The media have a new story with respect to Stupak: Poor Bart is being threatened by nutcases. In terms of America's civility it's a tragic reflection of how low the disenfranchised minority will stoop, and of course it is getting Stupak back on television again.
But the real Stupak story is yet to be told. He has to move on...and his road isn't an easy one. Please follow me over the fold to see why Stupak has demonstrated over the past few weeks that he is both math challenged and tone deaf. It's a sort of a test, which I'm sure readers will pass but not so sure about Bart.
His political career is over. To understand that, you have to understand the numbers as they apply to Michigan primary law and the psyche of Northern Michigan.
Northern Michigan is Republican country. It's predominantly Catholic. But it's also the realm of the retired union member--a vestigial remnant of the days when the auto worker was paid enough to buy a home "up north" and transferred voting (homestead property tax benefits) to that cottage upon retirement. Bart Stupak has remained in office for many years by walking a thin line by being totally progressive on labor and social issues, but being "pro life" to satisfy the conscience-driven middle.
Until this year. Stupak blackmailed the health care reform effort twice. In both cases he wasn't thinking. (I'm not sure he's capable of deep logic.) He was acting as the agent of the conservative Catholic Bishops, who literally wrote his position and negotiated his final capitulation.
That might make mathematical sense in the general election. But it is downright stupid in the Michigan August primary. Here's why:
Problem #1:
First a primer on Michigan law. On the first Tuesday in August, anyone who wants to vote does. So the people who are so conservative that they think Stupak is a traitor walk in and vote for his opponent in order to get (they think) a weaker candidate for the general. The progressives who think Bart has blackmailed the House one time too often show up too. Almost no one in the middle shows up for the August primary in Michigan unless there's a Senior Millage to maintain "meals on wheels" on that ballot. Stupak is gone! Connie wins. Then, of course, Connie has a real challenge. There will initially be a Republican majority in the polls. But there are some strong positions that she can take that will win over the folks in the general.
Problem #2: Count your friends AND your enemies
Once upon a time the dream of every Michigan auto worker was to get a "home up north." Buy a cheap hunting camp, put improvements in it every year, and move there upon retirement. There was a solid base of former union workers in mostly-conservative Northern Michigan to keep them real. Stupak had a good record with those folks. But today there aren't enough auto workers left to make a difference and with the unions and AARP endorsing the health care bill, Stupak didn't make many friends last week. His voting base has shrunk enormously in recent years. The Bishops who wrote and negotiated his position on HCR don't vote. He's walked out on a plank, and the American nuns are diligently sawing away at it. His remark about not listening to nuns didn't help much, either.
Problem #3: The truth no one will speak (because they are paid)
Stupak has been a conspirator in covering up the insidious effects of toxic waste generators in Northern Michigan for many years. This is represented by real people. It's easy to follow the breadcrumbs to explain this. Lafarge Corporation owns the biggest industry in Alpena, MI--a 150 year old quarry and cement processing plant. It's been investigated for years. EPA has documented arsenic, mercury and chromium in the soil. The old part of town is a literal brown field. The disability rate in Alpena is 4 percent higher than the state average--and that's saying a lot for a seemingly idyllic rural community. But no one will speak of it, or even publish a LTE. Lafarge makes huge political contributions, mostly to Republicans, but the biggest single recipient of its PAC money is none other than Bart Stupak.
Problem #4: Extra Credit--Be careful what you ask for.
So Stupak loses the August primary. What next? The fall leaves are lovely in Northern Michigan in October. It will take a literal army to keep that seat. No Massachusetts apathy allowed.