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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4% (1/18-20 results)

Republican primary

Sue Lowden (R)      38
Danny Tarkanian (R) 28
Sharon Angle (R)    13
Other               12
Undecided            9

You know Harry Reid has his fingers crossed that Lowden can pull it off. Her inability to deal with her chicken-based health care plan would pay dividends all the way to November.

In the general:

Harry Reid (D)      41 (42)
Sue Lowden (R)      45 (51)
Scott Ashjuan (TP)   4

Harry Reid (D)      41 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 43 (52)
Scott Ashjuan (TP)   6

Harry Reid (D)      41
Sharon Angle (R)    44
Scott Ashjuan (TP)   5

Clearly, Reid's chances has improved dramatically in our polling since January (an improvement that Rasmussen polling still doesn't show).

However, note why the race has tightened -- because Nevada voters are pulling back from the crazy GOP alternatives. Reid himself is still treading water barely above 50 percent, a danger zone for any incumbent, and particularly so in this anti-incumbent year.

Let's look at the favorabilities:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No Opinion

Harry Reid      37/52/10 (34/55/11)
Sue Lowden      42/34/24 (45/26/29)
Danny Tarkanian 44/33/23 (48/31/21)
Sharon Angle    41/29/30
Scott Ashjian   7/27/66

Reid is up a net six points, including plus nine among independents (26/61 to 32/58), but is still hugely unpopular. Sue Lowden is down a net 11 points, including a loss of 14 net points among independents (44/22 to 40/32), while Tarkanian is down a net six points.

Furthermore, Nevada is a pro-health care reform state:

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?

Support 44
Repeal  38

Among independents:

Support 34
Repeal  29

But best of all, we asked about LowdenCare:

As you may know, Sue Lowden has proposed reducing medical costs by having patients barter with their doctor instead of using health insurance. Under Lowden's barter proposal, patients would negotiate directly with doctors, offering services or goods such as painting the doctor's home or giving the doctor a chicken, in exchange for medical treatment.

QUESTION: Do you think Lowden's proposal is a realistic way to bring medical costs down for most families?

      Yes   No  Not Sure
ALL    14   81     5
DEM     5   91     4
REP    27   68     5
IND     7   87     6

QUESTION: Does Sue Lowden's proposal make you more or less likely to vote for her?

      More  Less  Not Sure
ALL    12    36    52
DEM     5    45    50
REP    23    28    49
IND     6    30    64

It's good to see that a quarter of Nevada Republicans are so blindly partisan, as to think an utterly ridiculous idea is "realistic". Unfortunately for Lowden and her state's GOP, no one else is really buying it.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 12:40 PM PDT.

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