I ask this as part of my attempt to convince us that we are often somewhat arrogant about science and technology. I am especially aiming at those who believe we have a technological fix for every problem and also those who believe we know what to do to correct the mess we have made. Today I ran across this report:Whatever Happened to the Hole in the Ozone Layer? I am not going to defend the things reported here for I have no way of verifying or refuting what the article claims. I will simply comment as if it is accurate and we can go on from there. The report tells us good news and then bad news and it is the contrast and the lack of real understanding of what is going on that I want to focus on below. Please read on.
The good news is this:
Today, the ozone hole - actually a region of thinned ozone, not actually a pure hole - doesn't make headlines like it used to. The size of the hole has stabilized, thanks to decades of aerosol-banning legislation. But, scientists warn, some danger still remains.
First, the good news: Since the 1989 Montreal Protocol banned the use of ozone-depleting chemicals worldwide, the ozone hole has stopped growing. Additionally, the ozone layer is blocking more cancer-causing radiation than any time in a decade because its average thickness has increased, according to a 2006 United Nations report. Atmospheric levels of ozone-depleting chemicals have reached their lowest levels since peaking in the 1990s, and the hole has begun to shrink.
Congratulations to the world for doing something positive here. I hope we will see less skin cancer as and cataracts as a result. Even to a skeptic like me this says that world wide education and action can make a difference.
So what about the bad news? Well there is some:
Now the bad news: The ozone layer has also thinned over the North Pole. This thinning is predicted to continue for the next 15 years due to weather-related phenomena that scientists still cannot fully explain, according to the same UN report . And, repairing the ozone hole over the South Pole will take longer than previously expected, and won't finish until between 2060 and 2075. Scientists now understand that the size of the ozone hole varies dramatically from year to year, which complicates attempts to accurately predict the hole's future size.
Interestingly, recent studies have shown that the size of the ozone hole affects the global temperature. Closing the ozone hole actually speeds up the melting of the polar ice caps, according to a 2009 study from Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.
So even though environmentally friendly laws have successfully reversed the trend of ozone depletion, the lingering effects of aerosol use, and the link between the ozone hole and global warming, virtually ensure that this problem will persist until the end of the century.
That's right. We can't seem to get it right no matter what we do. We can not run a controlled experiment here to figure out what we might have done different. I think there is a deep message here and it is simple: We can not control the result of what we do when we intervene. Our activity on this planet has consequences that go beyond our understanding of the earth system. As we plan for fixes and new technologies and other band aids we go on multiplying, consuming, chopping down trees and paving, spilling oil and then burning it, and so on. This report should cause us to stop and think.
As we think we need to think more holistically. there are no magic bullets and no simple one cause one effect events in a complex system like the one we live in. Our ability to fix depends on our total understanding of the system so that all the consequences of any action can be evaluated.
Am I say we should not have limited aerosols? I only ask this anticipating someone asking it in a comment. Of course I am not. What I am saying is that we need to anticipate what is coming and make corrections to our behavior well before the situation reaches crisis stage. I say this thinking about the drastic limits we must put on our greed and consumption. We need to try to protect our water supplies before they are gone. We need to stop killing the soil before it becomes impossible to feed everyone without causing all sorts of other harm by using petroleum based fertilizers etc., etc. The list goes on and on.
Congratulations to all of us on this accomplishment. It shows we can change our behavior. Now lets get really serious and do all the other things we need to do.