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If I'm not wrong and E Shinseki can beat to republican Lieutenant Governor J Aiona in today's diary, this would be the last diary in this series about Hawaii. They are not more republicans from Hawaii with enough level for be in this series. Later, in the unlikely (I think) case of C Djou win the special election for the House, I would include Djou in this series.

I think today's hypothetical contest is less likely for see in the future than the contest vs L Lingle, but I think this is an important reference because J Aiona appear in real polls as the republican frontrunner for the race for governor this year against N Abercrombie. Today's diary and many others link the series to the known real polls.

With low number of races, and the strongest democratic candidates running for all, we can tell the year seems not very difficult for the Democratic Party in Hawaii. The first work for democratic side comes with the special election for HI-01. After win that, nothing very difficult if we compare with other states.

I think high level losers (Governor, HI-01) will run for Lieutenant Governor in November making stronger the democratic ticket for Governor. The next Lieutenant Governor will be a key person in the elections for governor in 2018 or maybe before.

I'm so optimistic about Hawaii.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.

(*): Without take office still.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about gerrymander redistricting (allways finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home state. In this group will be the democrats over the state level included in the series by hold not one of the highest level offices in the country.

Still no-one.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

HI1: Daniel Ken Inouye: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 63- . USHRep 59-63.
CA1: Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72.
VT1: Bernard Sanders (Ind): NY VT 1941 Senator from Vermont 07- . USHRep 91-07. Lost for Senate 72 and 74. Lost for Governor 72, 76 and 86. Lost for House 88.
MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 24 votes = 06.389 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. C Grassley
  1. S Collins
  1. B Krolicki

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

VT2: Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.
MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
HI2: Neil Abercrombie: NY HI 1938 USHRep 86-87 91-10. Lost for Senate 70. Lost for House 86.
CA2: Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 15 votes = 03.444 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 17 votes = 04,608 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 16 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills
  1. C Smith
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

VT3: Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
CA3: Edmund Gerald Brown: CA 1938 Governor of California 75-83. CA Secretary of State 71-75. CA Attorney General 07-11. Lost for President 76 80 and 92. Lost for Senate 82.
HI3: Eric Ken Shinseki: HI 1942 Secretary of Veteran Affairs 09- .
MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 02.708 => Likely Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 23 votes = 04.375 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 19 votes = 04.649 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 10 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 23 votes = 05.362 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 12 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Whitman (R) after 20 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democrat
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R) after 20 votes = 05.917 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Leahy (D) vs B Dubie (R) after 12 votes = 06.250 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Nunes (R) after 13 votes = 06.282 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Schwarzenegger (R) after 14 votes = 06.444 => Leans D
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R) after 17 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democrat
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Leahy (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 16 votes = 07.083 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 23 votes = 07.246 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs K McCarthy (R) after 11 votes = 07.273 => Likely Democr
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 33 votes = 07.929 => Likely Democrat
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D D Hunter (R) after 11 votes = 08.333 => Likely Democrat
VT: P Leahy (D) vs T M Salmon (R) after 24 votes = 08.681 => Safe Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. D Heller
  1. J Gregg
  1. C Christie (vulnerable)
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)

All they first level politic targets for democrats

For mid level races (including too R+ states or districts):

2010 MID LEVEL RACES WHAT NEED MORE WORK IN DEMOCRATIC SIDE

I wish bold the next races because I think need more work. They are races in favourable constituencies for fight hard and not lose.

First remember is not assured still good democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in NY, CO, CT, MN, PA, MI and OH. All they will run in the ticket for governor and lieutenant governor.

For every group the last race what I include is the more dangerous or difficult for improve.

Safest races with some puntual risk.

- 1 For improve finding higher level candidates:
VT-SS D+13 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-ST D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-SA D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
NY-AG D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-AG D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-ST D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.

- 2 For improve fundraising:
WA-03 EVEN Poor D fundraising level still.
NC-08 R+1 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
NY-01 EVEN Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
CA-11 R+1 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
OH-13 D+5 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.

- 3 Races in this group with bad last poll:
Races called "Toss-Up" in this group without poll still: FL-08, FL-24, WV-01, OH-15, VA-02, CO-04, PA-11 and NY-24.
Pro-republican pollsters are giving small leads to republicans in: IL-08, IL-14, NV-03 and VA-11.
NH-01 EVEN Decent R challenger with decent fundraising. Bad poll.
IL-11 R+1 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Bad poll.
OH-01 D+1 Strong R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch vs former inc. Bad poll.

Fight to Safest races, if improve something.

- 1 For improve finding higher level candidates:
No chance in this moment. Previously some chance in PA-07, AR-LG, OH-SA, CA-IC and CA-AG.

- 2 For improve fundraising:
CA-IC D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Low disad f.
PA-12 R+1 Poor R candidate with decent fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
NY-23 R+1 Decent R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch. High ? disadvantage f.
AR-01 R+8 Poor D fundraising level, Poor R candidates with poor fund, Low ? disadvant f.
AR-LG R+9 Poor R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.

- 3 Races in this group with bad last poll:
No-one.

Fight group races.

- 1 For improve leaving not chance to bad surprises:
CA-AG D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Decent R candidat with good fund.
LA-02 D+25 R incumbent, High D disadvantage fundraising.

Democrats are fighting very hard in all other races of this group.

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 12:20 AM PDT.

Poll

HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R)

30%4 votes
15%2 votes
7%1 votes
7%1 votes
0%0 votes
15%2 votes
23%3 votes

| 13 votes | Vote | Results

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