If you define "power conference" as a conference that any team (other than a power team) would join if invited (given reasonable geographic considerations), and a power team as a team that any conference would love to have (other than perhaps a power conference) if the opportunity presented itself, there are really only two power conferences (the Big 10 and the SEC), and only a handful of power teams. While the Big 10 may poach from the Big 12, for example, I can’t imagine a Big 10 team leaving for the Big 12. Likewise, I can’t imagine a team leaving the SEC for the ACC or Big 12.
Many power teams are already in a power conference (Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, etc.). They aren’t remotely likely to move. The question, then, is what might power teams from non-power conferences do?
Specifically, we are talking about Notre Dame, Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Florida State and Miami (USC won’t change conferences due to its geographic constraints).
Four of those power teams are in the Big 12, one is independent, and two are in the ACC. There hasn’t been much discussion of those power teams changing conferences because we have historically viewed conferences as groups of 12 teams or less. The Big 10 may be about to change all of that.
If the Big 10 goes to 16 teams (as it is reported to be considering), the SEC almost has to follow (and indeed now says it would). The SEC can’t permit the only other power conference to dwarf the SEC in size, television market scope, and revenue. If the SEC and Big 10 both go to 16 teams, it is hard to think they do so without first inviting the power teams to join.
For football, the power teams are the foundation of their conferences (particularly those in the Big 12). If the Big 12 teams were to leave to the SEC and/or Big 10, the Big 12 would crumble. At that point, all remaining teams are left to fend for themselves. Given that the Big 10 and SEC would have a full allotment of teams, remaining Big 12 teams would have to hope for a partnership with the Pac 10 (forming a new Pac 16). That would put teams like Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado in the Pac 16, while some, like Iowa State and Baylor, might find themselves homeless. The SEC, alternatively, might look to the ACC to expand, likely starting with Florida State and Miami. Would they also then take two basketball schools (possibly Duke and UNC) to become arguably the best football and basketball conference? If so, the Big 12 survives and the ACC crumbles. If the Big 10 takes from the Big East, the Big East (for football at least) crumbles.
I don’t think people appreciate the significant changes that would come to college football if the Big 10 goes to 16 teams. An enormous restructuring would take place, and many current "haves" would find themselves as "have nots" in a hurry.
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