn't used to be a couch potato or a web surfer. What is this, tough love?

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