He's right.
Republican State Sen. Gilbert Baker predicted Saturday that his main rival for the Republican Senate nomination, Rep. John Boozman, would have trouble besting Democrat Bill Halter in the general election.
"I'm telling you, we run the risk of losing this, because Bill Halter's going to be the [Democratic] nominee," Baker told POLITICO following an Associated Press debate between the eight candidates vying for the GOP nomination.
Halter is trying to wrest the Democratic nomination from two-term Senator Blanche Lincoln.
"It's going to be Halter, and Halter scares me if Congressman Boozman's our nominee," Baker added.
Baker, who carries a blue tarp with him while he campaigns as a symbol of his opposition to the financial bailout, has an interest in making the case for Halter, who polls show trailing Lincoln, since they are both running on an anti-Washington message.
"As soon as Congressman Boozman prevails, guess what Bill Halter's going to do? D.C., not. Wall Street bailout, not. Deficits, Arkansas balanced budget. And we lose three bullets at that point. That's why I believe I need to be the nominee to carry this forward," Baker said.
This actually tracks my argument in favor of Halter. The current political climate is less anti-Democratic, than it is anti-incumbent. That's the reason Blanche Lincoln is DOA, whether in the primary or in the general. As an incumbent in a tough state, she's toast.
Bill Halter isn't a D.C. insider, thus he can run a populist general election campaign entirely against D.C.
Now, if Arkansas Republicans nominated one of their local nuts, that would make for a particularly tough general election, with both parties amping up the anti-DC rhetoric, and on that front, I'd give Republicans the edge -- they could argue that Halter would simply reinforce the unpopular incumbent Democratic majority.
But lucky for us, U.S. Rep. John Boozman has entered the fray and is the prohibitive favorite to win his party's nomination. He is solidly conservative, giving the other candidates vying for the nomination little room to teabag him from the Right. His money, name ID, and connections will carry the day.
But check it out -- with Boozman as the nominee, Halter is suddenly in great shape. Boozman plays the role of entrenched DC insider incumbent, while Halter can run his full-throated outsider populist campaign.
Our best shot to retain this seat in Democratic hands is for Halter to win the Democratic nomination, and for Boozman to win the Republican.
We can do something about the former:
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