First, if you have never been to Jerusalem, and driven through its neighborhoods, you need to take a moment to realize you are speaking about a subject that you cannot really understand. You are almost like a Global Warming denier who talks about the subject matter as if they are a climatologist, but really only watch the weather channel before work and fox news after work (and work happens to be on an oilrig).
I understand everyone has passionate opinions, but I am in East Jerusalem right now looking over the wall, its 1/2 mile straight down the hill from my cousin's home, and that perspective is important. That wall was not there a few years ago, and it has not made the city entirely safe (as evident by me having to walk with my cousin to walk her dog at night due to some crimes against women here lately). However, it does provide a piece of mind that is vital to the peace process on the Israeli side. Funny enough, it had the opposite effect on the minds of the Palestinians. The goal was to prevent extremists from killing Israelis and therefore allow Israeli troops to get out of the daily lives of Palestinians. I sat at this window during the Gaza invasion a few years ago and watched the Israeli Arabs protest by lighting tires on fire, firing guns in the streets and lighting homemade firecrackers to make a lot of noise. Israeli police, not the army, moved in and fired tear gas to quiet the town. These people, though living on the other side of the wall, are actually Israeli Arabs, not Palestinians and they are citizens of Israel. However, that section of East Jerusalem is slated to be part of the capital of the future Palestinian state, putting the residents in an awkward situation. While they have compassion for their Palestinian brothers, they like being residents of a more open, capitalistic, and relatively "free" society. The Israeli Arabs may have to become part of a homeland with people like themselves, but who do not share their values and this puts them in a very hard position.
Now as I look over the wall, I see and hear nothing. All is at peace in Jerusalem (though unfortunately not in Gaza). The wall has removed most Israeli presence from the daily lives of the Israeli Arabs here, and many of them work on this side of the wall in restaurants, as shop owners, cab drivers, at the university and many other parts of this society. The wall is working, but it may have come too late, as Israelis have become bitter and more hateful over the past 20 years, leading to the resurgence of Netenyahu. This brings me to current events and the future of East Jerusalem.
I think OBAMA was CORRECT for criticizing Israel for doing something that embarrassed the US when we are trying to set a new tone with the Muslims of the world. I was born in New York and still live there. My loyalties are entirely with the United States. My Israeli family members are all American citizens who hate how conservative their country has become. They used to believe that Israel and Palestine could coexist side by side, but their position is unfortunately beginning to change. The problem stems from a lack of US involvement in forcing Israelis to make difficult choices about the future of a land they fought so hard for.
Israelis have spent their lives listening to the passionate stories of Holocaust survivors, describing what can happen to people who are not strong enough to defend themselves. Israelis need another voice in their heads as well, from someone they trust. Someone who can help them see the similarities of the Jewish people's history of oppression and the current oppressed lives of the Palestinians. Yes, the Jews argue that they were attacked repeatedly by Arab nations. Yes, they all remember the deaths of loved ones in horrific senseless suicide attacks, and yes, they remember agreeing in 1948 to a side-by-side homeland with the Palestinians, with Jerusalem as an international city, only to have the Arabs say no and attempt to exterminate the Jews from this land. However, they also need to see that the majority of Palestinians are uneducated, severely poor and have been told stories their entire lives of the horrible Israelis and their thirst for blood. As the educated, wealthier, and free society, it is the moral imperative of the Israelis to do things they do not want to do for the greater good of their lives and that of the Palestinians. It is the United States job to force Israel to make hard unpopular choices. We all know that putting things off is the way of most nations, including our own. How long did we wait to tackle and pass health care and how long will we wait to finally deal with our national debt and the eventually loss of Medicare and social security due to insolvency? Sure, the health care bill is not even close to perfect, but it is a step in a long road towards the goal of actually having the best health care in the world instead of just saying that we do. We needed someone to push us, just like Israel does now. Obama need to force Israel to start conceding things, even small things to start moving the process in the right direction.
This brings me to the problem of East Jerusalem. Israelis and Palestinians not only disagree on the future of Jerusalem, but they do not even agree on what land is considered part of Jerusalem. This is the answer, at least in the short term for solving the problem. The Arab sections of East Jerusalem that are near the West bank are already on the other side of the wall. The outskirts of Jerusalem, which Jews do not consider Jerusalem, but Palestinians do, should be part of the future Palestinian state. Places like Ma'aleh Adumim, just over the West Bank border will unquestionably remain part of Israel as 40,000 Israelis live in this completely modern city, and ones like it, but any remote or small settlement must be abandoned and the residents forcibly removed by the Israeli government who encouraged them to move there originally. This would be political suicide for any Israeli politician, so America must put Israel in a position that forces them to get it done. Obama, who has a 70% approval rating among Israelis and as high of a favorable opinion as an American can get in the Arab world, is in the best position to do it. Mr. President, be the voice of a positive future for both sides, be the bringer of hope as you were in your campaign and yes even be the eventual hated bringer of change (when both sides start to complain when the hard choice actually start to occur).
In the short term, East Jerusalem must remain part of Israel. The old border between East and West Jerusalem is lined with old buildings, riddled with bullet holes un-patched to remind the Israelis who know what they are of how things used to be before the cities unification in 1967. Now the barrier is unnoticeable, simply the opposite sides of the major road running through the middle of a seemingly normal city. If you were not told it used to be the border between Israel and Jordan, you would never know it. That is why it cannot become the barrier once again. It would be like Broadway in Manhattan becoming the border of two completely separate cities. The area in question is not as dense as Manhattan (obviously) but you would be shocked as how packed it is. Broadway does not even divide Manhattan in a meaningful way like a Houston Street sort of does. Likewise, the old border between East and West Jerusalem does not divide the city anymore either. Pieces of East Jerusalem are going to have to be carved out and Israel will have to displace a few people to make the Palestinian side continuous, but it will not resemble what is used to be 40 years ago.
The one thing that amazes me about coming here every year is how much changes so quickly. New construction is always occurring, new roads, hospitals, light rail systems (ok that one is 10+ years in the making, but there are train stop stations now along the tracks [along the road that used to be the border] so it looks much more complete than it looked a year ago), and expansion of existing communities happen so fast that it is mind boggling. This is why this process has to start soon. People here want their children to live in Jerusalem, but there are not enough houses, so they vote for politicians who pledge to build more homes. If this continues for much longer, it will become impossible to connect the Arab/Palestinian parts together in any meaningful way. Israelis do not really see there being a peace, they want it, but no longer believe in it, so they care less and less about the objections of foreigners and Palestinians about building homes for people (mostly Jews) who want to live here. This is why it is Important that the US condemns these building permits until a border is decided upon. Force a settlement freeze, not because that land will go to the Palestinians, but because it will force Israelis to make peace so they can start to build again to accommodate the natural increase in their population.
Finally, make the Palestinians lives better by pouring money into the West Bank for school, hospitals, and economic improvements. This is what Yitzhak Rabin attempted to do in the early 90s, which is why he was relatively popular among Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. I hope that in 30 years, most of the Palestinians, who are a very young society, remember good things about America and Israel and are educated enough to realize that their future is brighter with peace than without. It is only then could Jerusalem become an open city, leading to the fall of the walls. Until then, the rest of Jerusalem, including most of East Jerusalem will remain part of Israel, because that is the only way to make sure it is safe and open to members of all faiths to visit, even the Arabs who continue to pray there every day.
Update in response to some comments
War and Peace Index finds, "A majority of 66% supported the founding of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with land-swaps allowing Israel to keep large settlement blocs." Poll release on March 22, 2010)
Survey by J-Street finds, "Popularity for US President remains high at 59%, while support for Israeli prime minister drops to 44%. The poll also revealed that 82% of Jews support the US administration's effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the question of whether US criticism should have been expressed behind closed doors or in public, 71% responded that the US should maintain an active role, even if it means putting pressure on both sides at the cost of public disagreement." (Poll released on March 27, 2010)
Finally, I found 2 recent polls about Obama's support in Israel. One, released on the 19th of March found that,
A Dialog survey of 499 people on Wednesday and Thursday showed that seven out of 10 Israelis share a favorable view. The poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points
The other found that 56% of Israelis do not think that Obama is anti-Semetic (27% do) [Odd poll I know] Funny enough, only 36% of Israelis felt that Netanyahu was best suited to lead Israel.
The bigger issue is that a majority of Israelis do not want to stop construction in East Jerusalem. Only 41% want them to stop in response to US demands. (from the anti-Semetic poll above, though I have seen others with similar numbers). I see these numbers as close to US numbers about health care a few weeks ago. Obama needs to be more forceful and push for a year freeze on new settlements. Convince Israel to stop the 1,600 unit expansion as a show of good will (Truthfully, they are in an area that will most likely be part of Israel later and can be built then) and use the global support those actions will bring to insist the Palestinians sit down for formal negotiations. President Obama, get it done, because as you like to say, "it is the right thing to do"!
As for maps, I have put a link to the Olmert peace plan(which I do not personally agree with, and a link to 2 pictures (Pic 1 & pic 2) that show how difficult this process will be. However, note that the area near the old city is listed as Palestinian, but these people are the Israeli Arabs I mentioned before who are divided about what they want their future to be. The map shows them as simply Palestinians so it is hard to see why the current fence makes sense [poor wording, but I can not think of how else to say it.]
Update 2
I have been looking for credible statistics that include building permits for Jews and non-Jews in Jerusalem. Every site has different statistics about number of approved permits as well as the number of illegal building and how many and what percent of those illegal buildings are demolished. It is painfully obvious that these statistics are just being written in a way that favors the opinion of the author. If anyone can find all 3 statistics, please post them.
The only thing I found for sure is that,
After the 1967 war, Jerusalem’s population was 74 percent Jewish and 26 percent Arab. 40 years later, in 2007, Jerusalem’s population is 66 percent Jewish and 34 percent Arab. According to the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, the gap between the city’s Jewish and Arab population is narrowing by about 1 percentage point a year.
Update 3
I asked around about Israeli Arab building permits and was shown the next village over from Hebrew university. There is a Arab village with all new housing and more construction ongoing. I asked if it was legal, they said yes, but the will not allocate more land, just let them fill out the rest of the hill the village is on, so they are building up (greater than the traditional 3-4 story Palestianian home)
Also, my family was discussing the future city, and they seem open to sharing it, with East Jerusalem as their capital, but they were also talking about an ideal situation, noting that the reality is that this may never happen or ever get solved.